Role of Secondary Attack Rate in The Surge of COVID 19 Cases: A Comparative Retrospective Cohort Study between First Wave and Second Wave of COVID 19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayendrakumar Patel ◽  
Shalin Parikh ◽  
Rakesh Patel ◽  
Shwetaben Patel ◽  
Ronak Patel ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Vol 001 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayendrakumar Patel ◽  
Shalin Parikh ◽  
Rakesh Patel ◽  
Shwetaben Patel ◽  
Ronak Patel ◽  
...  

India had the worst conditions during the second wave, and yet, the cause of the enormous spike in COVID-19 cases in a short time span remains unexplained. We aimed to decipher the cause of the enormous spike in COVID-19 cases in the second wave in India. A comparative retrospective cohort study was conducted between the first wave and the second wave. An individual primary case was interviewed using the "COVID-19 transmission questionaries sheet" to trace the total number of primary cases and age-wise unrestricted social interaction and secondary cases. Between January-2021 and May-2021, 1587 unrestricted social interactions were traced with 437 primary cases for the second wave. While for the first wave, 436 unrestricted social interactions were traced with 112 primary cases between January-2020 and December-2020. In the second wave, 36.8% of primary cases developed 334 secondary cases, while 25.0% of primary cases developed 82 secondary cases in the first wave. The secondary attack rate rose 2.5-fold in the age group >50years, and rose ~86% in the age group <10years, while it remained stable in the age group 10-50years. The overall 58% increment in secondary attack rate in the second wave indicates changes in the pattern of unrestricted social interaction amongst household members. This was further supported by the incidence proportion rate that surprisingly rose to ~39% in households of two- and three members in the second wave, while it was negligible in the first wave. Changes in the pattern of unrestricted social interaction among household members and a high affinity of the delta variant virus for infecting people in the age groups of <10 years and >50 years escalated the secondary attack rate and incidence proportion rate that led to the unprecedented surge of COVID-19 cases in the second wave.


BMJ ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 348 (feb26 2) ◽  
pp. g1247-g1247 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. D. Saini ◽  
S. Vijan ◽  
P. Schoenfeld ◽  
A. A. Powell ◽  
S. Moser ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam Dehghani ◽  
Zahra Davoodi ◽  
Farahnaz Bidari ◽  
Amin Momeni Moghaddam ◽  
Davood Khalili ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Regarding the inconclusive results of previous investigations, this study aimed to determine the association between pathology, as a possible predictor, with remission outcomes, to know the role of pathology in the personalized decision making in acromegaly patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was performed on the consecutive surgeries for growth hormone (GH) producing pituitary adenomas from February 2015 to January 2021. Seventy-one patients were assessed for granulation patterns and prolactin co-expression as dual staining adenomas. The role of pathology and some other predictors on surgical remission was evaluated using logistic regression models. Results Among 71 included patients, 34 (47.9%) patients had densely granulated (DG), 14 (19.7%) had sparsely granulated (SG), 23 (32.4%) had dual staining pituitary adenomas. The remission rate was about 62.5% in the patients with SG and DG adenomas named single staining and 52.2% in dual staining groups. Postoperative remission was 1.53-folds higher in the single staining adenomas than dual staining-one (non-significant). The remission rate was doubled in DG group compared to two other groups (non-significant). By adjusting different predictors, cavernous sinus invasion and one-day postoperative GH levels decreased remission rate by 91% (95% CI: 0.01–0.67; p = 0.015) and 64% (95% CI: 0.19–0.69; p < 0.001), respectively. Responses to the medications were not significantly different among three groups. Conclusion Various pathological subtypes of pituitary adenomas do not appear to have a predictive role in estimating remission outcomes. Cavernous sinus invasion followed by one-day postoperative GH is the strongest parameter to predict biochemical remission.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hailay Gesesew ◽  
Birtukan Tsehaineh ◽  
Desalegn Massa ◽  
Amanuel Tesfay ◽  
Hafte Kahsay ◽  
...  

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