Predicting the Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of <i>Oxytenanthera abyssinica</i> ( <i>A. Richard</i>): Its Implication for Future Restoration of Dryland Ecosystem

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Download Full-text

Predicting the Impacts of Future Climate Change on the Distribution of Oxytenanthera abyssinica ( A. Richard): Its Implication for Future Restoration of Dryland Ecosystem

Spatial and Temporal Downscaling of Atmospheric Components from GCMs for Historical Reconstruction and/or for Future Climate Change Study

Responses of Irish Vegetation to Future Climate Change

Future climate change and its impacts over small island states

The Inhuman Semiotics of a Disappearing Future: Climate Change and Family Feuds Review of Tom Cohen, Claire Colebrook and J. Hillis Miller, Theory and the Disappearing Future: On de Man, on Benjamin (Oxon: Routledge, 2012), 176 pp. ISBN: 978-0415604536

Supplemental Material to the A&WMA 2008 Critical Review "Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action"

Faculty Opinions recommendation of Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

Faculty Opinions recommendation of Human deforestation outweighs future climate change impacts of sedimentation on coral reefs.

Incorporating International Environmental Legal Principles into Future Climate Change Instruments

ANALYTICAL SOLUTIONS AS A MEANS TO INVESTIGATE PAST AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, GROUNDWATER FLOW, AND SUBSURFACE THERMAL REGIMES

Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Export Citation Format