Estimating the Natural Interest Rate Using Large Bayesian Time-Varying Local Mean Vector Autoregression with a Common Stochastic Volatility

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bowen Fu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Local Mean ◽  
Mean Vector

scholarly journals The Impact of Stock Prices on Consumption and Interest Rate in Turkey: Evidence from a Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Model

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evrim Tören
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Autoregressive Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the spillovers from stock prices onto consumption and interest rate for Turkey by using a time-varying vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility. A three-variable time-varying vector autoregressive model is estimated to capture the time-varying nature of the macroeconomic dynamics in the Turkish economy between real consumption, nominal interest rate and real stock prices. In order to obtain the macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy, the data covers the period 1987:Q1 until 2013:Q3 in Turkey. The sample data is gathered from the official website of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Overall, this study provides the evidence of significant time-varying spillovers on consumption and interest rate coming from the stock market during financial crises and implications of monetary policy in Turkey. In addition, a time-varying vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility offers remarkable results about the impact of price shock on consumption levels in Turkey.

scholarly journals The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Canada: A Time-Varying Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Ronald Henry Lange
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
Time Varying Coefficients

This study uses the state-space representation of a time-varying vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-VAR-SV) to study monetary policy and private sector behaviour in Canada. The main results indicate that both shock variances and autoregressive coefficients of the VAR have evolved systematically over time. The time-varying coefficients of the systematic component of the VAR suggest that monetary policy has become more proactive and less reactive regarding inflation since the early-1990s, which coincides with the adoption of explicit inflation targets. Monetary policy is now able to focus mainly on movements in the output gap to prevent future increases in inflation. The coefficients on the policy rate in both the output gap and inflation equations suggest that the private sector and therefore the transmission mechanism have become more sensitive to monetary policy responses. On the other hand, the coefficients on the output gap in the equations for both inflation and the policy rate have been relatively stable over this period, consistent with view that monetary policy remains more forward-looking regarding inflation than being reactive to inflation surprises as in the past.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effect of Asset Prices on Turkey’s Circular Economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12373
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Evrim Toren
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sustainable Consumption ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Republic

The study aims to examine the effects of spillovers from stock prices on consumption and interest rates in Turkey. From the circular economy viewpoint, there should be sustainable consumption to achieve sustainable development with the help of consumers and other stakeholders. A time-varying vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility is used in the study. The aim is to obtain dynamics that stimulate growth, development, recession or change within the Turkish economy according to the emphases on circular economy. In order to analyze the relationship between real consumption, nominal interest rate and real stock prices, the TVP-VAR model is specified as a three-variable, time-varying model. The sample data that have been gathered from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey cover the period between Q1 1987 and Q3 2013. Overall, this study provides significant evidence of spillovers on consumption and interest rate during financial crises in Turkey, and the implications of monetary policy. In addition, the TVP model with stochastic volatility offers remarkable results regarding the influence of price shock on consumption in Turkey. However, we do not find any significant effect from interest rate to real consumption.

scholarly journals Lie-Algebraic Approach for Pricing Zero-Coupon Bonds in Single-Factor Interest Rate Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. F. Lo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Algebraic Approach ◽  
Dynamical Symmetry ◽  
Bond Pricing ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Bond Price ◽  
Interest Rate Models ◽  
Root Model

The Lie-algebraic approach has been applied to solve the bond pricing problem in single-factor interest rate models. Four of the popular single-factor models, namely, the Vasicek model, Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, double square-root model, and Ahn-Gao model, are investigated. By exploiting the dynamical symmetry of their bond pricing equations, analytical closed-form pricing formulae can be derived in a straightfoward manner. Time-varying model parameters could also be incorporated into the derivation of the bond price formulae, and this has the added advantage of allowing yield curves to be fitted. Furthermore, the Lie-algebraic approach can be easily extended to formulate new analytically tractable single-factor interest rate models.

PRICING VARIANCE SWAPS UNDER DOUBLE HESTON STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL WITH STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATE

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Huojun Wu ◽  
Zhaoli Jia ◽  
Shuquan Yang ◽  
Ce Liu
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Closed Form ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Characteristic Functions ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rate ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Variance Swaps ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Stochastic Interest

In this paper, we discuss the problem of pricing discretely sampled variance swaps under a hybrid stochastic model. Our modeling framework is a combination with a double Heston stochastic volatility model and a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross stochastic interest rate process. Due to the application of the T-forward measure with the stochastic interest process, we can only obtain an efficient semi-closed form of pricing formula for variance swaps instead of a closed-form solution based on the derivation of characteristic functions. The practicality of this hybrid model is demonstrated by numerical simulations.

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