МНОГОРЕГИОНАЛЬНЫЙ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКОЙ ПРОГНОЗ ДЛЯ РОССИИ: ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19. (Multi-Regional Demographic Forecast for Russia: Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Shulgin ◽  
Sergey Scherbov
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Forecast

HOUSING PER CAPITA IN THE REPUBLIC OF TUVA IN LIGHT OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Херел Маныевна Наксыл
Keyword(s):  
Housing Construction ◽  
Housing Project ◽  
Housing Shortage ◽  
Individual Housing ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Existing Structure ◽  
Demographic Forecast

В статье рассматривается обеспеченность жильем на душу населения в Республике Тыва в привязке к демографическому прогнозу населения региона. Анализ показывает, что целевые показатели по вводу жилья регионального проекта «Жилье», а также существующая структура жилищного строительства с преобладающей долей индивидуального жилищного строительства не позволяют решить проблему дефицита жилья. The article examines the provision of housing per capita in the Republic of Tuva in relation to the demographic forecast of the population of the region. The analysis shows that the targets of the regional housing project, as well as the existing structure of housing construction with the predominant share of individual housing construction do not solve the problem of the housing shortage.

scholarly journals Modelling the employed in the Russian economy given the impact of pension reform and the coronavirus pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 ◽  
pp. 01033
Author(s):  
Eugene Pitukhin ◽  
Marina Astafyeva ◽  
Maxim Kukolev
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Vocational Education ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Education System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Process Dynamics ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Demographic Forecast

The article is devoted to forecasting changes in the number of people employed in the economy of the Russian Federation, which should occur as a result of the effects of the pension reform in 2018 and also the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The demographic forecast of the population of the Russian Federation until 2030 is used as the dominant forecasting factor. The influencing factors on the process dynamics are the employment levels. The forecast of employment levels is based on the factors of the pension reform in 2018 and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. The following trends are also being demonstrated: an increase in employment due to ”former” pensioners remaining in work, and a decline in employment due to an increase in the number of unemployed because of coronavirus pandemic. For the duration of the pension reform, the economy’s annual need for human resources will decrease. This will cause difficulties in finding a job for the majority of applicants – graduates of the vocational education system. The situation will be further aggravated by rising unemployment due to the reduction of jobs in the economy caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Population ageing and income redistribution

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (10) ◽  
pp. 53-62
Author(s):  
Andrzej Ochocki
Keyword(s):  
Common Good ◽  
National Income ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Transfer Model ◽  
Retirement Benefits ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Demographic Forecast

The aim of the paper is to identify the macroeconomic conditions which determined the dynamics of remuneration and pension growth in Poland in 2010–2017, along with presenting the study forecast until 2025. The research was based on the data from the na-tional accounts, population statistics, statistics of retirement benefits and Statistics Poland’s demographic forecast for 2008–2035. The ageing of a population aggravates the problem of fair distribution of the current stream of goods and services produced in the economic process. Distribution options are determined by the relations between the ratio of employed persons to pensioners and the volume of national income. The resulting dependencies can be described using the author’s original Intergenerational Income Transfer Model (IITM).The observation of tendencies in Poland demonstrated that the pace of GDP growth between 2010–2017 ensured the macroeconomic balance essential in the process of shaping remunerations and pensions –GDP was growing faster than remunerations and pensions. This indicates the necessity of maintaining a high rate of GDP growth and productivity, at around 3.6% a year, which means that GDP will need to have grown by over 40% by 2025 compared to 2015.With the help of the IITM, it was also possible to identify the main difficulty facing the system of public intergenerational transfers, which, in a state perceived as a common good, should be understood as pensioners’ liabilities whose repayment guaranteesa decent standard of living for the elderly.

scholarly journals SOME PARAMETERS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORECAST FOR THE REGIONS OF THE SC FO AND METHODS OF THEIR CALCULATION

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Н.Г. Каберты
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
The North ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Demographic Forecast

В статье рассматриваются основные параметры демографического про- гноза населения регионов Северного Кавказа до 2036 года. Анализируются ожидаемые параметры численности населения, ее структуры и демографических процессов. Оха- рактеризованы экономико-математические методы прогнозирования. The article examines the main parameters of the demographic forecast of the population of the regions of the North Caucasus until 2036. The expected parameters of the population size, its structure and demographic processes are analyzed. Economic and mathematical forecasting methods are characterized.

scholarly journals STATISTICAL METHODS FOR FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS IN UKRAINE: APPLICATION CONTEXT

2021 ◽  
pp. 183-204
Author(s):  
Mykhailo LUCHKO ◽  
Mariia SHESTERNIAK
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Specific Area ◽  
Statistical Modelling ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Modelling Methods ◽  
Future Population ◽  
Demographic Forecast

The article examines the demographic processes and indicators of Ukraine over the years of its independence. The essence of the concepts «forecast», «forecasting» and «demographic forecast» is considered. It is demonstrated that the results of the demographic forecast and the subsequent strategic analysis constitute essential information for substantiating the prediction of the main parameters of population indicators, future demographic situation and socioeconomic processes in a given area. The conditions for application of demographic forecasting methods are defined. The statistical methods that are most often used in practice to forecast the future population are grouped into methods of extrapolation, methods of shifting ages, methods of statistical modelling (methods of mathematical modelling), methods of expert evaluations. It is determined that in practice each group of statistical methods of demographic forecasting has its purpose, characterizes a specific demographic phenomenon and is applied to a specific area. Recommendations on using the optimal methods for forecasting and predictive calculations of future demographic indicators of Ukraine are suggested in order to ensure the analytical and predictive component of management.

scholarly journals RESEARCH OF THE ATTITUDE OF THE HOST POPULATION TO MIGRANTS IN 2015 AND 2020 (ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE CITY OF CHELYABINSK)

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3(84)) ◽  
pp. 9-13
Author(s):  
K. Goncharenko
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
High Mortality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Population ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
The City ◽  
Demographic Forecast

According to the demographic forecast of the development of Russia until 2035, the population of Russia will continue to decline, the trend of low fertility and high mortality will continue, the rate of the Russian leadership on attracting migrants, which will not only save, but also increase the population of Russia [1]. But with an increase in the flow of migrants from the CIS, interethnic and interfaith conflicts are aggravated, growing into serious conflicts like France, Germany, and the United States. In order to reduce tensions and prevent acute conflicts between the host population and migrants, it is necessary to build two-way work to reduce tensions. One of the forms of identifying tensions is to interview the host population. The purpose of this survey is to identify the characteristics of the attitude of the host population towards migrants from the CIS countries in dynamics, using the example of the city of Chelyabinsk.

scholarly journals URBANIZATION EFFECTS ON LAND USE CHANGES WITHIN THE URBAN AGGLOMERATION CHISINAU

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodica Sirbu ◽  
Vadim Cujba
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatial Planning ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Territorial Expansion ◽  
Demographic Pressure ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Land Relations ◽  
Demographic Forecast

This article evaluates the effects of urbanization on the land use within the Chisinau agglomeration. The research carried out regarding situation in Stăuceni commune, confirms that the peri-urban area, undergoes a period of significant spatial and functional transformation, influenced by the demographic pressure, poorly controlled urban development and the intensification of the land relations. By implementing the project “Chisinau Arena” on the territory of Stăuceni commune, the plan for territorial expansion of Chisinau city (in peri-urban areas located on major transport axes) is reconfirmed. At the same time, the demographic forecast presented in scenario III, according to UN for population, shows that the Chisinau population will decrease dramatically, towards 2035, therefore it is necessary that the spatial planning plans to be adapted quickly to the pace of demographic changes, to avoid compromising the infrastructure projects and squandering land in the suburban areas.

The Demographic Forecast is In: Obstacles and Opportunities

1999 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 6-7
Author(s):  
Flora MacDonald ◽  
Matthew D. Pavelich
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Forecast
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