scholarly journals Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian di Giovanni ◽  
Andrei A. Levchenko ◽  
Isabelle Mejean
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Shocks

scholarly journals Household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 103303
Author(s):  
Sergio de Ferra ◽  
Kurt Mitman ◽  
Federica Romei
Keyword(s):  
Household Heterogeneity ◽  
Foreign Shocks

scholarly journals Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission*

2016 ◽  
Vol 132 (2) ◽  
pp. 921-962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Cravino ◽  
Andrei A. Levchenko
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
International Business ◽  
Multinational Firms ◽  
Quantitative Model ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Data Set ◽  
International Business Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Foreign Shocks

Abstract We investigate how multinational firms contribute to the transmission of shocks across countries using a large multicountry firm-level data set that contains cross-border ownership information. We use these data to document two novel empirical patterns. First, foreign affiliate and headquarter sales exhibit strong positive comovement: a 10% growth in the sales of the headquarter is associated with a 2% growth in the sales of the affiliate. Second, shocks to the source country account for a significant fraction of the variation in sales growth at the source-destination level. We propose a parsimonious quantitative model to interpret these findings and to evaluate the role of multinational firms for international business cycle transmission. For the typical country, the impact of foreign shocks transmitted by all foreign multinationals combined is non-negligible, accounting for about 10% of aggregate productivity shocks. On the other hand, since bilateral multinational production shares are small, interdependence between most individual country pairs is minimal. Our results do reveal substantial heterogeneity in the strength of this mechanism, with the most integrated countries significantly more affected by foreign shocks.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Shocks on the Polish Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 305 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-52
Author(s):  
Anna Sznajderska
Keyword(s):  
Polish Economy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Foreign Shocks

scholarly journals How Trade Composition Affects Sensitivity to Foreign Shocks: Applying a Global VAR Model to Ukraine

2019 ◽  
pp. 4-18
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Faryna ◽  
Heli Simola
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
The Us ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Global Var ◽  
Global Vector ◽  
Foreign Shocks

This paper studies the transmission of foreign output shocks to real activity in Ukraine through international trade. We employ a global vector auto regressive (GVAR) model that captures about 80% of the world economy and incorporates time-varying trade and financial weights. According to our estimates, a mild recession in the US of a 1% drop in output generates a substantial recession in Ukraine of about 2.2%. A similar drop of output in the euro area and Russia translates to a drop in output of about 1.7% in Ukraine. Finally, the same drop of output in CEE, China, or the CIS leads to an output decline of about 0.4% in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s response to euro area output shock has been steadily increasing over the last couple of decades due to changes in global trade flows. Ukraine’s sensitivity to shocks in the US and euro area is notably strengthened by indirect trade effects, while the response to shocks from emerging economies, i.e., China, CEE, the CIS, and partially Russia, is mainly determined by bilateral trade linkages.

scholarly journals Decomposing the Effect of Domestic and Foreign Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Real and Financial Sectors: Evidence from BRIC Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 315
Author(s):  
Ameet Kumar ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Kalhoro ◽  
Rakesh Kumar ◽  
Niaz Hussain Ghumro ◽  
Sarfraz Ahmed Dakhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Foreign Economic Policy ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Foreign Shocks

This study examines the impact of domestic and foreign shocks on the real and financial sector of BRIC countries. For this purpose, we use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model over the extended period of 1997 to 2016. We conclude that domestic policy shocks have a more substantial impact on Brazilian, Indian, and Russian economy than foreign shocks, while foreign shocks have more contribution in the case of China. Interestingly, results show the negative impact of policy shocks on bank credit provided, implying its role in multiplying the impact of shocks on real variables. Surprisingly EPU of USA has a positive impact on stock markets of India and China, implying capital flight phenomenon, where investor transfer investment from risky to safer places.

scholarly journals The effects of foreign shocks when interest rates are at zero

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Bodenstein ◽  
Christopher J. Erceg ◽  
Luca Guerrieri
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Shocks

The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 632-643
Author(s):  
Goran Petrevski ◽  
Peter Exterkate ◽  
Dragan Tevdovski ◽  
Jane Bogoev
Keyword(s):  
Eastern European ◽  
Bayesian Var ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
European Economies ◽  
Foreign Shocks
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