Flattening The Exponential Growth Curve of COVID-19 in Ghana and Other Developing Countries; Divine Intervention Is A Necessity

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Obed Fosu ◽  
Gloria Edunyah
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Divine Intervention

scholarly journals A Hybrid Modeling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks with Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 365
Author(s):  
Chénangnon Frédéric Tovissodé ◽  
Jonas Têlé Doumatè ◽  
Romain Glèlè Kakaï
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Reporting Data

The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modeling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated into a SIQR (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modeled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak (“epidemic latency period”); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed discussion on the effectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.

scholarly journals Maternal Mortality and Female Literacy Rates in Developing Countries during 1970–2000: A Latent Growth Curve Analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijayan K. Pillai ◽  
Arati Maleku ◽  
FangHsun Wei
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Maternal Mortality ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Latent Growth Curve ◽  
Growth Curve Analysis ◽  
Latent Growth ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Female Literacy

Background. The gross longitudinal relationship between female literacy and maternal mortality ratios has not been adequately investigated even though the knowledge of the relationship is crucial for designing maternal mortality reduction programs through female literacy campaigns and improvements. The objective of the study was to examine the dynamic relationship between female literacy and mortality ratios. A longitudinal study design spanning three decades, 1970–2000, was used. Country level data on 143 nations belonging to six geographical regions for the duration 1970–2000 were secured from websites hosted by global agencies such as World Bank and the United Nations were utilized. Maternal mortality ratios (1970–2000) ranged from 147 to 271 across the six regions. The longitudinal relationship between female literacy rates and maternal mortality ratios was examined using a latent growth curve approach. The study found that rates of change in female literacy and maternal mortality ratios are negatively related. Steady rates of increase in female literacy were associated with declining maternal mortality ratios as well. We find that female literacy programs are of immense value in reducing maternal mortality ratios given their ability to yield sustained reductions in mortality levels in developing countries.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Modelling Technique of Epidemic Outbreaks With Application to COVID-19 Dynamics in West Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chénangnon Frédéric Tovissodé ◽  
Jonas Têlé Doumatè ◽  
Romain Glèlè Kakaï
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Latency Period ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Exponential Growth Phase ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Reporting Data

The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modelling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a exible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases. In addition, the growth curves were integrated in a SIQKU (Susceptible, Infective, Quarantined, Known recovered, Unknown recovered) model framework to provide an overview on the modelled epidemic wave. We focused on the estimation of: (1) the delay between the appearance of the first infectious case in the population and the outbreak ("epidemic latency period"); (2) the duration of the exponential growth phase; (3) the basic and the time-varying reproduction numbers; and (4) the peaks (time and size) in confirmed positive cases, active cases and new infections. The application of this approach to COVID-19 data from West Africa allowed to discuss the eectiveness of some containment measures implemented across the region.

The Exponential Growth Curve for the Placental Isoenzyme of Alkaline Phosphatase in Sera of Normal and Diabetic Pregnancies

1973 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Fishman ◽  
Claire L. Anstiss ◽  
Michael P. Pirnik ◽  
Shirley G. Driscoll
Keyword(s):  
Alkaline Phosphatase ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth

Screening of Lactic Acid Bacteria Strains with Respiration Ability in the Present of Heme

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 448-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Hua Jiao ◽  
Lan Wei Zhang ◽  
Fei Liu
Keyword(s):  
Lactic Acid ◽  
Lactic Acid Bacteria ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Viable Cell ◽  
Original Strain ◽  
Respiratory Metabolism ◽  
Respiratory Condition ◽  
Ph Curve ◽  
Fermentative Condition

25 strains of Lactic Acid Bacteria were selected to carry on aerobic cultivating test. It was found that LD33 and 1031 could undergo respiration in the present of heme. compared with the original strain cultivated under fermentative conditions , both its biomass and pH increased. After 45 days storaged at 4°C, the strain LD33 cultivated under fermentative condition was less than 10CFU/mL, while the viable cell count of strain cultivated under respiratory condition was remain 108CFU/mL. Aerobic respiratory metabolism shift occurred in the early exponential growth was indicated by the growth curve and pH curve.

Exact Statistical Inferences about the Parameter for an Exponential Growth Curve following a Poisson Distribution

1970 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-174
Author(s):  
J. K. Lindsey
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Distribution ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Likelihood Function ◽  
Cell Concentration ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Poisson Random Variable ◽  
Relative Likelihood ◽  
Statistical Inferences ◽  
Exponential Increase

A use of the relative likelihood function is described. An example is provided to show exact statistical inferences about the parameter for an exponential increase in cell concentration when the concentration is a Poisson random variable.

Future Trends in the Teaching of Electronics at Regional Engineering Colleges in Developing Countries

1983 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 293-296
Author(s):  
T. K. Bandopadhyaya
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Core Curriculum ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Growth Of Knowledge

To cope with the exponential growth of knowledge in the field of electronics, a broad-based core curriculum with suitable elective is suggested. The structure of electronics courses in regional engineering colleges in India designed to meet this requirement is discussed.

scholarly journals Estimation of the Number of Cumulative COVID-19 Cases by Day in Thailand Based on a Flattened Curve Policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yupaporn AREEPONG ◽  
Rapin SUNTHORNWAT
Keyword(s):  
Growth Curve ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Thai Government

Since December 2019, the world has been facing an emerging infectious disease named coronavirus disease 2019. Thailand has also been affected by the spread of the coronavirus. The Thai government have announced policies to protect people, based on the emergency decree and curfew law for flattening the curve of the number of the coronavirus disease 2019 cases without vaccination in Thailand. This research estimated of the number of total infectious cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in Thailand. Two growth curves, including an exponential growth curve under a non-flattened curve policy (herd immunity policy without vaccination), and a logistic growth curve under a flattened curve policy without vaccination, were selected to estimate the parameters of the curves by the least square method to represent the number of the total infectious cases in Thailand. Moreover, the maximum infectious cases of coronavirus disease 2019 and the speed of spreading for coronavirus disease 2019 in Thailand were also explored. Based on the number of the total infectious cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in Thailand, the findings demonstrated that the coefficient of determination of the logistic growth curve was greater than the exponential growth curve and the root means squared percentage error of the logistic growth curve was less than the exponential growth curve. These results suggest that the logistic growth curve is suitable for describing the number of total infectious cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in Thailand under the fattened curve policy. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

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