Significant Hot Hand Effect in International Cricket

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Kumar Ram ◽  
Shyam Nandan ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Hot Hand ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

scholarly journals A regularized hidden Markov model for analyzing the ‘hot shoe’ in football

2021 ◽  
pp. 1471082X2110080
Author(s):  
Marius Ötting ◽  
Groll Andreas
Keyword(s):  
Markov Models ◽  
Hidden Markov ◽  
Simulation Experiments ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Psychology And Economics ◽  
Likelihood Approach ◽  
Penalized Likelihood Approach ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

We propose a penalized likelihood approach in hidden Markov models (HMMs) to perform automated variable selection. To account for a potential large number of covariates, which also may be substantially correlated, we consider the elastic net penalty containing LASSO and ridge as special cases. By quadratically approximating the non-differentiable penalty, we ensure that the likelihood can be maximized numerically. The feasibility of our approach is assessed in simulation experiments. As a case study, we examine the ‘hot hand’ effect, whose existence is highly debated in different fields, such as psychology and economics. In the present work, we investigate a potential ‘hot shoe’ effect for the performance of penalty takers in (association) football, where the (latent) states of the HMM serve for the underlying form of a player.

Market Efficiency and the Setting of Salaries for NBA Daily Fantasy on FanDuel and Draft Kings

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 45-60
Author(s):  
Rodney Paul ◽  
Andrew Weinbach ◽  
Jeremy Losak
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
Fantasy Sports ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Daily Fantasy Sports ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

The market for daily fantasy sports for the NBA is examined with respect to efficiency when pricing player salaries for the games.  Simple factors such as home court advantage, rest, and opponent are shown to significantly effect performance beyond posted salaries in the respective markets.  In addition, a “hot hand” effect is found in that players that exceed expectations in previous games are shown to outperform salary-based expectations in the next contest.  These factors yield a rejection of market efficiency as it relates to salaries in the marketplace.  Legal ramifications for these contests as games of skill are examined.

scholarly journals Uncovering predictability of individual and team success: Significant Hot Hand Effect in International Cricket

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Ram ◽  
Shyam Nandan ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Design Of Algorithms ◽  
Temporal Representation ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Predicting Success ◽  
Team Success ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

Abstract We investigate the predictability and persistence (hot-hand effect) of individual and team performance by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.

The Hot Hand Effect in the KLPGA Tournaments

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 75-88
Author(s):  
Dong-Youp Lee ◽  
◽  
Gil-Sun Lee
Keyword(s):  
Hot Hand ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

scholarly journals Second Language Feedback Abolishes the “Hot Hand” Effect during Even-Probability Gambling

2015 ◽  
Vol 35 (15) ◽  
pp. 5983-5989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shan Gao ◽  
Ondrej Zika ◽  
Robert D. Rogers ◽  
Guillaume Thierry
Keyword(s):  
Second Language ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

Hot Hand Effect

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
An T. Oskarsson ◽  
Joanne Kane
Keyword(s):  
Hot Hand ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

scholarly journals Uncovering predictability of individual and team success: Significant Hot Hand Effect in International Cricket

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumit Kumar Ram ◽  
Shyam Nandan ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Team Performance ◽  
Individual Performance ◽  
Design Of Algorithms ◽  
Temporal Representation ◽  
Hot Hand ◽  
Predicting Success ◽  
Team Success ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Hot Hand Effect

Abstract We investigate the predictability and persistence (hot-hand effect) of individual and team performance by analyzing the complete recorded history of international cricket. We introduce an original temporal representation of performance streaks, which is suitable to be modelled as a self-exciting point process. We confirm the presence of predictability and hot-hands across the individual performance and the absence of the same in team performance and game outcome. Thus, Cricket is a game of skill for individuals and a game of chance for the teams. Our study contributes to recent historiographical debates concerning the presence of persistence in individual and collective productivity and success. The introduction of several metrics and methods can be useful to test and exploit clustering of performance in the study of human behavior and design of algorithms for predicting success.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document