What Keynes Stated in 1937, As He Had Stated in 1921 and 1936, Was That ’We Simply Do Not Know (About the Distant or Far Future)': The Post Keynesian (Robinson, Shackle, Weintraub, Davidson) Claim That Keynes Said Only That 'We Simply Do Not Know' Period is a Total Fabrication

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Far Future

scholarly journals Dynamical system analysis of FLRW models with Modified Chaplygin gas

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Osman Yılmaz ◽  
Ertan Güdekli
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical System ◽  
Equation Of State ◽  
Energy Density ◽  
System Analysis ◽  
Chaplygin Gas ◽  
Modified Chaplygin Gas ◽  
State Spaces ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Matter Energy ◽  
Far Future

AbstractWe investigate Friedmann–Lamaitre–Robertson–Walker (FLRW) models with modified Chaplygin gas and cosmological constant, using dynamical system methods. We assume $$p=(\gamma -1)\mu -\dfrac{A}{\mu ^\alpha }$$ p = ( γ - 1 ) μ - A μ α as equation of state where $$\mu$$ μ is the matter-energy density, p is the pressure, $$\alpha$$ α is a parameter which can take on values $$0<\alpha \le 1$$ 0 < α ≤ 1 as well as A and $$\gamma$$ γ are positive constants. We draw the state spaces and analyze the nature of the singularity at the beginning, as well as the fate of the universe in the far future. In particular, we address the question whether there is a solution which is stable for all the cases.

scholarly journals Projection of Hydro-Climatic Extreme Events under Climate Change in Yom and Nan River Basins, Thailand

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 665
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Supattra Visessri ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Floods ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Due to a continuous increase in global temperature, the climate has been changing without sign of alleviation. An increase in the air temperature has caused changes in the hydrologic cycle, which have been followed by several emergencies of natural extreme events around the world. Thailand is one of the countries that has incurred a huge loss in assets and lives from the extreme flood and drought events, especially in the northern part. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological regime in the Yom and Nan River basins, affected by climate change as well as the possibility of extreme floods and droughts. The hydrological processes of the study areas were generated via the physically-based hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The projected climate conditions were dependent on the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 between 2021 and 2095. Results show that the average air temperature, annual rainfall, and annual runoff will be significantly increased in the intermediate future (2046–2070) onwards, especially under RCP 8.5. According to the Flow Duration Curve and return period of peak discharge, there are fluctuating trends in the occurrence of extreme floods and drought events under RCP 2.6 from the future (2021–2045) to the far future (2071–2095). However, under RCP 8.5, the extreme flood and drought events seem to be more severe. The probability of extreme flood remains constant from the reference period to the near future, then rises dramatically in the intermediate and the far future. The intensity of extreme droughts will be increased in the near future and decreased in the intermediate future due to high annual rainfall, then tending to have an upward trend in the far future.

scholarly journals Flooding Conditions at Aveiro Port (Portugal) within the Framework of Projected Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 595
Author(s):  
Américo Soares Ribeiro ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
Magda Catarina Sousa ◽  
Moncho Gomez-Gesteira ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Wave Regime ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Far Future

Ports constitute a significant influence in the economic activity in coastal areas through operations and infrastructures to facilitate land and maritime transport of cargo. Ports are located in a multi-dimensional environment facing ocean and river hazards. Higher warming scenarios indicate Europe’s ports will be exposed to higher risk due to the increase in extreme sea levels (ESL), a combination of the mean sea level, tide, and storm surge. Located on the west Iberia Peninsula, the Aveiro Port is located in a coastal lagoon exposed to ocean and river flows, contributing to higher flood risk. This study aims to assess the flood extent for Aveiro Port for historical (1979–2005), near future (2026–2045), and far future (2081–2099) periods scenarios considering different return periods (10, 25, and 100-year) for the flood drivers, through numerical simulations of the ESL, wave regime, and riverine flows simultaneously. Spatial maps considering the flood extent and calculated area show that most of the port infrastructures' resilience to flooding is found under the historical period, with some marginal floods. Under climate change impacts, the port flood extent gradually increases for higher return periods, where most of the terminals are at high risk of being flooded for the far-future period, whose contribution is primarily due to mean sea-level rise and storm surges.

scholarly journals Valuing the Future, Discounting in Random Environments: A Review

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaume Masoliver ◽  
Miquel Montero ◽  
Josep Perelló ◽  
J. Doyne Farmer ◽  
John Geanakoplos
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Random Environments ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Future Discounting ◽  
Pricing Theory ◽  
Risk Neutral Measures ◽  
Far Future

We address the process of discounting in random environments which allows to value the far future in economic terms. We review several approaches to the problem regarding different well-established stochastic market dynamics in the continuous-time context and include the Feynman-Kac approach. We also review the relation between bond pricing theory and discount and introduce the market price of risk and the risk neutral measures from an intuitive point of view devoid of excessive formalism. We provide the discount for each economic model and discuss their key results. We finally present a summary of our previous empirical studies on several countries of the long-run discount problem.

scholarly journals On freedom in the times of Economic Crisis – A Close Reading Of Margaret Atwood's The Heart Goes Last

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-154
Author(s):  
Ewelina Feldman-Kołodziejuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Margaret Atwood ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Close Reading ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Economic Experiment ◽  
Experimental Project ◽  
The Times ◽  
Far Future

In her fifth dystopian novel, The Heart Goes Last, Margaret Atwood portrays North America in the not so far future, in the wake of a global economic crisis. Parts of the country are in the state of complete chaos, subjected to a ruthless gang rule. The solution to the system's breakdown comes in the form of the socio-economic experiment that requires from its participants relinquishing their freedom as every other month they will spend in prison. The seemingly preposterous experimental project enables Atwood to explore principal questions about the limits of our freedom in the times of an economic crisis or a neoliberal model of economy. The satirical form the novel takes, especially towards its end, helps the writer to decry people's over-willingness to give away their freedom and civil liberties in exchange for happy, uninterrupted consumption. The following article aims to demonstrate that the notion of freedom and free will permeate The Heart Goes Last, which is, in that respect, a politically and socially engaged satire.

scholarly journals Visions of Human Futures in Space and SETI

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason T. Wright ◽  
Michael P. Oman-Reagan
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Science Fiction ◽  
Dark Matter Particle ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Science ◽  
The Galaxy ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future ◽  
Made In

We discuss how visions for the futures of humanity in space and SETI are intertwined, and are shaped by prior work in the fields and by science fiction. This appears in the language used in the fields, and in the sometimes implicit assumptions made in discussions of them. We give examples from articulations of the so-called Fermi Paradox, discussions of the settlement of the Solar System (in the near future) and the Galaxy (in the far future), and METI. We argue that science fiction, especially the campy variety, is a significant contributor to the ‘giggle factor’ that hinders serious discussion and funding for SETI and Solar System settlement projects. We argue that humanity's long-term future in space will be shaped by our short-term visions for who goes there and how. Because of the way they entered the fields, we recommend avoiding the term ‘colony’ and its cognates when discussing the settlement of space, as well as other terms with similar pedigrees. We offer examples of science fiction and other writing that broaden and challenge our visions of human futures in space and SETI. In an appendix, we use an analogy with the well-funded and relatively uncontroversial searches for the dark matter particle to argue that SETI's lack of funding in the national science portfolio is primarily a problem of perception, not inherent merit.Also on arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.05318Please cite this version:Wright, Jason T., and Michael P. Oman-Reagan. “Visions of Human Futures in Space and SETI.” International Journal of Astrobiology, 2017, 1–12. doi:10.1017/S1473550417000222.

scholarly journals PEMANFAATAN MODEL PROYEKSI IKLIM DAN SIMULASI TANAMAN DALAM PENGUATAN ADAPTASI SISTEM PERTANIAN PADI TERHADAP PENURUNAN PRODUKTIVITAS AKIBAT PERUBAHAN IKLIM: STUDI KASUS DI KABUPATEN SUMEDANG, JAWA BARAT

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 159
Author(s):  
Candradijaya A
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Irrigation Scheduling ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Planting Time ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

Despite the well-documented model-simulated adverse climate change impact on rice yields reported elsewhere, interventions to address the issue seem to be still limited, particularly at local level. This links to the uncertainty that entails to climate projection and its likely future impact, which varies across regions and climate models. The study analyzes climate change-induced rice yield reduction and the adequacy of current adaptations, to cope with a large range of impact under various climate models. Seventeen General Circulation Models (GCMs) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) climate change with scenarios of RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, combined with CROPWAT model for near-future (2011-2040) and far-future (2041-2070) projections. The study was conducted in November-December 2013, in Ujungjaya Subdistrict, the District of Sumedang. The output confirms yield reduction to occur in the near-future, to the extent variable across the GCMs. At the highest estimation, rice yield decreases by 32.00% and 31.81%, in comparison to baseline, for near-future under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. The reduction extends, with a slightly higher degree, to the far-future. The reduction is sensitive to variation in farming practices of the local farmers, in particular that in planting time and irrigation scheduling. The shifting of planting time to better match rainfall pattern reduces the rice yield by 12.95% for rainfed and 14.07% for the irrigated farming. Meanwhile, improved irrigation scheduling reduces the yield reduction by 16.16%. The findings provide valuable inputs for relevant authorities to understand the climate change-induced rice yield reduction, and to formalate intervention strategies for spesific-location adaptation.

scholarly journals Protecting Sentient Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Lay Intuitions on Standing, Personhood, and General Legal Protection

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Martínez ◽  
Christoph Winter
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
United States ◽  
Intelligent Systems ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
Legal Protection ◽  
Legal Doctrine ◽  
Legal Personhood ◽  
Political Differences ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Far Future

To what extent, if any, should the law protect sentient artificial intelligence (that is, AI that can feel pleasure or pain)? Here we surveyed United States adults (n = 1,061) on their views regarding granting 1) general legal protection, 2) legal personhood, and 3) standing to bring forth a lawsuit, with respect to sentient AI and eight other groups: humans in the jurisdiction, humans outside the jurisdiction, corporations, unions, non-human animals, the environment, humans living in the near future, and humans living in the far future. Roughly one-third of participants endorsed granting personhood and standing to sentient AI (assuming its existence) in at least some cases, the lowest of any group surveyed on, and rated the desired level of protection for sentient AI as lower than all groups other than corporations. We further investigated and observed political differences in responses; liberals were more likely to endorse legal protection and personhood for sentient AI than conservatives. Taken together, these results suggest that laypeople are not by-and-large in favor of granting legal protection to AI, and that the ordinary conception of legal status, similar to codified legal doctrine, is not based on a mere capacity to feel pleasure and pain. At the same time, the observed political differences suggest that previous literature regarding political differences in empathy and moral circle expansion apply to artificially intelligent systems and extend partially, though not entirely, to legal consideration, as well.

Thinking after the World: Deconstruction and Last Things

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ted Toadvine
Keyword(s):  
Collective Identities ◽  
Contemporary Culture ◽  
Total Destruction ◽  
Environmental Narratives ◽  
The World ◽  
End Of The World ◽  
Far Future

The apocalyptic visions of the end of the world that dominate contemporary culture have merged with environmental narratives to the point of indistinguishability. These eco-eschatologies are phantasms, fabulous stories that construct our individual and collective identities, desires, and fears in the present—a present characterized by ecotechnical interdependence and calculative management of the far future. Coming to terms with our apocalyptic obsession and its implications for the sense of the world here and now requires an ecophenomenology of the end of the world, but one that, through its encounter with deconstruction, stretches both “eco” and “phenomenology” toward a hyperbolic transformation. In conversation with Nancy and Derrida, this chapter proposes that the phantasm of the world’s destruction bolsters our pretense of one world in common precisely by presenting this world as under threat. The withdrawal of the world as cosmos or lifeworld nevertheless discloses another sense of world as our liability to elemental geomateriality. By no longer envisioning things against a background of absolute contingency, vulnerable to total destruction, we may learn to stop dreaming of apocalypse or apotheosis and thereby open a relation to the present no longer governed by what Nancy has termed the “catastrophe of general equivalence.”

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