scholarly journals Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hirokuni Iiboshi ◽  
Mototsugu Shintani ◽  
Kozo Ueda
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Keynesian Model

A NOTE ON THE SLOPE OF THE AGGREGATE DEMAND CURVE AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Yangyang Ji ◽  
Wei Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Demand Curve ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Fiscal Multiplier ◽  
Keynesian Model

This paper analyzes a regime-switching New Keynesian model to understand what happens to the aggregate economy when the nominal interest rate hits the zero lower bound (ZLB). Contrary to the literature, our model predicts that the aggregate demand curve is not always upward sloping when the ZLB binds. Instead, it depends on expectations. If the expected duration of the ZLB is short but consistent with expectations surveys, the AD curve can be downward sloping. In that case, the fiscal multiplier is moderate and supply-side reforms are expansionary. These results complement existing findings in the literature.

scholarly journals In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. e1028-e1053
Author(s):  
Piotr Ciżkowicz ◽  
Andrzej Rzońca ◽  
Andrzej Torój
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Slow Potential ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
Potential Output Growth

Abstract Using a standard New Keynesian model, we show that moderate side effects of zero lower bound (ZLB) policy suffice for positive lower bound (PLB) policy to pay off in terms of welfare, especially when central banks fail to commit. For given side effects of the ZLB, as the shock that makes the ZLB bind becomes larger and more persistent, the dominance of PLB policy over ZLB policy becomes more likely. The findings hold for flexible and rigid economies with both fast and slow potential output growth and low and high inflation targets.

scholarly journals Resolving New Keynesian Anomalies with Wealth in the Utility Function

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Michaillat ◽  
Emmanuel Saez
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Utility Function ◽  
Social Status ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Marginal Utility ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Low Levels

At the zero lower bound, the New Keynesian model predicts that output and inflation collapse to implausibly low levels, and that government spending and forward guidance have implausibly large effects. To resolve these anomalies, we introduce wealth into the utility function; the justification is that wealth is a marker of social status, and people value status. Since people partly save to accrue social status, the Euler equation is modified. As a result, when the marginal utility of wealth is sufficiently large, the dynamical system representing the zero-lower-bound equilibrium transforms from a saddle to a source—which resolves all the anomalies.

scholarly journals Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 310-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Benigno ◽  
Gauti B. Eggertsson ◽  
Federica Romei
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Natural Rate ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Natural Rate Of Interest ◽  
Standard Framework

This paper proposes a postcrisis New Keynesian model that incorporates agent heterogeneity in borrowing and lending with a minimum set of assumptions. Unlike the standard framework, this model makes the natural rate of interest endogenous and dependent on macroeconomic policy. The main application is to study optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Such policy succeeds in raising the natural rate of interest by creating an environment that speeds up deleveraging and thus endogenously shortens the crisis and the duration of binding ZLB. Inflation should be front-loaded and should overshoot its long-term target during the ZLB episode. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E43, E52)

scholarly journals What to Expect from the Lower Bound on Interest Rates: Evidence from Derivatives Prices

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (8) ◽  
pp. 2473-2505
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Mertens ◽  
John C. Williams
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Two Equilibria

This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. In a New Keynesian model with a lower bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in the “target equilibrium,” whereas policy is mostly constrained in the “liquidity trap equilibrium.” Using options data on interest rates and inflation, we find forecast densities consistent with the target equilibrium and find no evidence in favor of the liquidity trap equilibrium. The lower bound has a sizable effect on the distribution of interest rates, but its impact on inflation is relatively modest. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E43, E52, G13)

A NOTE ON NOMINAL GDP TARGETING AND THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 2138-2157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto M. Billi
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Supply And Demand Shocks ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Nominal Interest Rates

I compare nominal gross domestic product (GDP) level targeting with strict price level targeting in a small New Keynesian model, with the central bank operating under optimal discretion and facing a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates. I show that, if the economy is only buffeted by purely temporary shocks to inflation, nominal GDP level targeting may be preferable because it requires the burden of the shocks to be shared by prices and output. However, in the presence of persistent supply and demand shocks, strict price level targeting may be superior because it induces greater policy inertia and improves the tradeoffs faced by the central bank. During lower bound episodes, somewhat paradoxically, nominal GDP level targeting leads to larger falls in nominal GDP.

scholarly journals The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 679-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Ascari ◽  
Argia M. Sbordone
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Inflation Targets

Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E52, E58)

Endogenous Technological Change and the New Keynesian Model

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Toshihiro Okada
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bound ◽  
Technological Change ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Endogenous Technological Change ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Supply Shock ◽  
News Shock ◽  
Endogenous Technology

This paper develops and estimates a new Keynesian (NK) model with endogenous technology. It shows that introducing endogenous technology can solve three important puzzles faced by conventional NK models: the “inflation persistence”, “disinflationary news shock”, and “zero lower bound (ZLB) supply shock” puzzles. First, the observed persistence in inflation is explained without relying on the conventional NK models' additional assumptions, e.g., backward price indexation. Second, it explains the observed disinflationary effect of a news shock. Third, the model avoids the conventional NK models' paradoxical, empirically inconsistent prediction that a negative supply shock is expansionary at the ZLB on interest rates.

scholarly journals INFORMATION VALUE OF THE INTEREST RATE AND THE ZERO LOWER BOUND

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (7) ◽  
pp. 1758-1784
Author(s):  
Sang Seok Lee
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Information Structure ◽  
Information Value ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Cost

Why is a zero lower bound episode long-lasting and disruptive? This paper proposes the interruption of information flow from the central bank’s interest rate decision to the private sector as a channel by which the destabilizing effect of the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate is amplified. This mechanism is incorporated into the new Keynesian model by modifying its information structure. This paper shows that the information loss at the zero lower bound can increase (a) the duration of the zero lower bound episodes and (b) the size of deflation and output gap loss. The result in this paper demonstrates that enhanced information sharing by the central bank about the state of the economy can be effective at alleviating the cost of the zero lower bound.

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