Public Information Releases, Private Information Arrival, and Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramon P. DeGennaro ◽  
Ronald E. Shrieves
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Exchange Market

scholarly journals Central bank's communication and markets' reactions: Polish evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janusz Brzeszczyński ◽  
Jerzy Gajdka ◽  
Tomasz Schabek ◽  
Ali M Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study contributes to the pool of knowledge about the impact of monetary policy communication of central banks on financial instruments' prices and assets' value in emerging markets.Design/methodology/approachEmpirical analysis is executed using the National Bank of Poland (NBP) announcements about its monetary policy covering the data from the broad financial market in its three main segments: stock market, foreign exchange market and bonds market. The reactions are measured relative to the changes in the NBP announcements and also with respect to investors' expectations. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models with dummy variables are used as the main methodological tool.FindingsBonds market and foreign exchange market are the most sensitive market segments, while interest rate and money supply are the most influential types of announcements. The changes of the revealed new macroeconomic figures had more impact on assets' prices movements than the deviations from their expectations. Moreover, greater diversity of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members' opinions on the voted motions, captured in the MPC voting reports, is associated with more cases of statistically significant NBP communication events.Practical implicationsThe findings have direct relevance for fund managers, portfolio analysts, investors and also for financial market regulators.Originality/valueThe results provide novel evidence about how the emerging financial market responds to monetary policy announcements. They help understand the nature of the impact of public information on financial assets' valuation and on movements of their prices, analysed comprehensively in three market segments, in the emerging market environment.

Price leadership in the South African foreign-exchange market: an empirical analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-117
Author(s):  
Philani Shandu ◽  
Gideon Boako ◽  
Paul Alagidede
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Price Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
News Event

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the information-based microstructure theory’s effectiveness in explaining short-term disturbances in currency prices by determining whether the price discovery process in the US dollar (USD) and South African rand (ZAR)-USD/ZAR spot market is led by an individual market agent, around an exogenous news event. Design/methodology/approach The influence of central bank intervention-related events on USD/ZAR volatility is investigated through the application of Brown-Forsythe variance equality tests on individual dealer and market quotes. Furthermore, the study applies bivariate Granger-causality tests to individual dealers’ USD/ZAR spot rate quotes, in an effort to determine whether certain dealers can be established as price leaders around an exogenous news event. Findings The study finds significant evidence to suggest the USD/ZAR market price leadership of Nomura forex (FX) prior to the public announcement of a South African Reserve Bank intervention-related news event. This finding supports microstructure theory’s assertions regarding the existence of foreign-exchange market characteristics such as trader heterogeneity and private information. Research limitations/implications The paper is conducted on a sample of eight USD/ZAR market agents, of which six are offshore dealers, and only two are located locally. Although these proportions are somewhat relatable to the locations of rand turnover, it would still be interesting to investigate the existence of price leadership solely amongst South African authorised FX dealers. Practical implications The results suggest the existence and price relevance of private information, as well as the heterogeneous nature of USD/ZAR market participants, based on informational asymmetries. The outcomes of the paper are useful to market participants, researchers, and central banks alike. Originality/value Though the study does not impugn the body of work related to the orthodox macroeconomic approaches to exchange rate determination, it seems apparent that much more microstructure-related research still has to be conducted in the context of emerging market currencies. It is this void that the current study has attempted to provide for in contribution to literature.

INDIVIDUAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE INVESTORS, RETURN PREDICTABILITY AND MARKET TIMING

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (01) ◽  
pp. 1750001 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOUSTAFA ABUELFADL
Keyword(s):  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Linear Independence ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Exchange Market

This study tests whether individual foreign exchange (Forex) investors can predict future returns, time the market and generate alpha after transaction costs. Using a sample of 1,231 Forex trading accounts and 72,072 trades, the results show that individual Forex investors can predict future returns up to eight days after trade execution, even after controlling for Volatility. The results of return predictability are significant because they support the idea that linear independence is rejected as well as provide empirical evidence that private information is available in the foreign exchange market.

A Study On Technical Analysis With Reference To International Forex

Think India ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1129-1144
Author(s):  
Bichith C. Sekhar ◽  
A. Umamaheswari
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Abnormal Return ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Relative Strength ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Strength Index ◽  
Technical Tool ◽  
Alpha Beta ◽  
Decentralized Market ◽  
Currency Conversion

The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized market for the trading of currencies. The foreign exchange market assists international trade and investments by enabling currency conversion. Our study is to test the technical tools to analyze about the technical impact and its return in the market.  For this purpose 13 cross currency pairs were taken as sample size and Jensen’s Alpha, Beta, Relative Strength Index, and Buy and Hold Abnormal Return were used as technical tool for analysis and the conclusion is that it’s not preferred to invest in JPY pairs as the volatility and the return are not up to the mark and its preferred to invest in EURCAD as the return was high when compared to other scripts and the market was moving accordingly to its cross currency pair.

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