Home Depot, Hogwarts & Excess Deaths at the CDC

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kurt S. Schulzke
Keyword(s):  
Home Depot ◽  
Excess Deaths

scholarly journals Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 3913
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Kristoffer Rypdal ◽  
Ola Løvsletten ◽  
Sigrunn Holbek Sørbye ◽  
Elinor Ytterstad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Regressive Model ◽  
Epidemic Period ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Expected Mortality ◽  
Auto Regressive Model ◽  
Excess Deaths

We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year, July 2019 to July 2020, was 517 (95%CI = (12, 1074)) in Norway and 4329 [3331, 5325] in Sweden. There were 255 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period of 11 March–11 November, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. We estimated that the number of YLL attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden was 45,850 [13,915, 80,276] without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43,073 (12,160, 85,451) after adjusting for the displacement accounted for by the auto-regressive model. In conclusion, we find good agreement between officially recorded COVID-19 related deaths and all-cause excess deaths in both countries during the first epidemic wave and no significant mortality displacement that can explain those deaths.

scholarly journals Construction of a demand and capacity model for intensive care and hospital ward beds, and mortality from COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Martin ◽  
Stuart McDonald ◽  
Steve Bale ◽  
Michiel Luteijn ◽  
Rahul Sarkar
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
National Level ◽  
Direct Consequence ◽  
Hospital Ward ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Capacity Model ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Demand And Capacity ◽  
Excess Deaths

Abstract Background This paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity. Methods Compartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, ‘Optimistic’, ‘Middling’ and ‘Pessimistic’, were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd February. Results The key output was the demand and capacity model described. There were no excess deaths from a lack of capacity in the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. Several of the ‘Middling’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths—up to 597 deaths (0.6% increase) with a 20% reduction compared to best estimate ICU capacity. All the ‘Pessimistic’ scenario applications resulted in excess deaths, ranging from 49,178 (17.0% increase) for a 20% increase in ward bed availability, to 103,735 (35.8% increase) for a 20% shortfall in ward bed availability. These scenarios took no account of the emergence of the new, more transmissible, variant of concern (b.1.1.7). Conclusions Mortality is increased when hospital demand exceeds available capacity. No excess deaths from breaching capacity would be expected under the ‘Optimistic’ scenario. The ‘Middling’ scenario could result in some excess deaths—up to a 0.7% increase relative to the total number of deaths. The ‘Pessimistic’ scenario would have resulted in significant excess deaths. Our sensitivity analysis indicated a range between 49,178 (17% increase) and 103,735 (35.8% increase). Given the new variant, the pessimistic scenario appeared increasingly likely and could have resulted in a substantial increase in the number of COVID-19 deaths. In the event, it would appear that capacity was not breached at any stage at a national level with no excess deaths. it will remain unclear if minor local capacity breaches resulted in any small number of excess deaths.

scholarly journals Years of life lost to COVID-19 in 81 countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor Pifarré i Arolas ◽  
Enrique Acosta ◽  
Guillem López-Casasnovas ◽  
Adeline Lo ◽  
Catia Nicodemo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Dead ◽  
Excess Deaths

AbstractUnderstanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 81 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2–9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.

The Political Economy of Famine: The Ukrainian Famine of 1933

2021 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 156-197
Author(s):  
Natalya Naumenko
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Excess Deaths

The 1933 Ukrainian famine killed as many as 2.6 million people out of a population of 32 million. Historians offer three main explanations: weather, economic policies, genocide. This paper documents that (1) available data do not support weather as the main explanation: 1931 and 1932 weather predicts harvest roughly equal to the 1924–1929 average; weather explains up to 8.1 percent of excess deaths. (2) Policies (collectivization of agriculture and the lack of favored industries) significantly increased famine mortality; collectivization explains up to 52 percent of excess deaths. (3) There is some evidence that ethnic Ukrainians and Germans were discriminated against.

scholarly journals Pandemics and Burden of Stroke and Epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Experience from a Longstanding Health Programme

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2766
Author(s):  
Massimo Leone ◽  
Fausto Ciccacci ◽  
Stefano Orlando ◽  
Sandro Petrolati ◽  
Giovanni Guidotti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neurological Disorders ◽  
Combined Treatment ◽  
Cerebrovascular Disorders ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Noncommunicable Diseases ◽  
People Living With Hiv ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Health Programme ◽  
Excess Deaths ◽  
Hiv Aids

Eighty percent of people with stroke live in low- to middle-income nations, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where stroke has increased by more than 100% in the last decades. More than one-third of all epilepsy−related deaths occur in SSA. HIV infection is a risk factor for neurological disorders, including stroke and epilepsy. The vast majority of the 38 million people living with HIV/AIDS are in SSA, and the burden of neurological disorders in SSA parallels that of HIV/AIDS. Local healthcare systems are weak. Many standalone HIV health centres have become a platform with combined treatment for both HIV and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), as advised by the United Nations. The COVID-19 pandemic is overwhelming the fragile health systems in SSA, and it is feared it will provoke an upsurge of excess deaths due to the disruption of care for chronic diseases such as HIV, TB, hypertension, diabetes, and cerebrovascular disorders. Disease Relief through Excellent and Advanced Means (DREAM) is a health programme active since 2002 to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS and related disorders in 10 SSA countries. DREAM is scaling up management of NCDs, including neurologic disorders such as stroke and epilepsy. We described challenges and solutions to address disruption and excess deaths from these diseases during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Task force pinpoints sources of excess deaths in blacks

JAMA ◽  
1986 ◽  
Vol 255 (24) ◽  
pp. 3343
Author(s):  
William A. Check
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Excess Deaths
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