scholarly journals 125 Years of Time-Varying Effects of Fiscal Policy on Financial Markets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik Marfatia ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Stephen M. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Time Varying

scholarly journals 125 ​Years of time-varying effects of fiscal policy on financial markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 303-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hardik A. Marfatia ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Stephen Miller
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Time Varying

Optimal Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy with Time-Varying Elasticities

1986 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 763
Author(s):  
Jagdeep S. Bhandari ◽  
Donald A. Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Optimal Fiscal Policy

scholarly journals HETEROGENEOUS EXPECTATIONS AND ASSET PRICE DYNAMICS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noemi Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Fixed Number ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Pricing Model ◽  
Rational Agents ◽  
Asset Pricing Model ◽  
Method Of Simulated Moments ◽  
Agents Heterogeneity

Within the seminal asset-pricing model by Brock and Hommes (Journal of Economic Dynamics Control 22, 1235–1274, 1998), heterogeneous boundedly rational agents choose between a fixed number of expectation rules to forecast asset prices. However, agents’ heterogeneity is limited in the sense that they typically switch between a representative technical and a representative fundamental expectation rule. Here, we generalize their framework by considering that all agents follow their own time-varying technical and fundamental expectation rules. Estimating our model using the method of simulated moments reveals that it is able to explain the statistical properties of the daily and monthly behavior of the S&P500 quite well. Moreover, our analysis reveals that heterogeneity is not only a realistic model property but clearly helps to explain the intricate dynamics of financial markets.

scholarly journals The sustainability of Swedish fiscal policy: a re-examination

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arcade Ndoricimpa
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Slope Coefficient ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multiple Structural Changes ◽  
Sustainability Of Fiscal Policy

PurposeThis study reexamines the sustainability of fiscal policy in Sweden.Design/methodology/approachTo test the sustainability of fiscal policy, two approaches are used; the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010), testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model and time-varying cointegration test of Bierens and Martins (2010), and Martins (2015).FindingsUsing the first approach of testing for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, the results indicate that government spending and revenue are cointegrated with two breaks. An estimation of a two-break long-run model shows that the slope coefficient increases from 0.678 to 0.892 from the first to the second regime, implying that fiscal deficits were weakly sustainable in the first two regimes, from 1800 to 1943, and from 1944 to 1974. Further, results from time-varying cointegration test indicate that cointegration between spending and revenue in Sweden is time-varying. Fiscal deficits were found to be unsustainable for the periods 1801–1811, 1831–1838, 1853–1860 , 1872–1882, 1897–1902, 1929–1940 and 1976–1982 and weakly sustainable over the rest of the study period.Research limitations/implicationsA number of implications arise from this study: (1) Accounting for breaks in cointegration analysis and in the estimation of the level relationship between spending and revenue is very important because ignoring breaks may lead to an overestimated slope coefficient and hence a bias on the magnitude of fiscal deficit sustainability. (2) In testing for cointegration between spending and revenue, assuming a constant cointegrating slope when it is actually time-varying can also be misleading because deficits can be sustainable for a period of time and unsustainable over another period.Originality/valueThe contribution of this study is three-fold; first, the study uses a long series of annual data spanning over a period of two centuries, from 1800 to 2011. Second, because of the importance of structural change in economics, to examine the existence of a level relationship between spending and revenue, the study uses the methodology of Kejriwal and Perron (2010) to test for multiple structural changes in a cointegrated regression model, as well as time-varying cointegration of Bierens and Martins (2010) and Martins (2015).

Measuring Dependence Between the USA and the Asian Economies: A Time-varying Copula Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 962-980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shegorika Rajwani ◽  
Dilip Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The Us ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Copula Approach

During the past few years, many of the financial markets have gone through devastating effects due to the crisis in one or the other economy of the world. The recent global financial crisis has triggered dramatic movements in various stock markets which may arise from interdependence or contagion between the markets. This article attempts to measure the contagion between the equity markets of Asia and the US stock market. The countries considered in the Asian group are China, India, Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Japan. Most of the Asian economies have experienced drastic higher volatility and uncertainty in the financial markets. If the markets are contagious, then the investors will be unable to reap benefits through international diversification of the portfolio. In such a case, the policymakers will further frame policies so that they can insulate themselves from inflicting heavy damage from various crises. To achieve our goal, we make use of the time-varying copula approach which helps us to study the joint behaviour of the series based on their marginal distribution. Time-varying copula approach can also capture the non-linear dependence in the series and exhibits a rich pattern of tail behaviour. Our findings support the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US stock market during the global financial crisis. This article also highlights that the increased tail dependence is an important factor for the contagion between the Asian stock markets and the US market.

Government Borrowing and Financial Markets

1985 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
Alan Budd ◽  
Geoffrey Dicks ◽  
Giles Keating
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
List Type ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Recent Developments

This paper considers two questions related to fiscal and monetary poticy in the United Kingdom. The questions are as follows: (i) How do shocks to the economy affect monetary growth?(ii) What effects do changes in the debt/income ratio have on the returns to financial assets?The first question has been previously in relation to the LBS model. The second question has become relevant now that attention is being directed to the possible long-run constraints on fiscal policy. We take the opportunity to study question (i) in response to recent developments of the LBS model. The most significant developments are firstly the incorporation of a model of the financial sector in the LBS model and secondly the ability to incorporate rational expectations into the determination of asset prices in financial markets.

Fiskalpolitik und Finanzmärkte: Perspektiven für Forschung und Wirtschaftspolitik

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (Supplement) ◽  
pp. 13-35
Author(s):  
Gernot Müller
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Fiscal Multiplier ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

AbstractThe conduct of fiscal policy has been altered considerably in the context of the global financial crisis, that is, at times when financial markets conditions were extraordinary turbulent. Yet financial market conditions determine how fiscal impulses are transmitted through the economy and, eventually, the size of the fiscal multiplier. I develop a comprehensive perspective on how financial market conditions alter the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity within a New Keynesian framework. Drawing on historical as well as systematic considerations, I distinguish a scenario of 1) “normal times” characterized by smoothly operating financial markets, 2) financial markets characterized by tight credit conditions in the private sector and constraints on monetary policy and 3) financial markets, in addition, characterized by high sovereign risk. I argue that the size and even the sign of the multiplier may differ across these scenarios.

scholarly journals A time-varying approach to analysing fiscal policy and asset prices in South Africa

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste ◽  
Kanyane Matlou
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Time Varying Parameter ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to study the interplay of fiscal policy and asset prices in a time-varying fashion. Design/methodology/approach – Using South African data since 1966, the authors are able to study the dynamic shocks of both fiscal policy and asset prices on asset prices and fiscal policy based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model. This enables the authors to isolate specific periods in time to understand the size and sign of the shocks. Findings – The results seem to suggest that at least two regimes exist in which expansionary fiscal policy affected asset prices. From the 1970s until 1990, fiscal expansions were associated with declining house and slightly increased stock prices. The majority of the first decade of 2000 had asset prices increasing when fiscal policy expanded. On the other hand, increasing asset prices reduced deficits for the majority of the sample period, while the recent financial crises had a marked change on the way asset prices affect fiscal policy. Originality/value – This is the first attempt in the literature of fiscal policy and asset prices to use a TVP-VAR model to not only analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices, but also the feedback from asset prices to fiscal policy over time.

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