Is Broader Better? A Monetary Approach to Forecasting Economic Activity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ellington ◽  
Marcin Michalski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Monetary Approach

scholarly journals UNDERGROUND ECONOMY IN INDONESIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Juli Asdiyanti Samuda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Underground Economy ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Monetary Approach ◽  
Market Production ◽  
Average Size ◽  
Tax Loss

This paper estimates the size of underground economic activity in Indonesia. Underground economy covers market production of goods and services, legal and illegal, which are sold or purchased illegally. Using monetary approach, this paper concludes the average size of the underground economy in Indonesia during 2001-2013 was 8.33 percent of GDP. Consequently, the average size of potential tax loss was Rp. 11,172.86 billion or about one percent of GDP.

Economic Activity

1967 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. Harcourt ◽  
P. H. Karmel ◽  
R. H. Wallace
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity

Institutional Specifics of Business Self-regulation

2003 ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Obydenov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Institutional Arrangement ◽  
Voluntary Membership ◽  
Sufficient Set ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Object Of Control ◽  
Self Enforcement

Self-regulation appears to be a special institution where economic actors establish their own rules of economic activity for themselves in a specific business field. At the same time they are the object of control within these rules and the subject of legal management of the controller. Self-regulation contains necessary prerequisites for fundamental resolution of the problem of "controlling the controller". The necessary and sufficient set of five self-regulation organization functions provides efficiency of self-regulation as the institutional arrangement. The voluntary membership in a self-regulation organization is essential for ensuring self-enforcement of institutional arrangement of self-regulation.

Economic effects of monetary policy in Russia: What do large datasets tell us?

2020 ◽  
pp. 31-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna A. Pestova ◽  
Natalia A. Rostova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Theoretical Concepts ◽  
Empirical Estimates

Is the Bank of Russia able to control inflation and, at the same time, manage aggregate demand using its interest rate instruments? In other words, are empirical estimates of the effects of monetary policy in Russia consistent with the theoretical concepts and experience of advanced economies? This paper is aimed at addressing these issues. Unlike previous research, we employ “big data” — a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial data — to estimate the effects of monetary policy in Russia. We focus exclusively on the period after the 2008—2009 global financial crisis when the Bank of Russia announced the abandoning of its fixed ruble exchange rate regime and started to gradually transit to an interest rate management. Our estimation results do not confirm standard responses of key economic activity and price variables to tightening of monetary policy. Specifically, our estimates do not reveal a statistically significant restraining effect of the Bank of Russia’s policy of high interest rates on inflation in recent years. At the same time, we find a significant deteriorating effect of the monetary tightening on economic activity indicators: according to our conservative estimates, each of the key rate increases occurred in March and December 2014 had led to a decrease in the industrial production index by about 0.2 percentage points within a year.

Mechanisms of Global Governance: Economic Analysis

2013 ◽  
pp. 4-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Grigoryev ◽  
A. Kurdin
Keyword(s):  
Property Rights ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Narrow Sense ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
Global Problems

The coordination of economic activity at the global level is carried out through different mechanisms, which regulate activities of companies, states, international organizations. In spite of wide diversity of entrenched mechanisms of governance in different areas, they can be classified on the basis of key characteristics, including distribution of property rights, mechanisms of governance (in the narrow sense according to O. Williamson), mechanisms of expansion. This approach can contribute not only to classifying existing institutions but also to designing new ones. The modern aggravation of global problems may require rethinking mechanisms of global governance. The authors offer the universal framework for considering this problem and its possible solutions.

Impact of regulatory framework rigidity on poverty in the regions of Russia

2020 ◽  
pp. 62-79
Author(s):  
P. N. Pavlov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Activity ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Institutional Factors ◽  
Federal Regulations ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
Regulatory Burden ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The paper analyzes the impact of the federal regulatory burden on poverty dynamics in Russia. The paper provides regional level indices of the federal regulatory burden on the economy in 2008—2018 which take into account sectoral structure of regions’ output and the level of regulatory rigidity of federal regulations governing certain types of economic activity. Estimates of empirical specifications of poverty theoretical model with the inclusion of macroeconomic and institutional factors shows that limiting the scope of the rulemaking activity of government bodies and weakening of new regulations rigidity contributes to a statistically significant reduction in the level of poverty in Russian regions. Cancellation of 10% of accumulated federal level requirements through the “regulatory guillotine” administrative reform may take out of poverty about 1.1—1.4 million people.

World Economic Crisis as a Process of Substitution of Technological Modes

2009 ◽  
pp. 26-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Glaziev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Long Wave ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Technological Mode ◽  
World Economic Crisis

The article analyzes fundamental reasons for the world economic crisis in the light of global technological shifts. It proves that it is caused by the substitution of technological modes. It is shown that sharp increase and slump in stock indices and prices for energy resources are typical of the process of technological substitution which occurs regularly according to the rhythm of long-wave fluctuations of the world economic activity. The article rationalizes a package of anti-crisis measures aimed at stimulating the new technological mode. Its structure and role of the locomotive factor of the new long wave of economic growth are revealed.

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