Age Structure and Demographic Dividends: How Much Do Households Contribute to China's Economic Growth?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingsong Yao ◽  
Guoqing Zhao ◽  
Zijun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Age Structure

The Impact of the Transformation of Age Structure on Economic Growth

2016 ◽  
Vol 04 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650031 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen ZHAO ◽  
Xuyang ZHU
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Participation Rate ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Intergenerational Redistribution ◽  
Labor Remuneration ◽  
The Impact

The impact of the transformation of the age structure of the population on economic growth is governed by a strict law. In 12 economies under the authors’ observation, the contribution from the rejuvenation of the population to economic growth is basically 6% — the Chinese Mainland makes a contribution of 6.3%. The rejuvenation of the population has stimulated economic growth, but its contribution is very small compared with the contributions from capital accumulation and technological progress. According to international experience, in the case of addressing the transformation of the age structure of the population, relying on intergenerational redistribution will exert a great negative economic impact, while reducing the intensity of that redistribution and relying on market mechanisms to adjust the level of labor remuneration can increase the employment rate and the labor participation rate, thus raising the economic growth rate to the greatest extent.

scholarly journals Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (26) ◽  
pp. 12798-12803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolfgang Lutz ◽  
Jesus Crespo Cuaresma ◽  
Endale Kebede ◽  
Alexia Prskawetz ◽  
Warren C. Sanderson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Fertility Decline ◽  
Demographic Dividend ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Population Policies ◽  
Dependency Ratios ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Negative Impacts

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980–2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

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