Stamp Duty Policy, Housing Speculation, and Property Market Dynamics

Purpose – The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature. Design/methodology/approach – The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles. Findings – The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them. Practical implications – Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst not deterministic, have a rhythm. Cyclical awareness can therefore advance property market participants. Originality/value – The paper uncovers four major and eight auxiliary types of cycles and argues their importance.

Download Full-text

Strange attractor in the Auckland commercial property market

Journal of Property Investment and Finance ◽

10.1108/jpif-10-2019-0138 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 38 (6) ◽

pp. 579-596

Author(s):

Moshe Szweizer

Keyword(s):

Chaos Theory ◽

Mathematical Reasoning ◽

Market Dynamics ◽

Property Market ◽

General Behaviour ◽

Content Type ◽

Commercial Property ◽

Market Conduct ◽

Property Markets ◽

Market Behaviour

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to provide a chaos theory-based framework, which can be used to model commercial property market dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThe paper is presented in two parts. In the first, rigorous mathematical reasoning is entertained, so to derive an attractor describing a set of feedback formulae. In the second part, the attractor definition is used to model the Auckland commercial office market. The model is exposed through a set of seven scenarios allowing for analysis of the market behaviour under various exogenously imposed conditions.FindingsThe general behaviour of the model is in agreement with the commercial property market conduct observed in Auckland. The model provides information related to the market turning points and allows for an explanation of some intricate market dynamics. These include the anatomy of a market peak and its response to the liquidity oversupply.Practical implicationsThe model may be used to expand our understanding of the market performance under various exogenically imposed conditions, which allows for planning of market interventions in a more refined manner.Originality/valueThe paper is original, in the way the chaos theory is applied to the property markets modelling and allows for expanding the understanding of the market behaviour.

Download Full-text

Impact of Stamp Duty Changes on the Irish Commercial Property Market

10.15396/eres2003_217 ◽

2003 ◽

Keyword(s):

Property Market ◽

Commercial Property ◽

Stamp Duty

Download Full-text

Investigating retail property market dynamics through spatial accessibility measures

Journal of European Real Estate Research ◽

10.1108/jerer-01-2018-0009 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 155-172 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Adejimi Alli Adebayo ◽

Paul Greenhalgh ◽

Kevin Muldoon-Smith

Keyword(s):

Space Syntax ◽

Statistical Testing ◽

Spatial Accessibility ◽

Market Dynamics ◽

Data Sets ◽

Property Market ◽

Street Network ◽

Content Type ◽

Retail Property ◽

Rental Value

Purpose The retail property market is constantly adopting to the continuous demand of retailers and their consumers. This paper aims to investigate retail property market dynamics through spatial accessibility measures of the City of York street network. It explores how spatial accessibility metrics (SAM) explain retail market dynamics (RMD) through changes in the city’s retail rental values and stock. Design/methodology/approach Valuation office agency (VOA) data sets (aspatial) and ordnance survey map (spatial) data form the empirical foundation for this investigation. Changes in rental value and retail stock between 2010 and 2017 VOA data sets represent the RMD variables. While, the configured street network measures of Space Syntax, namely, global integration, local integration, global choice and normalised angular choice form the SAM variables. The relationship between these variables is analysed through geo-visualisation and statistical testing using GIS and SPSS tools. Findings The study reveals that there has been an overall negative changes of 15 and 22% in rental value and retail stock, respectively, even though some locations within the sampled city (York, North Yorkshire, England) indicated positive changes. The study further indicated that changes in retail rental value and stock have occurred within locations with good accessibility index. It also verifies that there are spatial and statistical relationship between variables and 22% of RMD variability was jointly accounted for by SAM. Originality/value This research is first to investigates changes in retail property market variables through spatial accessibility measures of space syntax. It contributes to the burgeoning research field of real estate and Space Syntax.

Download Full-text

International Real Estate Review

International Real Estate Review ◽

10.53383/100210 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 473-501

Author(s):

Charles Leung ◽

◽

Tin Cheuk Leung ◽

Kwok Ping Tsang ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hong Kong ◽

Real Estate ◽

Housing Market ◽

Tax Avoidance ◽

Property Market ◽

Cutoff Points ◽

Market Transaction ◽

Stamp Duty ◽

Transaction Tax

We study the implications of a property market transaction tax. As property buyers are obligated to pay a transaction tax ("stamp duty¨ or SD) where the rate increases with the value of the transaction, there are incentives to trade at the cutoff points of the tax schedule or just below them. Thus, both ¡§bunching in transactions¡¨ and ¡§underpricing¡¨ should be observed near those cutoffs. Furthermore, the bunching points should change with the tax schedule. We confirm these conjectures with a rich dataset from the Hong Kong housing market and provide a measure of tax avoidance.

Download Full-text