Monetary Policy Uncertainty, Credit Risk and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Li
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Policy Uncertainty

Monetary policy uncertainty and jumps in advanced equity markets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elie Bouri ◽  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Clement Kyei
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Policy Uncertainty

scholarly journals A RECONSIDERATION OF THE DOCTRINAL FOUNDATIONS OF MONETARY POLICY RULES: FISHER VERSUS CHICAGO

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-82
Author(s):  
George S. Tavlas
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Direct Link ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules

There has long been a presumption that the price-level stabilization frameworks of Irving Fisher and Chicagoans Henry Simons and Lloyd Mints were essentially equivalent. I show that there were subtle, but important, differences in the rationales underlying the policies of Fisher and the Chicagoans. Fisher’s framework involved substantial discretion in the setting of the policy instruments; for the Chicagoans the objective of a policy rule was to tie the hands of the authorities in order to reduce discretion and, thus, monetary policy uncertainty. In contrast to Fisher, the Chicagoans provided assessments of the workings of alternative rules, assessed various criteria—including simplicity and reduction of political pressures—in the specification of rules, and concluded that rules would provide superior performance compared with discretion. Each of these characteristics provided a direct link to the rules-based framework of Milton Friedman. Like Friedman’s framework, Simons’s preferred rule targeted a policy instrument.

scholarly journals South Africa’s economic response to monetary policy uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 282-293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Balcilar ◽  
Rangan Gupta ◽  
Charl Jooste
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Central Bankers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of monetary policy uncertainty and its impact on the South African economy. Design/methodology/approach The authors use a sign restricted SVAR with an endogenous feedback of stochastic volatility to evaluate the sign and size of uncertainty shocks. The authors use a nonlinear DSGE model to gain deeper insights about the transmission mechanism of monetary policy uncertainty. Findings The authors show that monetary policy volatility is high and constant. Both inflation and interest rates decline in response to uncertainty. Output rebounds quickly after a contemporaneous decrease. The DSGE model shows that the size of the uncertainty shock matters – high uncertainty can lead to a severe contraction in output, inflation and interest rates. Research limitations/implications The authors model only a few variables in the SVAR – thus missing perhaps other possible channels of shock transmission. Practical implications There is a lesson for monetary policy: monetary policy uncertainty, in isolation from general macroeconomic uncertainty, often creates unintended adverse consequences and can perpetuate a weak economic environment. The tasks of central bankers are incredibly difficult. Their models project output and inflation with relatively large uncertainty based on many shocks emanating from various sources. It matters how central bankers react to these expectations and how they communicate the underlying risks associated with setting interest rates. Originality/value This is the first study that looks into monetary policy uncertainty into South Africa using a stochastic volatility model and a nonlinear DSGE model. The results should be very useful for the Central Bank as it highlights how uncertainty, that they create, can have adverse economic consequences.

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION IN BASEL III: GLOBAL TRENDS

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-47
Author(s):  
Larysa BATIUK
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Financial Intermediation ◽  
Macroeconomic Fluctuations ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Banking Supervision ◽  
Basel Committee ◽  
Real Wealth

Introduction. The article deals with the peculiarities of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the implementation conditions of the Basel Committee requirements on Banking Supervision "Basel III". The problem of the mechanism violation of the classical monetary multiplier, the imbalance of the monetary circulation system, the frequency increase of debt defaults and the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations in the global economic system are marked as a study result of the effects of the credit mitigation policy conducted by the US Federal Reserve amid the global financial crises of the last decade and changes in the nature of financial intermediation based on the synthesis of asset securitization and structured finance instruments. The purpose of this article is to investigate changes in monetary policy and financial intermediation in the implementation context of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Basel III as a source of imbalance in the global economy. Research methodology. The system method, method of scientific abstraction, methods of analysis and synthesis, statistical, comparison, generalization, scientific prediction were used. Results. The article deals with the implications of implementing the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Basel I and Basel II in the area of monetary policy and financial intermediation; peculiarities of monetary multiplier mechanism operation in modern conditions are revealed; the possible consequences of implementing Basel III requirements for the mechanism of monetary supply formation in the world economy are analysed; the change in the role of gold as monetary metal in central bank foreign exchange reserves and the implications of these changes in terms of price dynamics and the distribution of real wealth in the global economy are examined. Conclusions. It is proposed to consider the requirements of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision "Basel III" as such, which will exacerbate the volatility of global financial markets, increase the likelihood of increasing the frequency of debt defaults and, given the possibility of using gold as a means of redistribution of real wealth in the global economy, will cause an increase in the amplitude of macroeconomic fluctuations. Keywords: monetary policy; financial intermediation; the central bank; US Federal Reserve; Basel III; bank capital structure, monetary base; money multiplier, correspondent accounts; money supply; monetary gold; global economy.

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