We use more than a century of Argentine and Mexican data to estimate the structural parameters of a small-open-economy real-business-cycle model driven by nonstationary productivity shocks. We find that the RBC model does a poor job of explaining business cycles in emerging countries. We then estimate an augmented model that incorporates shocks to the country premium and financial frictions. We find that the estimated financial-friction model provides a remarkably good account of business cycles in emerging markets and, importantly, assigns a negligible role to nonstationary productivity shocks. (JEL E13, E32, E44, F43, O11, O16)
The assumption of the Group of 20 (G20) rotating presidency in December 2017 has created a meaningful window of opportunity for Argentina in order to wield its influence on the international agenda and build its reputation within the global arena. In addition, the Argentinean G20 presidency has become a significant chance to project a Southern and/or developing perspective within this global forum established to debate and address the most pressing economic and political international challenges. This article aims to analyse the agenda and challenges of the Argentinean G20 presidency. In so doing, it attempts to shed light on the following questions: What mechanisms or means will the Argentine Republic deploy in order to exert its influence on the group? Will Argentina represent the voice of Latin American and emerging countries or will it have an acquiescent behaviour towards the central powers? Will the Argentinean presidency be able to ease the group’s internal tensions? Finally, might the Argentinean presidency overcome the critics regarding the G20’s legitimacy?
Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?