scholarly journals Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian ◽  
Xiaoqing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, US Dollar Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and World Oil Prices on Gold Price Fluctuations in Indonesia 2014 – 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-171
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Insignificant Effect ◽  
Us Dollar

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, US dollar exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia in 2014 - 2019. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. The multiple linear regression model is used as an analysis technique in this study. The results of this study indicate that simultaneously (F test) inflation, USD exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices have a significant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Partially (t-test) shows that the USD exchange rate has a significant positive effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia. Inflation and interest rates have a negative and insignificant effect on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia. Meanwhile, world oil prices have a positive and insignificant effect on gold price fluctuations in Indonesia.

scholarly journals An analysis of the statistical relationship between precious metals prices and other monetary policy variables and inflation in South Africa

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 420-437
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Precious Metals ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Statistical Relationship ◽  
Portfolio Strategies ◽  
Statistical Relationships

This study looked at the statistical relationship between precious metals prices, oil prices, money supply, interest rates and exchange ratesandinflation. It particularly looked at how inflation was influenced by these variables over time. The findings in this study were consistent with the hypothesis that the values of these variables influence inflation in the short-term and long-term. One of the findingsthat could be of interest especially for South Africa indicates that precious metalsprice changes, especially gold,could act as signals of pending changes to inflation and are also statistically related to interest rate movements. However, it was also found that the relationship between exchange rates movements during the financial crisis era between 2008 and 2010 did affect the other variables like prime, precious metals prices and oil prices which led to significant spikes in inflation. It should be emphasized that these finding of a statistical relationship is only consistent with observed data pertaining to South Africa and not proof of such behaviour prevailing in other markets. Even then, such a conclusion would require the isolation of a number of country specific behaviours and factors that may be correlated with precious metals prices, oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates and that may simultaneously affect inflation, which this study did not factor in. However, knowledge of statistical relationships can help in informing monetary policy responses and designing appropriate portfolio strategies although these findings do not provide unambiguous proof of any underlying behavioural hypothesis.

scholarly journals Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian ◽  
Beata Smarzynska Javorcik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices

scholarly journals The Effect of Inflation, Interest Rates and World Oil Prices on Gold Prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar Exchange Rate as an Intermediary Variable

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ummi Kalsum ◽  
Randy Hidayat ◽  
Sheila Oktaviani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Path Coefficient ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to determine the effect of inflation, interest rates, and world oil prices on fluctuations in gold prices in Indonesia with the US Dollar exchange rate as an intermediary variable. This research is a type of explanatory research with a quantitative approach. The data used are monthly time series data for 2014 - 2019 with a sample of 72 samples. Hypothesis testing in this study uses path analysis, is a development technique of multiple linear regression. This technique is used to test the amount of contribution shown by the path coefficient on each path diagram of the causal relationship between cariables X1, X2, and X3 on and its impact on Z. The results of this study indicate that the effect of inflation, interest rates and worl oil prices on exchange rates individually has very little effect. The effect of inflation, interest rates, world oil prices and the exchange rate on gold prices individually shows a negative value for inflation and interest rates means that the effect is small, while for the world oil price and the dollar exchange rates shows a positive value which means that it has a large effect on the price of gold. The effect of inflation, interest rates and world oil prices on gold prices through the exchange rate, all variable show a negative value, this indicates that the effect is very small.

scholarly journals Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (1914) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lutz Kilian ◽  
◽  
Xiaoqing Zhou ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Oil Prices

scholarly journals Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, Suku Bunga, dan Harga Minyak Dunia Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Industri Pertambangan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Yulia Istia Ningsih ◽  
Muthmainnah Muthmainnah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine how the influence of inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices on the mining industry stock price index in the period 2012-2015. The object in the 2012-2015 research period is mining companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The population used in this study were 31 mining companies and was based on a purposive sampling method which produced a sample of 11 companies. The dependent variable is represented by the mining industry stock price index, while the independent variables in this study are inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and world oil prices. Partially the results of this study indicate that during the 2012-2015 period the variable exchange rates and world oil prices affected the mining industry's stock price index, while inflation and interest rates did not affect the stock price index mining industry. Simultaneously shows the influence of independent variables on the mining industry stock price index.

scholarly journals Oil price and Indonesian economic growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 152-162
Author(s):  
Sultan ◽  
Julius Jhonny Sarungu ◽  
Albertus Maqnus Soesilo ◽  
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

Oil prices and economic growth are important indicators to see the success of Indonesia’s development performance. The use of oil as the world’s main energy source in general and Indonesia in particular is driven by industrialization. The more industries, the greater the energy resources needed. In the same context, economic growth will also increase oil demand. The purpose of this study is to examine and create empirical evidence of the relationship between world oil prices and economic growth towards domestic oil prices. Furthermore, to test and create empirical evidence on the relationship of domestic oil prices, agriculture, trade, investment, inflation, interest rates, industry, labor, exchange rates and balance of payments to economic growth. The expected output of this research will be to provide information on the policy of the transmission mechanism of oil prices and economic growth in Indonesia. The method used is descriptive and econometric approach to the analysis of simultaneous equation models with two stages of the least squares method. The results of the study indicate that there is a simultaneous relationship between oil prices and economic growth. Economic growth, world oil prices and domestic oil prices a year ago had a positive effect on domestic oil prices. The second result shows that domestic oil, agriculture, investment, interest rates, industry, exchange rates, balance of payments and economic growth in the previous year have a positive effect on economic growth, while trade, inflation and labor have a negative influence on economic growth.

scholarly journals DETERMINANT ANALYSIS IN PROPERTY STOCKS INDEX AT INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 255-267
Author(s):  
Alfan Samsuar ◽  
Pardomuan Sihombing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Determinant Analysis

This research aims to determine those influence of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, world oil prices and world gold prices against the property sector stock index which registered In Indonesia Stock Exchange. These population of research were all activities from monthly movement of property sector stock index, inflation, exchange rates, BI interest rates, world oil prices and world gold prices. The sample chosen method by purposive sampling where the researcher gathered its data based on proficiency strategies or personal considerations, selecting data based on these following criteria: 1) Availability of macro economic data that affects shares from property sector during January 2016 to December 2019; and 2) Availability of property stock index data from January 2016 till December 2019. The model used in this research was the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). With The results showed that: 1) ISP responsiveness to inflation movements where stumbled or shocks that occur on inflation had positive influence towards ISP movements; 2) Responsiveness of ISP to instability or shocks that occur in exchange rates will negatively affect ISP movements; 3) Those responsiveness of ISP to the BI rate movement was responded positively; 4) Based on these results from research conducted, the ISP responded negatively on stumbled or shocks towards oil price movements; and 5) ISP responsiveness to movements or shocks to gold price had been responded positively by the ISP.

scholarly journals ANALISIS DAMPAK HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA, TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA DAN KURS VALUTA ASING TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM PERTAMBANGAN PERIODE 2014 – 2016

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Jessica Prania Suradi ◽  
Selly Eriska Marisa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to look at the effect of world crude oil prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates on the mining sector stock price index for the 2014-2016 period. The research method used is descriptive statistical methods with quantitative research types. This study also uses analytical methods such as multiple regression analysis through t test and F test. Based on the F test (simultaneous) shows that world oil prices, interest rates, and foreign exchange rates affect simultaneously on the mining sector stock price index for the period 2014-2016 , while the t test (partial) shows that world crude oil prices a positive but not significant effect on the mining stock price index for the period 2014-2016, the interest rate has a negative effect and significant to the mining sector stock price index for the period 2014-2016, and the foreign exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on the price index mining sector shares in the 2014-2016 period.

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