AgriLOVE: agriculture, land-use and technical change in an evolutionary, agent-based model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Coronese ◽  
Martina Occelli ◽  
Francesco Lamperti ◽  
Andrea Roventini
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Calum Brown ◽  
Ian Holman ◽  
Mark Rounsevell

Abstract. Land use models operating at regional to global scales are almost exclusively based on the single paradigm of economic optimisation. Models based on different paradigms are known to produce very different results, but these are not always equivalent or attributable to particular assumptions. In this study, we compare two pan-European land use models that are based on the same integrated modelling framework and utilise the same climatic and socio-economic scenarios, but which adopt fundamentally different model paradigms. One of these is a constrained optimising economic-equilibrium model and the other is a stochastic agent-based model. We run both models for a range of scenario combinations and compare their projections of spatial and aggregate land use change and ecosystem service supply. We find that the agent-based model projects more multifunctional and heterogeneous landscapes in most scenarios, providing a wider range of ecosystem services at landscape scales, as agents make individual, time-dependent decisions that reflect economic and non-economic motivations. This tendency also results in food shortages under certain scenario conditions. The optimisation model, in contrast, maintains food supply through intensification of agricultural production in the most profitable areas, sometimes at the expense of active management in large, contiguous parts of Europe. We relate the principal differences observed to underlying model assumptions, and hypothesise that optimisation may be appropriate in scenarios that allow for coherent political and economic control of land systems, but not in scenarios where economic and other scenario conditions prevent the normal functioning of price signals and responses. In these circumstances, agent-based modelling allows explicit consideration of behavioural processes, but in doing so provides a highly flexible account of land system development that is harder to link to underlying assumptions. We suggest that structured comparisons of parallel, transparent but paradigmatically distinct models are an important method for better understanding the potential scope and uncertainties of future land use change.


Land ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 1110-1137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deng Ding ◽  
David Bennett ◽  
Silvia Secchi

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 101-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pongchai Dumrongrojwatthana ◽  
Christophe Le Page ◽  
Nantana Gajaseni ◽  
Guy Trébuil

PLoS ONE ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. e0190506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Dislich ◽  
Elisabeth Hettig ◽  
Jan Salecker ◽  
Johannes Heinonen ◽  
Jann Lay ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Shima Nabinejad ◽  
Holger Schüttrumpf

Reducing the probability of flooding by flood defence structures might not be successful without appropriate actions taken in order to mitigate flood damages. Moreover, success depends on actions at both governmental and individual levels. Therefore, farmers as the inhabitant of flooding areas may contribute to flood management in terms of land use policies which lead to communication, human interaction, and adaptation. However, these social behaviors have not taken into account in flood management studies due to their complex nature and human has been only considered as the receptor of flooding without paying attention to multiple feedbacks over time horizons with a dynamic approach. In our study, we overcome this deficiency by employing Agent Based Model (ABM) of land use policy in flood risk management and address challenges regarding social interactions in this research area. Our Agent Based Model includes perspectives from engineering, decision making, and socio-economics allowing to model human-flood interactions. In this model, farmers are considered as individuals whose decisions depend on climatic conditions, crop yields, costs and prices, flood damage, personal risk perception, and their social interactions. This is achieved by integrating three main modules including hydrological module, flood analysis module, and decision making module in the frame of Agent Based Model. This paper has shed some light on main concepts of our Agent Based Model including the developed methodology, main modules, required information, and initial results. It also summarizes the components of the modules and the governed interactions.


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