P-range DCC: A Score-Driven Extension to Time-Varying Correlation Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Prange
Keyword(s):  
Time Varying ◽  
Correlation Models

scholarly journals The relationship between Google search interest for pulmonary symptoms and COVID-19 cases using dynamic conditional correlation analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Halit Cinarka ◽  
Mehmet Atilla Uysal ◽  
Atilla Cifter ◽  
Elif Yelda Niksarlioglu ◽  
Aslı Çarkoğlu
Keyword(s):  
Case Reports ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Specific Symptom ◽  
Sliding Windows ◽  
Dynamic Conditional Correlation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Correlation Models ◽  
Google Search

AbstractThis study aims to evaluate the monitoring and predictive value of web-based symptoms (fever, cough, dyspnea) searches for COVID-19 spread. Daily search interests from Turkey, Italy, Spain, France, and the United Kingdom were obtained from Google Trends (GT) between January 1, 2020, and August 31, 2020. In addition to conventional correlational models, we studied the time-varying correlation between GT search and new case reports; we used dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and sliding windows correlation models. We found time-varying correlations between pulmonary symptoms on GT and new cases to be significant. The DCC model proved more powerful than the sliding windows correlation model. This model also provided better at time-varying correlations (r ≥ 0.90) during the first wave of the pandemic. We used a root means square error (RMSE) approach to attain symptom-specific shift days and showed that pulmonary symptom searches on GT should be shifted separately. Web-based search interest for pulmonary symptoms of COVID-19 is a reliable predictor of later reported cases for the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Illness-specific symptom search interest on GT can be used to alert the healthcare system to prepare and allocate resources needed ahead of time.

scholarly journals Do the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans Have a Different Effect over Time? A Conditional Correlation Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Mariagrazia Fallanca ◽  
Antonio Fabio Forgione ◽  
Edoardo Otranto
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Correlation Models ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Several studies have explored the linkage between non-performing loans and major macroeconomic indicators, using a wide variety of methodologies, sometimes with different results. This occurs, we argue, because these relationships are generally derived in terms of correlation coefficients evaluated in certain time spans, which represent a sort of average level of correlations. However, such correlations are necessarily time-varying, because the relationships between bank loan indicators and macroeconomic variables could be stronger during particular periods or in correspondence with important economic events. We propose an empirical exercise using dynamic conditional correlation models, with constant and time-varying parameters. Applying these models to quarterly delinquency rates and an array of macroeconomic variables for the US, for the period 1985–2019, we find that the correlation is often negligible in this period except during periods of economic crises, in particular the early 1990 crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis.

scholarly journals A Time-Varying Gerber Statistic: Application of a Novel Correlation Metric to Commodity Price Co-Movements

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-354
Author(s):  
Bernardina Algieri ◽  
Arturo Leccadito ◽  
Pietro Toscano
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Conditional Correlation ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Correlation Models ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Energy Products

This study investigates the daily co-movements in commodity prices over the period 2006–2020 using a novel approach based on a time-varying Gerber correlation. The statistic is computed considering a set of probabilities estimated via non-traditional models that give a time-varying structure to the measure. The results indicate that there are several co-movements across commodities, that these co-movements change over time, and that they are tendentially positive. Conditional auto-regressive multithreshold logit models show higher forecasting accuracy for agricultural returns, while dynamic conditional correlation models are more accurate for energy products and metals. The proposed models are shown to be superior in terms of forecasting power to the benchmark method which is based on estimating the Gerber correlation moving a rolling window.

Comparison of Nonlinear Spatial Correlation Models by the Influence of the Data Augmentation to the Classification Risk

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42
Author(s):  
J. Šaltytė ◽  
K. Dučinskas
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Correlation ◽  
Random Fields ◽  
Data Augmentation ◽  
Gaussian Random Fields ◽  
Classification Rule ◽  
Numerical Comparison ◽  
First Order ◽  
Bayesian Risk ◽  
Correlation Models

The Bayesian classification rule used for the classification of the observations of the (second-order) stationary Gaussian random fields with different means and common factorised covariance matrices is investigated. The influence of the observed data augmentation to the Bayesian risk is examined for three different nonlinear widely applicable spatial correlation models. The explicit expression of the Bayesian risk for the classification of augmented data is derived. Numerical comparison of these models by the variability of Bayesian risk in case of the first-order neighbourhood scheme is performed.

Time-varying Macroeconomic Risk of Real Estate Returns

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Schindler ◽  
Bertram Steininger ◽  
Tim Kroencke
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Macroeconomic Risk ◽  
Real Estate Returns
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