Transmission Dynamics of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Liu ◽  
Jianxiong Hu ◽  
Min Kang ◽  
Lifeng Lin ◽  
Haojie Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia

2020 ◽  
Vol 382 (13) ◽  
pp. 1199-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qun Li ◽  
Xuhua Guan ◽  
Peng Wu ◽  
Xiaoye Wang ◽  
Lei Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

scholarly journals Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAn outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ∼11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic Severity in Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elinor Aviv-Sharon ◽  
Asaph Aharoni
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Model ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Direct Projection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Spreading Potential ◽  
Pandemic Severity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dynamics Process

Four months into the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this work provides a simple and direct projection of the outbreak spreading potential and the pandemic cessation dates in China, Iran, the Philippines and Taiwan, using the generalized logistic model (GLM). The short-term predicted number of cumulative COVID-19 cases matched the confirmed reports of those who were infected across the four countries, suggesting GLM as a valuable tool for characterizing the transmission dynamics process and the trajectory of COVID-19 pandemic along with the impact of interventions.

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling in Prediction of Novel CoronaVirus (COVID-19) Transmission Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Md. Sharif Uddin ◽  
Md. Taufiq Nasseef ◽  
Mufti Mahmud ◽  
Ali AlArjani
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Future Trend ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
High Infection Rate ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Transmission Process ◽  
High Infection ◽  
Future Prediction ◽  
Novel Virus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Human civilizations are under enormous threats due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) originated from Wuhan, China. The asymptomatic carriers are the potential spreads of this novel virus. Since, guaranteed antiviral treatments have not been available in the market so far, it is really challenging to fight against this contagious disease. To save the living mankind, it is urgent to know more about how the virus transmits itself from one to another quite rapidly and how we can predict future infections. Scientists and Researchers are working hard in investigating to understand its high infection rate and transmission process. One possible way to know is to use our existing COVID-19 infection data and prepare a useful model to predict the future trend. Mathematical modelling is very useful to understand the basic principle of COVID-19 transmission and provide necessary guidelines for future prediction. Here, we have reviewed 9 distinct commonly used models based on Mathematical implementations for COVID-19 transmission and dig into the deep head to head comparison of each model. Finally, we have discussed interesting key behaviour of each model, relevant upcoming important issues, challenges and future directions.

scholarly journals Epidemic Response and Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Khartoum State- Sudan 2020: Study Protocol

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Khidir Mustafa Elnimeiri ◽  
Mohanad Kamaleldin Mahmoud Ibrahim ◽  
Shahenaz Seifaldeen Mustafa Satti
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
World Health ◽  
Cluster Sampling ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Study Participants ◽  
Epidemic Response ◽  
Different Levels

Abstract Background: A novel Coronavirus was identified as severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and the syndrome of clinical manifestation was named (COVID-19). Consequently, on Jan 30, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak as a pandemic and a public health emergency of international concern. The objectives of this research are to investigate the response of the health system at different levels towards the control of the COVID-19 epidemic and to explore the COVID-19 transmission dynamics among Sudanese community. Methods: A community and institutional-based cross sectional based study will be conducted in Khartoum State include all the seven localities. The sample size of participant is estimated at 920 using the population formula (n=N/1+ (n*d2)) and considering the response rate. The sample will be drawn using multistage cluster sampling. Data will be collected using interview with key informant and concerned bodies/institutes involved in the response at both the federal and Khartoum State levels. Administered pre-coded, pretested closed ended questionnaire will be developed to collect data from community participants. Data will be managed and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 21. Analysis is mostly univariate descriptive and bi-variate with Chi Square & Fischer Exact tests analysis to find associations between variables of interest.Discussion: This study is expected to evaluate the extent and magnitude of the epidemic response at different levels in addition to the adequacy of the epidemic response. The study participants will be screened to estimate proportion of individuals per age strata who show sero-positivity for virus infection, thus it will estimate the percentages of individuals reporting symptoms/signs of infection and asymptomatic fraction. The results of this study will strengthen the current interventional approaches of COVID-19 epidemic control and will provide set of database for better planning and implementation of COVID-19 control across the country. It will contribute to in-depth understanding of the COVID-19 transmission dynamics among Sudanese community and will improve the community awareness about COVID-19.

scholarly journals Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A Case Study of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirhoshang Hoseinpour Dehkordi ◽  
Majid Alizadeh ◽  
Pegah Derakhshan ◽  
Peyman Babazadeh ◽  
Arash Jahandideh
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Daily Basis ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mild Case ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe 2019-Novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries and out of about 1197405 confirmed cases (By April 5). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies is critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show more than 80 percent of infected had a mild case of disease, while around 14 percent of infected experienced a severe one and about 5 percent are categorized as critical disease victims. Today’s report (2020-04-05; daily updates in the prepared website) shows the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in US, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632 and 96092; respectively. Calculating the total Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of Italy (2020-04-04), about 13.3% of confirmed cases passed away. Compared to South Korea’s rate of 1.8% (7 times lower than Italy) and China’s 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. There are some effective policies that yield significant changes in the trend of cases. The lockdown policy in China, Italy and Spain (the effect observed after some days), Shutdown of all non-essential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea and reducing working hours in Iran.

scholarly journals Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Masrur ◽  
Manzhu Yu ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Ashraf Dewan
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Active Cluster

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status—e.g., social distancing—this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk “active” cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Affymetrix Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Resequencing GeneChips in Characterization of the Genomes of Two Strains of Coronavirus Infecting Humans

2006 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irshad M. Sulaiman ◽  
Xin Liu ◽  
Michael Frace ◽  
Nikhat Sulaiman ◽  
Melissa Olsen-Rasmussen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Nucleotide Sequences ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Atypical Pneumonia ◽  
Genome Sequences ◽  
Multiple Alignments ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Conventional Sequencing

ABSTRACT Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was discovered during a recent global outbreak of atypical pneumonia. A number of immunologic and molecular studies of the clinical samples led to the conclusion that a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) was associated with the outbreak. Later, a SARS resequencing GeneChip was developed by Affymetrix to characterize the complete genome of SARS-CoV on a single GeneChip. The present study was carried out to evaluate the performance of SARS resequencing GeneChips. Two human SARS-CoV strains (CDC#200301157 and Urbani) were resequenced by the SARS GeneChips. Five overlapping PCR amplicons were generated for each strain and hybridized with these GeneChips. The successfully hybridized GeneChips generated nucleotide sequences of nearly complete genomes for the two SARS-CoV strains with an average call rate of 94.6%. Multiple alignments of nucleotide sequences obtained from SARS GeneChips and conventional sequencing revealed full concordance. Furthermore, the GeneChip-based analysis revealed no additional polymorphic sites. The results of this study suggest that GeneChip-based genome characterization is fast and reproducible. Thus, SARS resequencing GeneChips may be employed as an alternate tool to obtain genome sequences of SARS-CoV strains pathogenic for humans in order to further understand the transmission dynamics of these viruses.

scholarly journals Transmission dynamics of novel Coronavirus–SARS-CoV-2 in South Sumatera, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 100777
Author(s):  
Rico Januar Sitorus ◽  
Irzanita Wathan ◽  
Hibsah Ridwan ◽  
Hariadi Wibisono ◽  
Lesti Nuraini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Novel Coronavirus
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