A Tiger by the Tail: Estimating the UK Mortgage Market Vulnerabilities from Loan-Level Data

Recent empirical studies have shown that during the financial crisis of 2007–2008, banks that were more heavily exposed to liquidity risk contracted their supply of credit more sharply. I contribute to the identification of this effect by relying on the use of micro-level data on U.S. mortgage loan applications, which allows me to identify liquidity risk as an important determinant of the contraction of credit in the mortgage market but as separate from the precipitous fall in credit demand, disruptions in the securitization and subprime markets, shifts in asset risk, and changing risk aversion among loan officers.

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Impaired Capital Reallocation and Productivity

National Institute Economic Review ◽

10.1177/002795011422800104 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 228 ◽

pp. R35-R48 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

Alina Barnett ◽

Ben Broadbent ◽

Adrian Chiu ◽

Jeremy Franklin ◽

Helen Miller

Keyword(s):

Labour Productivity ◽

Productivity Loss ◽

Capital Allocation ◽

Rates Of Return ◽

Firm Level ◽

Capital Movements ◽

Level Data ◽

Capital Reallocation ◽

The Uk ◽

The Relationship

The level of private sector labour productivity has been particularly weak since the start of the crisis. In this paper we explore whether impairment to capital reallocation has been contributing to this weakness. The recent increase in the dispersion of output, prices and rates of return across firms and sectors is stark, and suggests that resources have had incentives to move. Efficient allocation requires that capital moves to firms and sectors where rates of return are relatively high. And the change in capital levels across sectors has been particularly low, suggesting there has been an unusually slow process of capital reallocation since 2008 compared to previous UK recessions and other banking crises. This result is also apparent within sectors. We use a simple and general model to show that increased price dispersion can be a consequence of frictions to efficient capital allocation. And the size of this dispersion can usefully inform us about the size of the associated output and productivity loss. We then find that – using firm level data – the relationship between rates of return and subsequent capital movements has changed since the financial crisis. Overall, our results suggest that impaired capital reallocation across the UK economy is likely to have been one factor contributing to the recent weakness in productivity growth.

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‘We All Live in a Robbie Fowler House’: The Geographies of the Buy to Let Market in the UK

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations ◽

10.1111/j.1467-856x.2009.00381.x ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 438-460 ◽

Cited By ~ 48

Author(s):

Andrew Leyshon ◽

Shaun French

Keyword(s):

Private Sector ◽

Financial Institutions ◽

Mortgage Lending ◽

Mortgage Market ◽

Capital Gains ◽

Financial Security ◽

Financial Responsibility ◽

Income Stream ◽

The Uk

The buy to let market, produced through the re-regulation of the private rented market in the late 1980s and the promotion of a new mortgage product by the Association of Residential Letting Agents and private sector lenders in the 1990s, accounted for 12 per cent of all UK mortgage lending by 2007. Buy to let is popularly understood as a vehicle for speculative investment and as a means for securing long-term financial security through capital gains via property, and it represents an important aspect of financialisation, helping to call forth new investor subjectivities, which promulgate individualised forms of financial responsibility. Buy to let was also a profitable income stream for financial institutions in the UK which outperformed the mainstream mortgage market until problems in this market became apparent. This article reports on research carried out on the buy to let market and draws attention to the highly geographical nature of the market, which has distinctive regional and urban geographies. These geographies help to explain the differing fortunes of the buy to let market.

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Multivariate analysis reveals shared genetic architecture of brain morphology and human behavior

Communications Biology ◽

10.1038/s42003-021-02712-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Ronald de Vlaming ◽

Eric A. W. Slob ◽

Philip R. Jansen ◽

Alain Dagher ◽

Philipp D. Koellinger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Genetic Correlation ◽

Gray Matter Volume ◽

Genetic Correlations ◽

Brain Morphology ◽

Computationally Efficient ◽

Individual Level ◽

Level Data ◽

The Uk ◽

And Behavior ◽

The Brain

AbstractHuman variation in brain morphology and behavior are related and highly heritable. Yet, it is largely unknown to what extent specific features of brain morphology and behavior are genetically related. Here, we introduce a computationally efficient approach for multivariate genomic-relatedness-based restricted maximum likelihood (MGREML) to estimate the genetic correlation between a large number of phenotypes simultaneously. Using individual-level data (N = 20,190) from the UK Biobank, we provide estimates of the heritability of gray-matter volume in 74 regions of interest (ROIs) in the brain and we map genetic correlations between these ROIs and health-relevant behavioral outcomes, including intelligence. We find four genetically distinct clusters in the brain that are aligned with standard anatomical subdivision in neuroscience. Behavioral traits have distinct genetic correlations with brain morphology which suggests trait-specific relevance of ROIs. These empirical results illustrate how MGREML can be used to estimate internally consistent and high-dimensional genetic correlation matrices in large datasets.

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Economic Mechanism and Cash Flows Modeling for Reverse Mortgage

Finance Theory and Practice ◽

10.26794/2587-5671-2018-22-6-106-120 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 22 (6) ◽

pp. 106-120

Author(s):

E. V. Kuz’mina ◽

A. A. Yanin

Keyword(s):

Real Estate ◽

Senior Citizens ◽

Market Equilibrium ◽

Cash Flows ◽

Mortgage Lending ◽

Mortgage Market ◽

Reverse Mortgage ◽

Economic Mechanism ◽

Expected Benefits ◽

The Uk

The research is devoted to the economic mechanism of reverse mortgage — a credit product aimed at improving the standard of living of senior citizens, owners of real estate. The idea of the reverse mortgage has been given, as well as the mechanisms of use of real estate owned by senior citizens in order to provide them with additional income. The examples of reverse mortgage in the uS, the uK, Spain and Australia have been given. The authors have also described the methods of reverse mortgage lending in Russia. Based on the analysis of international experience, the economic expediency of investing in this credit tool has been assessed. Considering consumer demand factor, it is possible to calculate the equilibrium rate and, therefore, to find the coordinates of the market equilibrium point. The authors have developed a mathematical model of reverse mortgage for the case of lifetime annuity payments. This model allows to calculate the expected benefits of borrowers and lenders. There have been done (and implemented) two notes that significantly distinguish reverse mortgage modeling from other loan products: 1) a lifetime reverse mortgage does not have a fixed expiration date; 2) when taking a loan of this type, borrowers consider not only consumption, but also accumulation of inheritance. The model allows to calculate the position of break-even points and market equilibrium (relative to the interest rate). This will help economically interested agents to assess the potential of the reverse mortgage market in Russia.

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Longitudinal immune profiling reveals distinct features of COVID-19 pathogenesis

10.1101/2020.06.13.20127605 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Elizabeth R. Mann ◽

Madhvi Menon ◽

Sean Blandin Knight ◽

Joanne E. Konkel ◽

Christopher Jagger ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Immune Response ◽

Longitudinal Analysis ◽

Disease Process ◽

Added Value ◽

Cross Sectional ◽

Level Data ◽

Hospitalised Patients ◽

Immune Alterations ◽

The Uk ◽

Immune Profiling

AbstractBackgroundThe pathogenesis of COVID-19, caused by a novel strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), involves a complex host-virus interaction and is characterised by an exaggerated immune response, the specific components of which are poorly understood. Here we report the outcome of a longitudinal immune profiling study in hospitalised patients during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and show the relationship between immune responses and severity of the clinical presentation.MethodsThe Coronavirus Immune Response and Clinical Outcomes (CIRCO) study was conducted at four hospitals in Greater Manchester. Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, recruited as close to admission as possible, provided peripheral blood samples at enrolment and sequentially thereafter. Fresh samples were assessed for immune cells and proteins in whole blood and serum. Some samples were also stimulated for 3 hours with LPS and analysed for intracellular proteins. Results were stratified based on patient-level data including severity of symptoms and date of reported symptom onset.FindingsLongitudinal analysis showed a very high neutrophil to T cell ratio and abnormal activation of monocytes in the blood, which displayed high levels of the cell cycle marker, Ki67 and low COX-2. These properties all reverted in patient with good outcome. Unexpectedly, multiple aspects of inflammation were diminished as patients progressed in severity and time, even in ITU patients not recovering.InterpretationThis is the first detailed longitudinal analysis of COVID-19 patients of varying severity and outcome, revealing common features and aspects that track with severity. Patients destined for a severe outcome can be identified at admission when still displaying mild-moderate symptoms. We provide clues concerning pathogenesis that should influence clinical trials and therapeutics. Targeting pathways involved in neutrophil and monocyte release from the bone marrow should be tested in patients with COVID-19.FundingThe Kennedy Trust for Rheumatology Research, The Wellcome Trust, The Royal Society, The BBSRC, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centres (BRC).Research in contextEvidence before this studyAnalysis of the literature before the study via pubmed and bioRxiv searches using the terms COVID-19, SARS-CoV2, immune and inflammation (with the last search performed on 27th April 2020) showed evidence of an overactive immune response in a handful of studies in cross-sectional analyses all done at a single time point.Added value of this studyTo determine the role of the immune response in a disease process, it is necessary to correlate immune activity with clinical parameters dynamically. In this study patients presented to hospital at different stages of disease so we took samples at different time-points to provide an accurate picture of the relevant pathobiology. In order to avoid loss of large components of the immune system due to the processes of storage, longitudinal samples were interrogated in real time to reveal the full immune alterations in COVID-19.Implications of all the available evidenceRespiratory viruses continue to cause devastating global disease. The finding of altered myelopoiesis, with excess neutrophils and altered monocyte function, as dominant features in our study provides an incentive for clinical testing of therapeutics that specifically target this pathobiology. Given that inflammation is greatest prior to admission to intensive care, trials of specific immune-modulating therapies should be considered earlier in admission. Future studies of COVID-19 mechanisms should place more emphasis on longitudinal analyses since disease changes dramatically over time.

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