scholarly journals Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tommaso Monacelli ◽  
Luca Sala ◽  
Daniele Siena
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economies ◽  
Real Interest Rates

scholarly journals Does Forward Guidance Matter in Small Open Economies? Examples from Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Jakub Rybacki
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Small Open Economies ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
European Economies

The effect of forward guidance on interest rate expectations in small, open economies is often described as heterogeneous. There are examples when financial markets adjusted term structure to reflect interest rate forecasts provided in the projections published by the central banks. On the other hand, medium-term expectations can persistently deviate from trajectories presented by decision-makers, influenced by foreign monetary policy. Our aim is to find the maximal forecast horizon where the domestic forward guidance of local banks in European economies affects market interest rate expectations strongly as compared to the ECB policy. We analyzed the term structure of interest rates in Sweden, Norway, and the Czech Republic. Central banks in these three economies provide the most mature forward guidance, e.g., regularly publishing interest rate forecasts with detailed discussions. The three-month interbank rate path calculated with the Nelson-Siegel model was contrasted with both the trajectory of policy rates presented in central bank projections and that implied by the three-month EURIBOR. We found that interest rate expectations were more influenced by ECB policy than by domestic assumptions when the forecast horizon exceeds four quarters.

Monetary and macroprudential policy under global financial cycle: The experience of small open economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-31
Author(s):  
R. R. Akhmetov ◽  
M. E. Mamonov ◽  
V. A. Pankova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economies ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
The Impact

This review examines the impact of the global financial cycle on small open economies and compares the effectiveness of various monetary and macroprudential policies in the presence of global financial cycle. First, we provide a classification of the channels through which the monetary policy of the world financial regulators (US Federal Reserve, ECB), which largely determines the global financial cycle, is transmitted to small open economies: the channel for interest rates differential, the channel for the activities of global financial institutions, and the channel for commodity prices. Second, by analyzing the arguments of supporters and critics of the monetary policy trilemma, we show how the literature comes to the conclusion that inflation targeting policy is still one of the most optimal solutions for achieving the goals of price and macroeconomic stability but fails to ensure financial stability. The latter requires active coordination with macroprudential policy measures. These conclusions are supported by the analysis of case studies of specific countries (Russia, New Zealand, Brazil, Turkey, etc.), which attempted to mitigate negative consequences of the 2007—2009 global financial crisis.

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