Calculating Lifetime Expected Loss for IFRS 9: Which Formula is Correct?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Engelmann
Keyword(s):  
Expected Loss ◽  
Ifrs 9

How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Investment Grade

PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

IFRS 9 Expected Loss: A Model Proposal for Estimating the Probability of Default for Non-Rated Companies

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Delgado-Vaquero ◽  
José Morales-Díaz ◽  
Constancio Zamora-Ramírez
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Default ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Ifrs 9

scholarly journals Gevolgen van invoering IFRS 9: Europese banken onder de loep

2017 ◽  
Vol 91 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 421-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Job Huttenhuis ◽  
Ralph ter Hoeven
Keyword(s):  
Expected Loss ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Hedge Accounting ◽  
Ifrs 9

Banken dienen volgens IAS 8 zowel in hun jaarrekening als halfjaarberichten inzicht te geven in de impact van IFRS 9. Op basis van een analyse van jaarrekeningen over 2016 van 50 Europese banken komen we tot de conclusie dat in beperkte mate kwantitatieve informatie over de impact van IFRS 9 op de classificatie van financiële activa, de hoogte van voorzieningen alsmede het bankkapitaal is opgenomen. De verstrekte informatie door banken laat zien dat IFRS 9 naar verwachting leidt tot een toename van de voorzieningen, hetgeen in lijn is met de verwachting bij overgang naar een expected loss-model. Banken hebben in alle gevallen een IFRS 9-toelichting in hun jaarrekening opgenomen en zijn hierin vaak concreet over de toepassing van hedge accounting. Geen enkele bank in onze populatie heeft de keuze gemaakt IFRS 9 voor 1 januari 2018 volledig toe te passen. In de onderzochte halfjaarberichten over de eerste helft van 2017 is door meer banken concrete informatie over de impact van IFRS 9 opgenomen dan in de jaarrekeningen over 2016. De geschatte negatieve impact van IFRS 9 op voorzieningen en bankkapitaal is afgenomen, waarschijnlijk als gevolg van verbeterde economische omstandigheden per 30 juni 2017. In de halfjaarberichten 2017 wordt de impact van IFRS 9 op het bankkapitaal vaker gekwantificeerd dan de impact op de voorzieningen. Een verklaringsgrond hiervoor kan worden gevonden in het grote belang dat aan het bankkapitaal wordt toegekend alsook in de locatie van de toelichting (bestuursverslag).

Calculating lifetime expected loss for IFRS 9: which formula is measuring what?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Engelmann
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mathematical Proofs ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe purpose of this article is to derive formulas for lifetime expected credit loss of loans that are required for the calculation of loan loss reserves under IFRS 9. This is done both for fixed-rate and floating rate loans under different assumptions on LGD modeling, prepayment, and discount rates.Design/methodology/approachThis study provides exact formulas for lifetime expected credit loss derived analytically together with the mathematical proofs of each expression.FindingsThis articles shows that the formula most commonly applied in the literature for calculating lifetime expected credit loss is inconsistent with measuring expected loss based on expected discounted cash flows. Formulas based on discounted cash flows always lead to more conservative numbers.Practical implicationsFor banks reporting under IFRS 9, the implication of this research is a better understanding of the different approaches used for computing lifetime expected loss, how they are connected, and what assumptions are underlying each approach. This may lead to corrections in existing frameworks to make applications of risk management systems more consistent.Originality/valueWhile there is a lot of literature explaining IFRS 9 and evaluating its impact, none of the existing research has systematically analyzed the calculation of lifetime expected credit loss for this purpose and how the formula changes under different modeling assumptions. This gap is filled by this study.

The Measurement of Performance in Probabilistic Diagnosis IV. Utility Considerations in Therapeutics and Prognostics

1981 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 80-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. F. Habbema ◽  
J. Hilden
Keyword(s):  
Decision Theory ◽  
Figure Of Merit ◽  
Acute Abdominal Pain ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Patient Benefit ◽  
Evaluation Approach ◽  
Average Loss ◽  
Actual Decision ◽  
Probabilistic Diagnosis

It is argued that it is preferable to evaluate probabilistic diagnosis systems in terms of utility (patient benefit) or loss (negative benefit). We have adopted the provisional strategy of scoring performance as if the system were the actual decision-maker (not just an aid to him) and argue that a rational figure of merit is given by the average loss which patients would incur by having the system decide on treatment, the treatment being selected according to the minimum expected loss principle of decision theory.A similar approach is taken to the problem of evaluating probabilistic prognoses, but the fundamental differences between treatment selection skill and prognostic skill and their implications for the assessment of such skills are stressed. The necessary elements of decision theory are explained by means of simple examples mainly taken from the acute abdomen, and the proposed evaluation tools are applied to Acute Abdominal Pain data analysed in our previous papers by other (not decision-theoretic) means. The main difficulty of the decision theory approach, viz. that of obtaining good medical utility values upon which the analysis can be based, receives due attention, and the evaluation approach is extended to cover more realistic situations in which utility or loss values vary from patient to patient.

Business Model Literature Overview

2014 ◽  
pp. 79-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ales Novak
Keyword(s):  
Business Model ◽  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Business Logic ◽  
Literature Overview ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Definition Of

The term ?business model' has recently attracted increased attention in the context of financial reporting and was formally introduced into the IFRS literature when IFRS 9 Financial Instruments was published in November 2009. However, IFRS 9 did not fully define the term ‘business model'. Furthermore, the literature on business models is quite diverse. It has been conducted in largely isolated fashion; therefore, no generally accepted definition of ?business model' has emerged. Therefore, a better understanding of the notion itself should be developed before further investigating its potential role within financial reporting. The aim of this paper is to highlight some of the perceived key themes and to identify other bases for grouping/organizing the literature based on business models. The contributions this paper makes to the literature are twofold: first, it complements previous review papers on business models; second, it contains a clear position on the distinction between the notions of the business model and strategy, which many authors identify as a key element in better explaining and communicating the notion of the business model. In this author's opinion, the term ‘strategy' is a dynamic and forward-looking notion, a sort of directional roadmap for future courses of action, whereas, ‘business model' is a more static notion, reflecting the conceptualisation of the company's underlying core business logic. The conclusion contains the author's thoughts on the role of the business model in financial reporting.

Zum inkonsistenten Inhalt des Geschäftsmodellbegriffs in IFRS 9

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-223
Author(s):  
Felix Krauß
Keyword(s):  
Ifrs 9

Zusammenfassung Obwohl innerhalb der IFRS keine explizite Begriffsdefinition des Geschäftsmodells erfolgt, ist dennoch eine einheitliche Verwendung des Terms in IFRS 9 grundsätzlich wünschenswert. Allerdings lässt sich auf Grundlage der Kategorisierungsvorschriften auf der einen und der Umgliederungsvorschriften auf der anderen Seite ein jeweils abweichender Inhalt des Geschäftsmodellbegriffs ableiten, was die allgemein mit dem Begriff verbundenen Verständnisprobleme befördert. Dem kommt auch eine aufsichtsrechtliche Relevanz dahingehend zu, als dass die aufsichtsrechtliche Anlage- bzw. Handelsbuchzuordnung grundsätzlich konsistent zum Geschäftsmodell des IFRS 9 erfolgen sollte. Ein einheitlicher Begriffsinhalt wäre dabei bereits durch eine nur geringfügige, klarstellende Änderung des Standards zu erreichen.

IFRS 9: Estimation of expected credit losses and their recognition in financial reporting

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 364-378
Author(s):  
T.B. Kuvaldina ◽  
◽  
E.V. Lobachev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Credit Losses
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