scholarly journals Mechanism of Optimal Time-Course COVID-19 Vaccine Prioritization Based on Non-Markovian Steady-State Prediction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi Feng ◽  
Liang Tian ◽  
Changsong Zhou
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mi Feng ◽  
Liang Tian ◽  
Changsong Zhou

Vaccination is essential for controlling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. An effective time-course strategy for the allocation of COVID-19 vaccines is crucial given that the global vaccine supply will still be limited in some countries/regions in the near future and that mutant strains have emerged and will continue to spread worldwide. Both asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission have played major roles in the COVID-19 pandemic, which can only be properly described as a typical non-Markovian process. However, the prioritization of vaccines in the non-Markovian framework still lacks sufficient research, and the underlying mechanism of the time-course vaccine allocation optimization has not yet been uncovered. In this paper, based on an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated through clinical and epidemiological data, we propose optimal vaccination strategies (OVS) through steady-state prediction in the non-Markovian framework. This OVS outperforms other empirical vaccine prioritization approaches in minimizing cumulative infections, cumulative deaths, or years of life lost caused by the pandemic. We found that there exists a fast decline in the prevention efficiency of vaccination if vaccines are solely administered to a selected age group, which indicates that the widely adopted strategy to continuously vaccinate high-risk group is not optimal. Through mathematical analysis of the model, we reveal that dynamic vaccine allocations to combinations of different age groups is necessary to achieve optimal vaccine prioritization. Our work not only provides meaningful references for vaccination in countries currently lacking vaccines and for vaccine allocation strategies to prevent mutant strains in the future, but also reveals the mechanism of dynamic vaccine allocation optimization, forming a theoretical and modelling framework empirically applicable to the optimal time-course prioritization.


1989 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
pp. 1280-1286 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Uchimura ◽  
E. Cherubini ◽  
R. A. North

1. Intracellular recordings were made from neurons in slices cut from the rat nucleus accumbens septi. Membrane currents were measured with a single-electrode voltage-clamp amplifier in the potential range -50 to -140 mV. 2. In control conditions (2.5 mM potassium), the resting membrane potential of the neurons was -83.4 +/- 1.1 (SE) mV (n = 157). Steady state membrane conductance was voltage dependent, being 34.8 +/- 1.7 nS (n = 25) at -100 mV and 8.0 +/- 0.7 nS (n = 25) at -60 mV. 3. Barium (1 microM) markedly reduced the inward rectification and caused a small inward current (40.6 +/- 8.7 pA, n = 8) at the resting potential. These effects became larger with higher barium concentrations, and, in 100 microM barium, the current-voltage relation was straight. 4. The block of the inward current by barium (at -130 mV) occurred with an exponential time course; the time constant was approximately 1 s at 1 microM barium and less than 90 ms with 100 microM. Strontium had effects similar to those of barium, but 1000-fold higher concentrations were required. Cesium chloride (2 mM) and rubidium chloride (2 mM) also blocked the inward rectification; their action reached steady state within 50 ms. 5. It is concluded that the nucleus accumbens neurons have a potassium conductance with many features of a typical inward rectifier and that this contributes to the potassium conductance at the resting potential.


1978 ◽  
Vol 44 (6) ◽  
pp. 877-881 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. Hickson ◽  
H. A. Bomze ◽  
J. O. Hollozy

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of endurance exercise training on the time course of the increase in VO2 toward steady state in response to submaximal constant load work. Seven men participated in a strenuous program of endurance exercise for 40 min/day, 6 days/wk for 10 wk. Their average VO2max increased from 3.29 liters before training to 4.53 liters at the end of the training program. VO2 was measured continuously on a breath-by-breath basis at work rates requiring 40%, 50%, 60%, or 70% of VO2max before training. After training the subjects were retested both at the same absolute and the same relative work rates. The increases in VO2 toward steady state occurred more rapidly in the trained than in the untrained state both at the same absolute and at the same relative work rates. The finding that O2 uptake rises to meet O2 demand more rapidly in the trained than in the untrained state provides evidence that the working muscles become less hypoxic at the onset of exercise of the same intensity after training.


1992 ◽  
Vol 263 (2) ◽  
pp. E400-E415 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mari

A simple tracer-based method for calculating the rate of appearance of endogenous substances in the non-steady state, free from the inconsistencies of Steele's equation, is still lacking. This paper presents a method based on a two-compartment model by which the rate of appearance can be calculated with only a modest increase in complexity over Steele's approach. An equation is developed where the rate of appearance is expressed as a sum of three terms: a steady-state term, a term for the first compartment, and a term for the second compartment. The formula employs three parameters and makes the relationship between rate of appearance and specific activity changes explicit. An equation is also provided for estimating the error of the method in each individual run. The algorithm can be implemented with a spreadsheet on a personal computer. Simulated and experimental data obtained by the hyperinsulinemic euglycemic glucose clamp technique were used as a test. The accuracy with which the time course of glucose production could be reconstructed was clearly better than that using Steele's equation. Marked negative values for endogenous glucose output were calculated with Steele's equation but not with the new method. The characteristics of generality, simplicity, and accuracy and the availability of an error estimate make this new method suitable for routine application to non-steady-state tracer analysis.


1995 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
pp. 1799-1810 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Sawczuk ◽  
R. K. Powers ◽  
M. D. Binder

1. We studied spike frequency adaptation of motoneuron discharge in the rat hypoglossal nucleus using a brain stem slice preparation. The characteristics of adaptation in response to long (60 s) injected current steps were qualitatively similar to those observed previously in cat hindlimb motoneurons. The discharge rate typically exhibited a rapid initial decline, characterized by a linear frequency-time relation, followed by a gradual exponential decline that continued for the duration of current injection. However, a more systematic, quantitative analysis of the data revealed that there were often three distinct phases of the adaptation rather than two. 2. The three phases of adaptation (initial, early, and late) were present in at least one 60-s trial of repetitive firing in all but a small number of motoneurons. Initial adaptation was limited to the first few spikes except in a few trials (7%) in which there was no initial adaptation. The time course of the subsequent decline in rate could be adequately described by a single-exponential function in about half of the trials (48%). In the remaining trials this subsequent decline in frequency was better described as the sum of two exponential functions: an early phase, lasting < 2 s, and a late phase, which lasted for the duration of the discharge period. 3. The magnitude of initial adaptation was correlated with the initial firing frequency (i.e., the reciprocal of the 1st interspike interval). The magnitudes of the early and late phases of adaptation were correlated with the firing frequency reached at the end of initial adaptation. Neither the magnitudes nor the time courses of the three phases were correlated with other membrane properties such as input resistance, rheobase, or repetitive firing threshold. 4. The slope of the frequency-current (f-I) curve was steeper in the initial phase (first 2-5 spikes) than in either the early (< 2 s) or late (> 2 s) phases of adaptation as previously reported by other investigators. In the absence of early adaptation, a steady state for the f-I slope was reached by 0.7-1 s, the time typically reported in studies of repetitive discharge. However, when early adaptation was present (50% of the trials), a steady-state value for the f-I slope was not reached until the cell had discharged for > 1 s. 5. To characterize the time course of firing rate recovery from the adaptive processes, the current was turned off for periods of < or = 10 s during the course of a 60-s trial.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Wang ◽  
Blair Kaneshiro ◽  
C. Benjamin Strauber ◽  
Lindsey Hasak ◽  
Quynh Trang H. Nguyen ◽  
...  

AbstractEEG has been central to investigations of the time course of various neural functions underpinning visual word recognition. Recently the steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP) paradigm has been increasingly adopted for word recognition studies due to its high signal-to-noise ratio. Such studies, however, have been typically framed around a single source in the left ventral occipitotemporal cortex (vOT). Here, we combine SSVEP recorded from 16 adult native English speakers with a data-driven spatial filtering approach—Reliable Components Analysis (RCA)—to elucidate distinct functional sources with overlapping yet separable time courses and topographies that emerge when contrasting words with pseudofont visual controls. The first component topography was maximal over left vOT regions with a shorter latency (approximately 180 ms). A second component was maximal over more dorsal parietal regions with a longer latency (approximately 260 ms). Both components consistently emerged across a range of parameter manipulations including changes in the spatial overlap between successive stimuli, and changes in both base and deviation frequency. We then contrasted word-in-nonword and word-in-pseudoword to test the hierarchical processing mechanisms underlying visual word recognition. Results suggest that these hierarchical contrasts fail to evoke a unitary component that might be reasonably associated with lexical access.


Blood ◽  
1994 ◽  
Vol 83 (12) ◽  
pp. 3808-3814
Author(s):  
HJ Sutherland ◽  
CJ Eaves ◽  
PM Lansdorp ◽  
GL Phillips ◽  
DE Hogge

Peripheral blood cells (PBCs) collected by leukapheresis after progenitor mobilization with chemotherapy and growth factors have been used successfully to replace marrow autografts in protocols requiring stem-cell support. Moreover, such transplants are often associated with more rapid recovery of blood cell counts than is routinely achieved with bone marrow. While conditions that mobilize colony-forming cells (CFCs) into the circulation are becoming increasingly well characterized, little information is available as to how these or other mobilizing treatments may influence the release of more primitive cells into the peripheral blood. To quantitate the peripheral blood content of such cells, we used the long-term culture-initiating cell (LTC-IC) assay, which detects a cell type that is able to produce progeny CFCs after a minimum of 5 weeks in cultures containing marrow fibroblasts. In this report, we present the findings on 21 patients who were transplanted over a 7-year period at our institution with PBCs alone. PBCs were collected in steady-state (n = 6) or during the recovery phase after high-dose cyclophosphamide (Cy; n = 15, nine with and six without additional growth factor administration). PBCs collected from another 11 patients given granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) were transplanted together with autologous marrow. Time-course studies of nine patients after Cy +/- granulocyte-macrophage CSF (GM-CSF) showed that CD34+ cells, CFCs, and LTC-ICs fell from normal to undetectable levels after Cy, and increased at the time of white blood cell (WBC) recovery: LTC-ICs to a mean of sixfold and CFCs to a mean of 26-fold higher than normal. The mean number of CD34+ cells, CFCs, and LTC-ICs present in the PBC harvest was twofold to 10-fold higher after mobilization than in steady-state collections; however, more than 2-log interpatient variability was observed. After PBC transplantation, the median time to a WBC count more than 10(9)/L was 12 days; polymorphonuclear leukocyte (PMN) count more than 0.5 x 10(9)/L, 15 days; and platelet count more than 20 x 10(9)/L, 17 days, although patients who received fewer than 1.5 x 10(5) CFCs/kg had a more than 50% chance of delayed count recovery (> 28 days). Patients who received Cy + GM-CSF-stimulated PBCs had more rapid and consistent platelet recoveries as compared with other groups receiving Cy mobilized or steady-state PBCs alone, and a rapid WBC recovery after Cy predicted a rapid WBC recovery after transplantation.


1999 ◽  
Vol 90 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene H. Cox ◽  
Mariska W. E. Langemeijer ◽  
Josy M. Gubbens-Stibbe ◽  
Keith T. Muir ◽  
Meindert Danhof

Background The purpose of this study was to investigate the in vivo pharmacodynamics and the pharmacodynamic interactions of remifentanil and its major metabolite, GR90291, in a rat electroencephalographic model. Methods Remifentanil and GR90291 were administered according to a stepwise infusion scheme. The time course of the electroencephalographic effect (0.5-4.5 Hz) was determined in conjunction with concentrations of the parent drug and the metabolite in blood. Results Administration of remifentanil resulted in concentrations of remifentanil and GR90291 in the ranges 0-120 ng/ml and 0-850 ng/ml, respectively. When the metabolite was administered, concentrations of the metabolite in the range 0-220 microg/ml and no measurable concentrations of remifentanil were observed. The mean +/- SE values of the pharmacokinetic parameters clearance and volume of distribution at steady state were 920+/-110 ml x min(-1) x kg(-1) and 1.00+/-0.93 l/kg for remifentanil and 15+/-2 ml x min(-1) x kg(-1) and 0.56+/-0.08 l/kg for GR90291. The relative free concentrations in the brain, as determined on the basis of the cerebrospinal fluid/total blood concentration ratio at steady state, were 25+/-5% and 0.30+/-0.11% for remifentanil and GR90291, respectively. Concentration-electroencephalographic effect relations were characterized on the basis of the sigmoidal Emax pharmacodynamic model. The mean +/- SE values for the maximal effect (Emax), the concentration at which 50% of the maximal effect is obtained (EC50), and Hill factor for remifentanil were 109+/-12 microV, 9.4+/-0.9 ng/ml, and 2.2+/-0.3, respectively (n = 8). For GR90291, the mean +/- SE values for EC50 and the Hill factor were 103,000+/-9,000 microg/ml and 2.5+/-0.4, respectively (n = 6). Conclusions Analysis of the data on the basis of a previously postulated, mechanism-based pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model for synthetic opioids revealed that the low in vivo potency of GR90291 can be explained by a low affinity to the mu-opioid receptor in combination with a poor brain penetration.


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