Estimating the Causal Effect of A Digitally Native Retailer Opening a New Store: A New Two-Step Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Li ◽  
Venkatesh Shankar
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method

scholarly journals Research on Evaluation and Improvement Policy of Higher Education Development Based on TOPSIS-Synthetic Control Method

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Huan-Ming Zhang ◽  
Rui-Qi Ma ◽  
Meng-Xiang Deng ◽  
Xian-Bei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Education Development ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Higher Education Development ◽  
The World

This article aims at the evaluation and improvement of the development of higher education. First of all, according to the theory and hypothesis, the comprehensive evaluation index system of higher education development level is established. The TOPSIS and the combination weighting method based on goal programming are used to measure the scores of higher education development levels of 19 major countries in the world in the recent 20 years, and the horizontal and vertical comparative analysis is carried out. Then, according to the practical feasibility, Turkey is selected as the target country to propose a higher education development and improvement policy by 2030, and the causal effect of our proposed policy is estimated using the synthetic control method. This study can provide a reference for other countries in the world to improve their higher education level.

scholarly journals Spillovers of Urban Road Infrastructure Investment and Operation: a Case Study Using Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
pp. 127-134
Author(s):  
Xiufeng Xing ◽  
Xueying Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Permutation Test ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Jiaozhou Bay ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Road Transportation ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Urban Road

This study evaluates the impacts of urban road investment and operation in China, especially the spillover effect attributable to the investment of urban road projects. Using the synthetic control method and difference-in-differences technique and taking the opening of Jiaozhou Bay Bridge and its Subsea Tunnel in China on 30 June 2011 as a natural experiment, this paper investigates the causal effect between urban road investment and its economic impacts. Results show that the project has a positive externality in terms of its contribution to the output and employment: taken the industrial relative output as outcome variable, no matter whether the covariates are controlled or not, the parameters of the interactive terms are positive; taken the industrial relative employment rate as outcome variable, the gap between the treated unit and its counterpart indicates a direct program effect for the treated city as well as a spillover effect across the cities within the sample province. Furthermore, the permutation test ascertains that the probability of achieving a spillover effect as large as the treated city is around 5.88 per cent. Overall, the investment and operation of urban road transportation infrastructure has a noticeable spillover effect. Our results are robust across a series of placebo tests.

Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2631309X2110178
Author(s):  
Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar ◽  
Bryant Jackson-Green
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Legal Judgments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption

In 2014, the most prominent anti-corruption investigation in Latin America called Lava Jato, exposed a Brazilian corruption scheme with reverberations in 61 countries, resulting in legal judgments for nearly 5 billion USD in reimbursements thus far. This article applies the synthetic control method on data from 135 countries (2002–2018) to test the hypothesis that Lava Jato impacts the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. The findings reveal that Lava Jato negatively affects control of corruption, the rule of law, and regulatory quality. There are signs of possible improvement in at least the corruption and the rule of law measures. This paper brings value to the criminological body of literature, notably lacking in the Global South.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals Campaign Finance Regulations and Public Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
MARTIN GILENS ◽  
SHAWN PATTERSON ◽  
PAVIELLE HAINES
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Campaign Finance ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Citizens United ◽  
Independent Expenditures ◽  
American Elections ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Despite a century of efforts to constrain money in American elections, there is little consensus on whether campaign finance regulations make any appreciable difference. Here we take advantage of a change in the campaign finance regulations of half of the U.S. states mandated by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. This exogenously imposed change in the regulation of independent expenditures provides an advance over the identification strategies used in most previous studies. Using a generalized synthetic control method, we find that after Citizens United, states that had previously banned independent corporate expenditures (and thus were “treated” by the decision) adopted more “corporate-friendly” policies on issues with broad effects on corporations’ welfare; we find no evidence of shifts on policies with little or no effect on corporate welfare. We conclude that even relatively narrow changes in campaign finance regulations can have a substantively meaningful influence on government policy making.

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