Manifestations of Political Uncertainty around US Presidential Elections: Cross-Sectional Evidence from the Option Market

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Kostakis ◽  
Konstantinos Gkionis ◽  
Konstantinos Stathopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Option Market

scholarly journals Political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees: evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fawad Ahmad ◽  
Michael Bradbury ◽  
Ahsan Habib
Keyword(s):  
Political Stability ◽  
Audit Fees ◽  
Political Connections ◽  
Stable Form ◽  
Political Connection ◽  
Business Risk ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
General Measure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type

Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. The authors use various measures of political connections and uncertainty: political connections (civil and military), political events (elections) and a general measure of political stability (i.e. a world bank index). Design/methodology/approach The authors measure the association between political connections, political uncertainty and audit fees. Audit fees reflect auditors’ perceptions of risk. The authors examine auditors’ business risk, clients’ audit and business risk after controlling for the variables used in prior audit fee research. Findings Results indicate that civil-connected firms pay significantly higher audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the instability of civil-political connections. Military-connected firms pay significantly lower audit fees than non-connected firms owing to the stable form of government. Furthermore, considering high leverage as a measure of clients’ high audit risk and high return-on-assets (ROA) as a measure of clients’ lower business risk, the authors interact leverage and ROA with civil and military connections. The results reveal that these risks moderate the relationship between political connection and audit fees. Election risk is independent of risk associated with political connections. General political stability reinforces the theme that a stable government results in lower risks. Originality/value The authors combine cross-sectional measures of political uncertainty (civil or military connections) with time-dependent measures (general measures of political instability and elections).

The Complicated Partisan Effects of State Election Laws

2017 ◽  
Vol 70 (3) ◽  
pp. 564-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden ◽  
David T. Canon ◽  
Kenneth R. Mayer ◽  
Donald P. Moynihan
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
County Level ◽  
Election Law ◽  
Difference In Difference ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
Registration Laws ◽  
Election Laws ◽  
Voting Laws

Conventional political wisdom holds that policies that make voting easier will increase turnout and ultimately benefit Democratic candidates. We challenge this assumption, questioning the ability of party strategists to predict which changes to election law will advantage them. Drawing on previous research, we theorize that voting laws affect who votes in diverse ways depending on the specific ways that they reduce the costs of participating. We assemble datasets of county-level vote returns in the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections and model these outcomes as a function of early voting and registration laws, using both cross-sectional regression and difference-in-difference models. Unlike Election Day registration, and contrary to conventional wisdom, the results show that early voting generally helps Republicans. We conclude with implications for partisan manipulation of election laws.

Some Dynamic Elements of Contests for the Presidency

1966 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald E. Stokes
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Erie County ◽  
Social Determinism ◽  
Short Term Change ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Electoral Change ◽  
American Elections

Despite the measured pace of American elections, there have now been a number of presidential campaigns since the advent of survey studies of voting. However sparingly, political history slowly has added to the set of distinct configurations of men and events which comprise a contest for the Presidency. The set is still small, whatever the impression created by massed thousands of interviews or by the accompanying files of election returns. Yet it is now large enough to be pressed hard for evidence about the sources of electoral change.A primary virtue of measurements extended over a series of elections is that they can throw light on the problem of change. So long as the earliest voting studies were confined to cross-sectional relationships, they could deal only very inadequately with changes superimposed on these relationships or with changes in the relationships themselves. In the case of Lazarsfeld's enormously influential Erie County study in 1940, the natural limitations of a single-election study were compounded by the investigators' misfortune in choosing a campaign whose dominant personality and principal issues differed little from those of preceding elections. I have often wondered whether the static social determinism of The People's Choice would have emerged from a campaign in which the tides of short-term change were more nearly at flood.I shall examine here some sources of change which are richly evident in the presidential elections of the last two decades.

scholarly journals Cote d'Ivoire

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (366) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
West African ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Moderate Risk ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
The West ◽  
External Stability ◽  
One Year

Political uncertainty has risen ahead of the 2020 presidential elections, after the ruling coalition between President Ouattara’s and former President Bédié’s parties ended in the summer of 2018. The authorities have requested a one-year program extension to provide an important stability anchor through 2020. The extension will help meet balance of payment needs, foster fiscal discipline, and sustain reforms, in turn helping support the West African Economic and Monetary Union’s external stability. Policies will center on preserving the program’s momentum, particularly adhering to the 3 percent of GDP budget deficit ceiling, preserving a moderate risk of debt distress and fostering private sector-led growth.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document