Türkiye’de Kısa Vadeli Sermaye Akımlarının İktisadi Dalgalanmalar Üzerindeki Etkileri: Bir Uzun Dönem Kısıtlı SVAR Modeli (The Effects of Short-term Capital Flows on Economic Fluctuations in Turkey: A Long-run Restricted SVAR Model)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Şükrü Apaydın ◽  
Hasan Sahin
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model

scholarly journals Does Emigration Hurt the Economy? Evidence from Lithuania

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 440-458
Author(s):  
Gindrute Kasnauskiene ◽  
Remigijus Kavalnis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Losses ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Lower Confidence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study explores the economic impact of population emigration with special reference to the case of Lithuania. For this reason, we developed a SVAR model and applied related IRF and FEVD tools using quarterly data for the period of 2001-2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in emigration is related to lower unemployment. It is also found that the increased emigration is linked to higher real wage growth but with a lower confidence interval. Moreover, our estimates suggest that international out-migration increases real GDP growth in the short term, with no significant effects in the long run perspective. Finally, we found that most of the emigrants-to-be were inactive for a long term prior to departure, which offers a new look into the consequences of Lithuanian emigration, suggesting that the economic losses of emigration could be overstated. This study contributes to the knowledge about the impact of emigration on the economy and specifies directions for further studies in the field.

scholarly journals “GENERAL THEORY” OF J.M. KEYNES: 80 YEARS AFTER

2016 ◽  
pp. 163-171
Author(s):  
A. V. Kholopov
Keyword(s):  
General Theory ◽  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Market Economy ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Main Idea ◽  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Animal Spirits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Keynes General Theory

The Keynes' "General Theory", published 80 years ago, overthrew the neoclassical orthodoxy and created a new understanding of how market economy works. The main idea of the "General Theory" is that the amount of employment depends on the level of effective demand. Keynes believed that much economic activity is governed by "animal spirits" because of the existence of inescapable uncertainty about the future. In Keynes' view these "animal spirits" are the main cause for economic fluctuations. The uncertainty and "animalspirits"make investments unstable. He made distinction between risk (which is measurable) and uncertainty (which is not). This is the reason why Keynes opposed the excessive mathematicization of economics. His another important impact on economics was to switch the focus of economic analysis from the long run to the short term. The message of "General Theory" was that government should manage demand to limit economic fluctuations. The role Keynes gave the state was essentially to reduce uncertainty and to make economy more predictable.

scholarly journals Capital flows and economic growth across spectral frequencies: Evidence from Turkey

2012 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. 441-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuri Yildirim ◽  
Huseyin Tastan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Frequency Bands ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
Portfolio Investments

This paper examines interactions and feedbacks between categories of capital flows and economic growth in Turkey for the 1992:01-2009:08 period. Our empirical analysis is based on a new version of the causality test of John Geweke (1982, p. 77) and Yuzo Hosoya (1991, p. 88) in the frequency domain proposed recently by J?rg Breitung and Bertrand Candelon (2006, p. 132). In addition, using standard methods in spectral analysis, we decompose the total covariance between capital flows and growth across main frequency bands and capture lead/lag interactions between them. Some of our findings are as follows: Variance decompositions over frequency bands reveal that variations in individual capital flow categories are largely concentrated over high (seasonal) frequencies. The nature of the interaction/feedback between growth and capital flows varies significantly over frequency bands and subcategories of flows. Over business cycle frequencies, two out of four subcategories of inflows, short-term external borrowings and portfolio investments on government bonds, drive growth whereas the other two components, long-term borrowings and portfolio investments on shares, are driven by growth. Furthermore, for the post-2001 financial crisis period we found significant bidirectional causality between long-term external borrowings and growth whereas portfolio investments, bond flows and short-term external borrowings do not affect growth in the long run.

The Sustainable Debts of Philip II

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Drelichman ◽  
Hans-Joachim Voth
Keyword(s):  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Military Expenditure ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Philip Ii ◽  
Long Run

This chapter addresses the sustainability of debt. A systematic analysis based on the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) methodology to evaluate fiscal sustainability shows that Castile was able to service its debts in the long run. While liquidity was scarce during periods of intense warfare, years of relative peace brought large surpluses. The data collected from Castile's annual fiscal accounts produced new yearly series of revenue, military expenditure, short-term debt issues, and short-term debt service. The resulting database spans a full 31-year period—enough to employ modern quantitative techniques. This analysis provides strong evidence that Castile's fiscal position in the second half of the sixteenth century was on a solid footing. The chapter then assesses whether the events that led to major downturns in Castile's financial fortunes could have been anticipated.

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

Literalism and Moral Status

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie Figdor
Keyword(s):  
Moral Status ◽  
Moral Standing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Moral Boundaries ◽  
Psychological Capacities

Chapter 9 presents the idea that Literalism undermines current social and moral boundaries for moral status. Possession of psychological capacities, moral standing, and respectful treatment are a standard package deal. So either many more beings enjoy moral status than we now think, or the relative superiority of human moral status over other beings is diminished. It introduces the role of psychological ascriptions in drawing social and moral boundaries by examining dehumanization and anthropomorphism. It argues that in the short term Literalism does not motivate us to do more than make minor adjustments to current moral boundaries. We can distinguish the kinds of psychological capacities that matter for moral status from the kinds that best divide nature at its joints. In the long run, however, Literalism prompts us to reconsider the anthropocentric standards that govern current moral boundaries.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis using Long-Run Restrictions [with Comments]

2004 ◽  
Vol 2004 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-73
Author(s):  
Neville Francis ◽  
Valerie A. Ramey ◽  
Harald Uhlig ◽  
Susanto Basu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run

scholarly journals China’s plastic import ban increases prospects of environmental impact mitigation of plastic waste trade flow worldwide

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zongguo Wen ◽  
Yiling Xie ◽  
Muhan Chen ◽  
Christian Doh Dinga
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Plastic Waste ◽  
Sharp Decline ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Waste Trade ◽  
Treatment Structure

AbstractSince the late 1990s, the trend of plastic waste shipment from developed to developing countries has been increasing. In 2017, China announced an unprecedented ban on its import of most plastic waste, resulting in a sharp decline in global plastic waste trade flow and changes in the treatment structure of countries, whose impacts on global environmental sustainability are enormous but yet unexamined. Here, through the life cycle assessment (LCA) method, we quantified the environmental impacts of changes in the flow patterns and treatment methods of 6 types of plastic waste in 18 countries subsequent to the ban. In the short term, the ban significantly improved four midpoint indicators of environmental impact, albeit contributed to global warming. An annual saving of about 2.35 billion euros of eco-cost was realized, which is equivalent to 56% of plastic waste global trade value in 2017. To achieve global environmental sustainability in the long run, countries should gradually realize the transition from export to domestic management, and from landfill to recycling, which would realize eco-costs savings of about 1.54–3.20 billion euros.

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