Trade Shocks, Growth and Resilience: Eastern Europe’s Adjustment Tale

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Buti ◽  
Istvan P. Szekely
Keyword(s):  
Trade Shocks

The Distributive Impact of Terms of Trade Shocks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Bussolo ◽  
Patrizia Luongo
Keyword(s):  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Trade Shocks

scholarly journals How Resilient Is ASEAN-5 to Trade Shocks? A Comparison of Regional and Global Shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-115
Author(s):  
Mala Raghavan ◽  
Evelyn S. Devadason
Keyword(s):  
Structural Var ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Global Shocks ◽  
Multiplier Effects ◽  
Regional Shocks ◽  
Direct Trade

This article studies the resilience of the ASEAN region to external shocks amid the unfolding effects of the USA–China trade war. It investigates and compares the effects of regional (ASEAN) and global (USA, China) shocks on ASEAN-5 using a Structural VAR (SVAR) framework. To identify the propagation of economic shocks and spillovers on ASEAN-5, the changing trade links between the economies considered are used to account for time variations spanning the period 1978Q1–2018Q2. Three major results follow from the analyses on trade links and output multiplier effects. First, the response of ASEAN-5 to shocks from the USA and China were more pronounced than regional shocks for the period after the Asian financial crisis. Second, the increasing cumulative impact of China’s shock on ASEAN was congruous to the growing trade links and trade intensities between ASEAN and China. Third, the USA and China were dominant growth drivers for the weaker trade-linked ASEAN partners. Taken together, the results suggest that global shocks matter for the region, and the economic resilience of the region to global shocks depends on indirect effects apart from the direct trade links.

scholarly journals The Margins of Global Sourcing: Theory and Evidence from US Firms

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (9) ◽  
pp. 2514-2564 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pol Antràs ◽  
Teresa C. Fort ◽  
Felix Tintelnot
Keyword(s):  
Cost Function ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Global Sourcing ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
Relevant Condition ◽  
Sourcing Decisions ◽  
Country Specific

We develop a quantifiable multi-country sourcing model in which firms self-select into importing based on their productivity and country-specific variables. In contrast to canonical export models where firm profits are additively separable across destination markets, global sourcing decisions naturally interact through the firm's cost function. We show that, under an empirically relevant condition, selection into importing exhibits complementarities across source markets. We exploit these complementarities to solve the firm's problem and estimate the model. Comparing counterfactual predictions to reduced-form evidence highlights the importance of interdependencies in firms' sourcing decisions across markets, which generate heterogeneous domestic sourcing responses to trade shocks. (JEL D24, F14, F23, L14, L21)

scholarly journals Dissecting Export Trade Patterns of Georgian Economy and the Growing Importance of the European Union Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Davit Belkania
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Product Diversification ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Trade Intensity ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
Low Intensity ◽  
Trade Relationship ◽  
Price Instability ◽  
The Eu

From the very beginning of its rebirth after leaving the Soviet Union, Georgia embarked on a transition to a free market economy and linked its fate to western culture. Since then, strengthening the private sector, creating an attractive investment climate, promoting trade liberalization and above all else fostering exports are the main concerns of the country. Thus, as an export-oriented country, close examination of the Georgian export performance is of great importance. Besides the decomposition of general export trends for the period of 2008-2017, this paper applies Balassa index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to identify the key export sectors with comparative advantage and correspondingly with higher growth potential; By this shaping the export promotion policy to prioritize those sectors as the main drivers to increase export earnings. Furthermore, the study employed export product diversification index to gauge the convergence degree of Georgian exports structure by products to the structure of the world; as it significantly affects the resistance of a country towards the trade shocks caused by a price instability of the exported commodities. Eventually, the EU-Georgia trade relationship will be assessed through the trade intensity index to check whether the value of trade between the EU and Georgia is corresponding to the expectations based on their importance in world trade. The results show the comparative advantage for nine products (HS4) that account for -60%- of total exports including all the major sectors of Georgian export production. The diversification degree of export products improved over the last decade but still very poor, thus, it is unlikely for Georgia to resist the external trade shocks in case of a price instability of the exported commodities. Furthermore, despite the removal of the main trade barriers between EU and Georgia, it appears that the bilateral trade relationship is characterized by a low-intensity pattern, meaning that there is much to trade between the partners. The problem of low-intensity can be linked to the lack of accessible export-related information that limits the ability of the new entrants to survive. As a result, discouragement of new firms to become exporters limits the diversification of export basket, which in turn negatively affects the level of trade intensity between the trade partners and decreases the potential trade benefits of bilateral agreements.

scholarly journals Ocena efektu Harbergera-Laursena-Metzlera w polskim sektorze rolno-żywnościowym

2019 ◽  
Vol 106 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-50
Author(s):  
Jacek Strojny
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
The Other ◽  
Food Sector ◽  
Exogenous Factor ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
The Current Account

The aim of the study was to asses the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Polish agro-food sector. The analysis covers period of 2002-2017. There was applied the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. The outcome of the research revealed that permanent deterioration in terms of trade contributed to the current account of Polish agribusiness sector improvement. The temporary effect of terms of trade shocks was not indentified. Additionally, the research enabled recognition of gross value added (GVA) as the most exogenous factor of the VAR system. On the other hand most endogenous factor of the model is the current account. The variable permanent terms of trade is more exogenous factor than the current account.

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