scholarly journals Uncovering Long Term Relationships between Oil Prices and the Economy: A Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Gogolin ◽  
Fearghal Joseph Kearney ◽  
Brian M. Lucey ◽  
Maurice Peat ◽  
Samuel Vigne
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Time Varying

scholarly journals Uncovering long term relationships between oil prices and the economy: A time-varying cointegration analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 76 ◽  
pp. 584-593 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Gogolin ◽  
Fearghal Kearney ◽  
Brian M. Lucey ◽  
Maurice Peat ◽  
Samuel A. Vigne
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Time Varying

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

Economic Institutions and Growth Nexus: The Role of Governance and Democratic Institutions—Evidence from Time Varying Parameters’ (TVPs) Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (4I-II) ◽  
pp. 675-688
Author(s):  
Ghulam Murtaza ◽  
Muhammad Zahir Faridi
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Economic Institutions ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Democratic Institutions ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Rolling Window

The present study has investigated the channels through which the linkage between economic institutions and growth is gauged, by addressing the main hypothesis of the study that whether quality of governance and democratic institutions set a stage for economic institutions to promote the long-term growth process in Pakistan. To test the hypothesis empirically, our study models the dynamic relationship between growth and economic institutions in a time varying framework in order to capture institutional developments and structural changes occurred in the economy of Pakistan over the years. Study articulates that, along with some customary specifics, the quality of government and democracy are the substantial factors that affect institutional quality and ultimately cause to promote growth in Pakistan. JEL Classification: O40; P16; C14; H10 Keywords: Economic Institutions, Growth, Governance and Democracy, Rolling Window Two-stage Least Squares, Pakistan

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Its Impact on the Indian Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292198912
Author(s):  
Vikas Barbate ◽  
Rajesh N. Gade ◽  
Shirish S. Raibagkar
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Windfall Gain ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Silver Lining

Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a steep fall in the crude oil prices from around $70 per barrel to a record 18 years low of $22 per barrel. This windfall gain can, to some extent, offset the direct losses due to COVID-19. At the same time, dreams like a $5 trillion economy no longer look even a remote possibility. This article takes stock of the likely impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. A decision-tree approach has been adopted for doing the projections.

Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant

2020 ◽  
Vol 85 ◽  
pp. 104328 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robinson Kruse ◽  
Christoph Wegener
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Time Varying
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