Oil Price and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation: Is there Dutch Disease in Nigeria?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Mohammed Adamu
2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-64
Author(s):  
Kornelia Gierczyńska

In general thinking, countries possessing rich natural resource deposits are blessed, as resource abundance has seemingly positive correlation with the wealth and economic development of a nation. However, experience shows that countries endowed with extreme amounts of natural resources have found themselves in a serious misuse and on a damaging growth path. Extraordinary resource possession is rather an opportunity than a guarantee for better economic performance. The term “Dutch disease” refers to a situation in which new discoveries of natural resources or sharp rises in commodity prices lead to an increase in the equilibrium real exchange rate, thus undermining the competitiveness of the other tradable sectors in the economy. As suggested in the academic literature the Dutch disease is associated ith four main symptoms: a slowdown in manufacturing output, a booming non-tradable sector, an increase in real wages and real exchange rate appreciation. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. Russia’s oil price dependence and the risk of the Dutch disease are often considered as the main long-term challenges to sustainable growth in the country. In this regard, it is worth studying the available economic data for evidence of these phenomena. The main section examines whether in Russia: exports have become more biased towards oil and gas, GDP growth has become more sensitive to oil price fluctuations, the economy is showing symptoms of the Dutch disease.


Author(s):  
Jonathon W. Moses ◽  
Bjørn Letnes

One of the biggest challenges from petroleum wealth comes from a subsequent loss of international competitiveness. Resource wealth can easily inflate the local economy, making it more difficult for other economic sectors to maintain international competitiveness. This chapter introduces the challenge of Dutch Disease and its diverse remedies. The latter part of the chapter describes how Norway has always struggled with the need to maintain international competitiveness, and has developed a highly organized economy (corporatism) as a result. Norwegian incomes policy, responsible budgeting policies, devaluations, and a restricted pace of extraction have all been used, at various times, to limit the threat of a real exchange rate appreciation.


2020 ◽  
Vol 130 (630) ◽  
pp. 1715-1728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torfinn Harding ◽  
Radoslaw Stefanski ◽  
Gerhard Toews

Abstract We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. A giant discovery with the value of 10% of a country’s GDP appreciates the real exchange rate by 1.5% within ten years following the discovery. The appreciation starts before production begins and the non-traded component of the real exchange rate drives the appreciation. Labour reallocates from the traded goods sector to the non-traded goods sector, leading to changes in labour productivity. These findings provide direct evidence on the channels central to the theories of the Dutch disease and the Balassa–Samuelson effect.


2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 356-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duncan Hodge

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between changes in OECD output, commodity prices, the real exchange rate, real money supply, unit labour costs and manufacturing in South Africa. In particular, to test a version of the Dutch disease argument that increases in the prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports have had a negative effect on domestic manufacturing against the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between such changes in commodity prices and domestic manufacturing output. Design/methodology/approach – Construction of a model including real manufacturing output in South Africa as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: OECD output, an international real metals price index, a real effective exchange rate index, real M3 money supply and manufacturing unit labour costs. The time series sample data comprise 124 quarterly observations for the period 1980-2010. The model equation was tested and estimated using a Johansen cointegration approach. Findings – The main findings are: OECD output is the single most important determinant of domestic manufacturing output; while the real exchange rate has the predicted negative sign, rising commodity prices are associated with increases rather than decreases in domestic manufacturing and; large increases in unit labour costs since the early 1980s have dragged down manufacturing over the sample period. Originality/value – The finding of a positive relationship between commodity prices and domestic manufacturing means that the Dutch disease argument must be revised when applied to South Africa. While rising commodity prices may lead to a negative exchange rate effect on manufacturing competitiveness, this is more than offset by the positive growth effects associated with upswings in the commodity price cycle.


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