This paper examines the role of loan characteristics in mortgage default probability for different mortgage lenders in the UK. The accuracy of default prediction is tested with two statistical methods, a probit model and linear discriminant analysis, using a unique dataset of defaulted commercial loan portfolios provided by sixty-six financial institutions. Both models establish that the attributes of the underlying real estate asset and the lender are significant factors in determining default probability for commercial mortgages. In addition to traditional risk factors such as loan-to-value and debt servicing coverage ratio lenders and regulators should consider loan characteristics to assess more accurately probabilities of default.
AbstractWhitehouse adapts insights from evolutionary anthropology to interpret extreme self-sacrifice through the concept of identity fusion. The model neglects the role of normative systems in shaping behaviors, especially in relation to violent extremism. In peaceful groups, increasing fusion will actually decrease extremism. Groups collectively appraise threats and opportunities, actively debate action options, and rarely choose violence toward self or others.
AbstractIntuitions guide decision-making, and looking to the evolutionary history of humans illuminates why some behavioral responses are more intuitive than others. Yet a place remains for cognitive processes to second-guess intuitive responses – that is, to be reflective – and individual differences abound in automatic, intuitive processing as well.
Abstract
Tomasello offers a compelling account of the emergence of humans’ sense of obligation. We suggest that more needs to be said about the role of affect in the creation of obligations. We also argue that positive emotions such as gratitude evolved to encourage individuals to fulfill cooperative obligations without the negative quality that Tomasello proposes is inherent in obligations.
The role of neighborhood characteristics in mortgage default risk: Evidence from New York City