Did the Exchange Rate Floor Prevent Deflation in the Czech Republic?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Caselli
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Exchange Rate

scholarly journals Frontiers of Monetary Policymaking: Adding the Exchange Rate as a Tool to Combat Deflationary Risks in the Czech Republic

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (74) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alichi ◽  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Joshua Felman ◽  
Irene Feng ◽  
Charles Freedman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The persistence of moderate inflation in the czech republic and the czk crisis of may 1997

1999 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef C. Brada ◽  
Ali M. Kutan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Speculative Attack ◽  
Rate Policy

The paper deals with the exchange rate policy being implemented in combination with the mix of monetary and fiscal measures prior to the speculative attack on the CZK in 1997. The fixed nominal exchange rate may have been retained for too long and the monetary and fiscal policies were inappropriate. It explains the relation between Czech inflation, exchange rate and macroeconomic policies until the crisis of May 1997. <P>While the Czech Republic weathered its currency crisis much better than did most other emerging economies, with the worst damage being a USD 2 billion loss of foreign reserves, the crisis failed to resolve all of the fundamental problems. It gives also some explanations for the persistence of inflation at a level around 10 % until mid-1998.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Correlation and Forecast of CZK to EUR in the Unstable Global World

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 ◽  
pp. 09007
Author(s):  
Eva Kalinová ◽  
Zuzana Rowland
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Future Development ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Significant Loss ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Foreign Companies ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Global World ◽  
Globalized World

Research background: In the Czech Republic, the CZK/EUR currency pair is the most observed one not only by Czech consumers but also by Czech and foreign companies. Not only the political situation in the world and the foreign investors but also other variables have a significant influence on the CZK. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to analyse the development of the CZK/EUR exchange rate, to perform a correlation analysis of the CZK/EUR currency pair and to forecast its future development in today’s unstable global world affected by the Coronavirus pandemics. Methods: In order to fulfil the aim of the paper, the data of the CZK/EUR currency pair from the beginning of the year 1999 to mid-June 2020 was used. The correlation analysis and the forecast of the future development of the exchange rate are performed by means of the, in today’s globalized world very promising, technology of artificial neural networks. Findings & Value added: The analysis and the forecast of the exchange rate development is based on the time series model taking the previous value of the exchange rate and its previous volatility into consideration. The strongest propulsion power for the development of the CZK/EUR exchange rate will be the market atmosphere on the world’s markets and the associated capital transfer between risk assets and safe havens. Provided, that the current situation settled down definitively and the economy returned back to its normal state, it is probable that the Czech koruna would gain some part of its significant loss back within a medium-term period.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Misalignment, and Risk of Recession in the Central and Eastern European Countries

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Victor Shevchuk ◽  
Roman Kopych
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Heritage Foundation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Eastern European Countries

This study is aimed at estimation of the exchange rate volatility and its impact on the business cycle fluctuations in four central and eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania). Exchange rate volatility is estimated with the EGARCH(1,1) model. It is found that exchange rate volatility is affected by the components of the Index of Economic Freedom from the Heritage Foundation, besides inflation and crisis developments. The empirical results using GMM estimation technique and comprehensive robustness checks suggest that exchange rate volatility reduces the risk of recession in the Czech Republic while the opposite effect is found for Hungary and Romania, with a neutrality for Poland. These findings continue to hold after controlling for the fiscal and monetary policy indicators. There is evidence that the RER undervaluation prevents sliding into a recession on a credible basis in Poland only, with a neutral stance for other countries. Except in Romania, higher levels of economic freedom is associated with worsening of the cyclical position of output. Among other results, stabilization policies in the recession imply fiscal tightening for the Czech Republic and Romania, higher money supply for the Czech Republic and Poland, and lower central bank reference rate for Hungary.

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