Innovation Activities and Business Cycles: Are Trademarks a Leading Indicator?

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles deGrazia ◽  
Amanda Myers ◽  
Andrew A. Toole
2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 184-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles A. W. deGrazia ◽  
Amanda Myers ◽  
Andrew A. Toole

Author(s):  
Diego F. Grijalva ◽  
Mary Lou Ponsetto ◽  
Yelitza Pontón

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how the expansionary phase of a business cycle driven by an exogenous commodity price shock (oil) affects R&D expenditures among Ecuadorian firms. Design/methodology/approach Using two rounds of the Ecuadorian National Science, Technology and Innovation Activities Survey (ACTI 2012 and 2015) and a data set on gross value added (GVA) by industry, we run a sample correction model applied to a panel data of 1,023 firms from 2009 to 2014. Findings In deciding whether to invest in R&D, the higher an industry’s GVA, the lower the predicted probability that firms in that industry would invest. Additionally, R&D investments are not procyclical, and there is marginal evidence that they might actually be countercyclical. These findings are consistent with Schumpeter (1939) and Ouyang (2011) and are likely due to an increased opportunity cost of R&D investment during the oil boom. Originality/value In this study, we examine a boom period and not a full business cycle. This boom is driven by an exogenous shock, deviating from much of the current literature, which focuses on endogenously driven business cycles. This paper examines how the oil shock impacted a variety of industries, and not just attractive ones. Additionally, this paper adds to the limited literature around R&D and business cycles in Latin America.


2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-501
Author(s):  
Andrea Tkáčová ◽  
Marianna Siničáková

The objective of the paper is to create a composite leading indicator (CLI) for monitoring and predicting Hungarian business cycles. We compare the existing CLI applied by the OECD and Eurostat with our own CLI. According to our findings, our CLI forecasts the evolution of a referential series more precisely than the CLIs developed by the OECD and Eurostat. Nevertheless, from our point of view, the application of all existing CLIs at the same time can be appropriate. Consequently, the number of false signals should be reduced. The CLIs allow us to receive the first rough preliminary estimations of an economic cycle, in our case, the Hungarian one.


2010 ◽  
pp. 78-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Klinov

Rates and factors of modern world economic growth and the consequences of rapid expansion of the economies of China and India are analyzed in the article. Modification of business cycles and long waves of economic development are evaluated. The need of reforming business taxation is demonstrated.


2006 ◽  
pp. 102-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Skorobogatov

The paper is dedicated to the New Institutional and Post Keynesian perspectives on institutions and their relation to economic stability. Embeddedness, institutional environment, and institutional arrangements are considered. Within these institutions conventional expectations, the economic policy and forward contracts are analyzed. Upon these perspectives the author shows a contradictory relation between institutions and the order and develops an institutional theory of business cycles.


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