Keynes (Boole), Knight, (and Ellsberg) Against Ramsey, De Finetti, and Savage: It Had Nothing to Do with 'Radical Uncertainty', But Involved the Issue of Inexact, Indeterminate, Imprecise, Interval Valued (Weak Evidence) Probability Versus Exact, Determinate, Precise (Strong Evidence) Mathematical Probability

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Emmett Brady
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Mathematical Probability ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Radical Uncertainty ◽  
De Finetti ◽  
Interval Valued

Convertible local currency and trust: ‘It’s Not You, It’s Me’ – A field experiment in the French Basque Country

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-120
Author(s):  
Hayyan Alia ◽  
Eli Spiegelman
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Experimental Economics ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Trust Game ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Economics Literature ◽  
Community Currencies ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Community Currency

We present a field experiment investigating the mechanism by which community currencies enhance trust. Our question is the following: do I trust more when using a community currency because I am a trusting-type person or because I think that you are trustworthy? We call the former preference-based trust; while the latter is belief-based trust. We apply a modification of the standard trust game from the experimental economics literature to disentangle these mechanisms. Player A has to choose whether or not to trust player B, and player B can either reciprocate that trust or not. Our innovation is in experimentally separating the currency in which the game is played ( effective currency), from the currency preferred by the participant ( preferred currency). If the mechanism is preference-based, then preferred currency will determine trust more than effective; if it is belief-based, then the effective currency will be determinant. We find strong evidence of the preference-based mechanism of community currencies on trust, and only weak evidence of the belief-based mechanism.

scholarly journals Strong evidence for protein epistasis, weak evidence against it

2014 ◽  
Vol 111 (15) ◽  
pp. E1450-E1450 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. D. Pollock ◽  
R. A. Goldstein
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Weak Evidence

scholarly journals A review of the primary nutritional and environmental factors associated with Parkinson’s disease

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eleanor Considine ◽  
Lucy Yin ◽  
Mitra Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Parkinson’S Disease ◽  
Parkinson's Disease ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Neuroprotective Effect ◽  
Neuroprotective Effects ◽  
Nutritional Factors ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
System Disorder

Parkinson’s disease is a progressive nervous system disorder that produces both motor and nonmotor symptoms. This literature review begins by examining evidence for several possible origins for the disease:  does it begin in the brain and progress to the gut, or vice versa, or does it begin in both places concurrently?  Next, we examine several environmental factors that have been shown to either increase or decrease risk of Parkinson’s disease. These are primarily nutritional factors, specifically caffeine, nicotine, and dairy products. Studies in both animals and humans provide weak evidence that increased consumption of low fat dairy is associated with an increased risk of Parkinson’s disease development. Additionally, there is strong evidence that nicotine has a neuroprotective effect which also lowers the risk.  Finally, there is similarly strong evidence that caffeine exerts neuroprotective effects which lower the overall risk of developing Parkinson’s disease.

Wealth Effects Of Housing Market And Stock Market On Outbound Tourism In Singapore

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chew Ging Lee
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Public Housing ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Wealth Effect ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Housing Wealth ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Housing Wealth Effect ◽  
The Government

This research note investigates the effects of stock market wealth and housing wealth on the demand for international tourism by the residents of Singapore while controlling for other important determinants for outbound tourism. The empirical results suggest that there are weak evidence to support the presence of stock market wealth effect and strong evidence to support the presence of housing wealth effect on outbound tourism. Weak evidence of stock market wealth effect is observed because the model derived from Akaike Information Criterion does not find significant effect of stock market wealth, but the model derived from Schwartz Criterion shows that positive stock market wealth effect is present. Strong evidence of housing wealth effect is observed because models estimated with both criteria show that housing wealth has negative effect on such consumption. The conclusion explains why the importance of public housing and the government intervention in public housing in Singapore lead to such negative housing wealth effect.

scholarly journals Weak Evidence of Regeneration Habitat but Strong Evidence of Regeneration Niche for a Leguminous Shrub

PLoS ONE ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. e0130886 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Delerue ◽  
Maya Gonzalez ◽  
Richard Michalet ◽  
Sylvain Pellerin ◽  
Laurent Augusto
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Regeneration Niche ◽  
Weak Evidence

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Level of Evidence Supporting the Recommendations Constituting the American Academy of Dermatology Clinical Practice Guidelines: Cross-Sectional Analysis (Preprint)

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Cook ◽  
Ryan Ottwell ◽  
Taylor Rogers ◽  
Jake Checketts ◽  
Sanjeev Musuvathy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
American Academy ◽  
Clinical Practice Guidelines ◽  
Practice Guidelines ◽  
Clinical Practice Guideline ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Practice Guideline ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Weak Evidence

BACKGROUND Clinical practice guidelines are evidence-based recommendations used by physicians to improve patient care. These guidelines provide the physician with an assessment of the benefits and harms of a treatment and its alternatives. Therefore, it is essential that the clinical practice guidelines be based on the strongest available evidence. Numerous studies in a variety of different fields of medicine have demonstrated that recommendations supported by weak evidence are a common theme in clinical practice guidelines. A clinical guideline based solely on weak evidence has the capability to reduce the quality of care provided by physicians. OBJECTIVE Our primary objective is to evaluate the levels of evidence supporting the recommendations constituting the American Academy of Dermatology clinical practice guidelines. METHODS Using a cross-sectional study design, authors SM and RO located all current clinical practice guidelines on the American Academy of Dermatology website on June 10, 2017, and December 11, 2019. Each recommendation and its corresponding evidence rating were extracted in a duplicate and blinded fashion. A consensus meeting was planned a priori to resolve disagreements in extractions or stratifications. RESULTS In total, 6 clinical guidelines and their subsections were screened and 899 recommendations were identified. Our final data set included 841 recommendations, as 58 recommendations contained no level of evidence and were excluded from calculations. Many recommendations were supported by a moderate level of evidence and therefore received a B rating (346/841, 41.1%). Roughly one-third of the recommendations were supported by a strong level of evidence and were given an A rating (n=307, 36.5%). The clinical practice guideline with the highest overall strength of evidence was regarding the treatment of acne, which had 17 of 35 (48.6%) recommendations supported by strong evidence and only 2 (5.7%) supported by weak evidence. The clinical practice guideline with the fewest recommendations supported by strong evidence was melanoma (13/63, 20.6%). CONCLUSIONS Clinical practice guidelines that lack strong supporting evidence could negatively affect patient care, and dermatologists should be mindful that not all recommendations are supported by the strongest level of evidence. An increased quantity of quality research needs to be performed in the field of dermatology to improve the evidence supporting the American Academy of Dermatology clinical practice guidelines.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the Level of Evidence Supporting the Recommendations Constituting the American Academy of Dermatology Clinical Practice Guidelines: Cross-Sectional Analysis

10.2196/17370 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. e17370
Author(s):  
Courtney Cook ◽  
Ryan Ottwell ◽  
Taylor Rogers ◽  
Jake Checketts ◽  
Sanjeev Musuvathy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
American Academy ◽  
Clinical Practice Guidelines ◽  
Practice Guidelines ◽  
Clinical Practice Guideline ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Practice Guideline ◽  
Level Of Evidence ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Weak Evidence

Background Clinical practice guidelines are evidence-based recommendations used by physicians to improve patient care. These guidelines provide the physician with an assessment of the benefits and harms of a treatment and its alternatives. Therefore, it is essential that the clinical practice guidelines be based on the strongest available evidence. Numerous studies in a variety of different fields of medicine have demonstrated that recommendations supported by weak evidence are a common theme in clinical practice guidelines. A clinical guideline based solely on weak evidence has the capability to reduce the quality of care provided by physicians. Objective Our primary objective is to evaluate the levels of evidence supporting the recommendations constituting the American Academy of Dermatology clinical practice guidelines. Methods Using a cross-sectional study design, authors SM and RO located all current clinical practice guidelines on the American Academy of Dermatology website on June 10, 2017, and December 11, 2019. Each recommendation and its corresponding evidence rating were extracted in a duplicate and blinded fashion. A consensus meeting was planned a priori to resolve disagreements in extractions or stratifications. Results In total, 6 clinical guidelines and their subsections were screened and 899 recommendations were identified. Our final data set included 841 recommendations, as 58 recommendations contained no level of evidence and were excluded from calculations. Many recommendations were supported by a moderate level of evidence and therefore received a B rating (346/841, 41.1%). Roughly one-third of the recommendations were supported by a strong level of evidence and were given an A rating (n=307, 36.5%). The clinical practice guideline with the highest overall strength of evidence was regarding the treatment of acne, which had 17 of 35 (48.6%) recommendations supported by strong evidence and only 2 (5.7%) supported by weak evidence. The clinical practice guideline with the fewest recommendations supported by strong evidence was melanoma (13/63, 20.6%). Conclusions Clinical practice guidelines that lack strong supporting evidence could negatively affect patient care, and dermatologists should be mindful that not all recommendations are supported by the strongest level of evidence. An increased quantity of quality research needs to be performed in the field of dermatology to improve the evidence supporting the American Academy of Dermatology clinical practice guidelines.

scholarly journals The Cotton Acreage Effects of Boll Weevil Eradication: A County-Level Analysis

1999 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 475-497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher F. Dumas ◽  
Rachael E. Goodhue
Keyword(s):  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Maintenance Phase ◽  
Boll Weevil ◽  
County Level ◽  
Recent Increase ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Net Benefits ◽  
Level Analysis

AbstractThe success of the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWE) Program is believed to be one factor underlying the recent increase in cotton acreage in the Southeast. We find weak evidence that the initial, eradication phase of the BWE program decreases cotton acreage, and strong evidence that the second, maintenance phase of the program increases acreage. The full benefits associated with a BWE program may not become apparent until acreage adjustments occur, four to five years after program initiation. Our results indicate that for a representative sample county neglecting acreage effects may lead to underestimation of BWE program net benefits by 9 percent-12 percent.

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