scholarly journals Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Nicolò
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

Debates on monetary policy issues and economic situation: Searching for constructive comments

2016 ◽  
pp. 25-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mogilat ◽  
Y. Achkasov ◽  
A. Egorov ◽  
A. Klimovets ◽  
S. Donets
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions

The article discusses approaches and instruments used in the Bank of Russia public analytical materials for analysis and forecast of macroeconomic conditions and monetary indicators. The authors focus on indicators of business cycle and monetary conditions, as crucial for monetary policy analysis. The attention is paid to issues most frequently discussed in scientific and expert literature, specifically, to new indicators and models presented in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Reports in 2015.

scholarly journals Asymmetric dynamics between uncertainty and unemployment flows in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Ahmed ◽  
Mark Granberg ◽  
Victor Troster ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Large Uncertainty ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Uncertainty Measures ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The U.S

AbstractThis paper examines how different uncertainty measures affect the unemployment level, inflow, and outflow in the U.S. across all states of the business cycle. We employ linear and nonlinear causality-in-quantile tests to capture a complete picture of the effect of uncertainty on U.S. unemployment. To verify whether there are any common effects across different uncertainty measures, we use monthly data on four uncertainty measures and on U.S. unemployment from January 1997 to August 2018. Our results corroborate the general predictions from a search and matching framework of how uncertainty affects unemployment and its flows. Fluctuations in uncertainty generate increases (upper-quantile changes) in the unemployment level and in the inflow. Conversely, shocks to uncertainty have a negative impact on U.S. unemployment outflow. Therefore, the effect of uncertainty is asymmetric depending on the states (quantiles) of U.S. unemployment and on the adopted unemployment measure. Our findings suggest state-contingent policies to stabilize the unemployment level when large uncertainty shocks occur.

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