Culture, Economic Shocks and Conflict: Does trust moderate the effect of price shocks on conflict?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gautam Bose ◽  
Mitchell Choi ◽  
Hasin Yousaf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks

scholarly journals Desperate House Sellers: Distress Among Developers

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (065) ◽  
pp. 1-68
Author(s):  
Eileen van Straelen ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
House Price ◽  
Internal Capital Markets ◽  
Housing Crisis ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Housing Developments ◽  
Internal Capital

Using granular data on home builder housing developments from the 2006-09 housing crisis, I show that builders spread house price shocks across geographically distinct projects via their internal capital markets. Builders who experience losses in one area subsequently sell homes in unaffected areas at a discount to raise cash quickly. Financially constrained firms are more likely to cut prices of homes in healthy areas in response to losses in unhealthy ones. Firms also smooth shocks across projects only during the crisis and not during the boom. These results together suggest firm internal capital markets spread negative economic shocks across space.

scholarly journals Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Bazzi ◽  
Christopher Blattman
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Time Dependence ◽  
Export Price ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
State Capture ◽  
State Revenues

Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counter-insurgency capacity and reduce individual incentives to fight in existing conflicts. Conflict onset and continuation follow different processes. Ignoring this time dependence generates mistaken conclusions about income and instability. (JEL D72, D74, O13, O17, O19, Q02, Q34)

Shock persistence in Canada's forest products markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 87 (04) ◽  
pp. 504-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt Niquidet ◽  
Lili Sun
Keyword(s):  
Forest Products ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Major Contributor ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Autoregressive Time Series ◽  
Traditional Markets ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Forest Products Markets

The forest products sector continues to be a major contributor to many regional economies within Canada. Traditional markets for these products have been subjected to several unexpected shifts. How long are the impacts of these economic shocks likely to persist? In this paper, price persistence was calculated by two measures for Canada's major forest products. The first measure uses an autoregressive time series model to estimate the average half-life of shocks, whereas the second measure is based on a non-parametric variance ratio statistic, which isolates the fraction of shocks that are expected to have lasting effects. The results reveal that for most forest products, price shocks are largely transitory in nature, eventually dying out, but the process often takes several years and can have some permanent impacts.

scholarly journals The macroeconomics of "Oil Prices" and "Economic Shocks": Lessons from the 1970s

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 79-90
Author(s):  
Deepanshu Mohan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Per Se ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

This paper examines the relationship between oil price shocks and recessions and focuses particularly on the period of stagflation in the 1970s. Nearly every recession in the U.S. since WWII has been preceded by an oil price shock, and examining the literature as to the causal mechanisms finds there are a range of opinions from supply and demand side factors to the precipitated monetary policy response. Evaluating these across a number of countries finds that the mechanisms at play are complex and disputed. This paper reviews the literature and evaluates the various theories put forward before concluding that whilst oil plays a key role in the economy, the recessions following oil price shocks are more likely to be as a result of monetary policy decisions than the oil price shocks per se.

Monetary policy and the effect of the transfer of oil prices to inflation

2020 ◽  
pp. 41-50
Author(s):  
Ph. S. Kartaev ◽  
I. D. Medvedev
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Impact

The paper examines the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, as well as the impact of the choice of the monetary policy regime on the strength of this influence. We used dynamic models on panel data for the countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2017. It is shown that mainly the impact of changes in oil prices on inflation is carried out through the channel of exchange rate. The paper demonstrates the influence of the transition to inflation targeting on the nature of the relationship between oil price shocks and inflation. This effect is asymmetrical: during periods of rising oil prices, inflation targeting reduces the effect of the transfer of oil prices, limiting negative effects of shock. During periods of decline in oil prices, this monetary policy regime, in contrast, contributes to a stronger transfer, helping to reduce inflation.

The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks

CFA Digest ◽  
2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-39
Author(s):  
M.E. Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effects ◽  
Energy Price ◽  
Price Shocks

Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of Macroeconomic Variability

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1073-1087
Author(s):  
Rizwan Thair
Keyword(s):  
Research Agenda ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Early 20Th Century ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Structural Shifts ◽  
Quantitative Importance

Providing a reasonable explanation for the business cycle has been the research agenda for many economists since the early 20th century, from Mitchell (1913), Pigou (1927) and Adelman and Adelman (1959) to Lucas (1972), Black (1982) and King and Plosser (1984). For a review, see Zarnowitz (1985). Most attempts to explain the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations' attribute the variability in output and prices to only a few sources, sometimes to\mJ.y one. Kydland and Prescott (1982) and others proposed technology shocks as the main source of aggregate variability; Barro (1977) pointed to unanticipated changes in money stock; Lilien (1982) argued for 'unusual structural shifts' such as changes in the demand for goods relative to services, and Hamilton (1983) concluded in favour of oil price shocks.

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