Testing for Uip: Nonlinearities, Monetary Announcements and Interest Rate Expectations

The Impact of monetary Policy on Ouput is an ambiguous. The results of previous empirical studies indicate that the impact can be a positive or negative relationship. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of monetary policy on Output more detail. The variables to estimatate monetery poicy are used state and board interest rate andrate. This research is conducted by Ordinary Least Square or Instrumental Variabel, method for 5 countries ASEAN. The state data are estimated for the period of 1980 – 2014. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the impact of monetary policy on Output shown are varied.Keyword: Monetary Policy, Output, Panel Data, Fixed Effects Model

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Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2020-4-31-53 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 31-53 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Anna A. Pestova ◽

Natalia A. Rostova

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Exchange Rate Regime ◽

Aggregate Demand ◽

Economic Effects ◽

Theoretical Concepts ◽

Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

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Analysis of the Bank of Russia information policy

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2017-10-88-110 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 88-110 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

S. Drobyshevsky ◽

P. Trunin ◽

A. Bozhechkova ◽

E. Gorunov ◽

D. Petrova

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Nonparametric Tests ◽

Information Policy ◽

Var Models ◽

New Approach ◽

Interest Rate Policy ◽

News Reports ◽

Internet Users ◽

Rate Policy ◽

Exchange Markets

The article investigates the Bank of Russia information policy using a new approach to measuring information effects on Russian data, including the analysis of the tonality of news reports, as well as internet users’ queries on Google. The efficiency of regulator’s information signals is studied using EGARCH-, VAR- models, as well as nonparametric tests. The authors conclude that the regulator communicates effectively in terms of the predictability of interest rate policy, the degree to which information signals affect the money and foreign exchange markets.

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The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

Journal of Economics and Development ◽

10.33301/2015.17.01.02 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 20-40

Author(s):

Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Monetary Transmission ◽

Impulse Response Functions ◽

Short Run ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

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