Stock Volatility and the Great Depression (Presentation Slides)

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo S. Cortes ◽  
Marc D. Weidenmier
2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 3544-3570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gustavo S Cortes ◽  
Marc D Weidenmier

Abstract Stock return volatility during the Great Depression has been labeled a “volatility puzzle” because the standard deviation of stock returns was 2 to 3 times higher than any other period in American history. We investigate this puzzle using a new series of building permits and leverage. Our results suggest that volatility in building permit growth and financial leverage largely explain the high level of stock volatility during the Great Depression. Markets factored in the possibility of a forthcoming economic disaster. Received September 30, 2017; editorial decision August 27, 2018 by Editor Philip E. Strahan. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online


2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel P. Mathy

There are a multitude of explanations for the depth and length of the Great Depression, of which uncertainty has been proposed as one possible explanation (Romer 1990). The 1930s not only saw extreme declines in output and prices, but stock volatility was also at record highs (Schwert 1989). This high stock volatility was generated by a series of discontinuous jumps as news about uncertainty arrived regularly during the 1930s, as shown by applying the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2006) test for jumps in a time-series. To provide a more historical narrative for these jumps, I outline some key events during the Great Depression that generated a sense of uncertainty for businesses and households which occurred contemporaneously to these extreme jumps. While much of the literature has placed Roosevelt's New Deal as a primary source of uncertainty, I do not find much evidence for this hypothesis, and instead find that banking crises, the breakdown of the gold standard, popular unrest and uncertainty related to the brewing war in Europe were primarily responsible for both jumps in returns and the uncertainty of the 1930s.


Author(s):  
Robert Wuthnow

For many Americans, the Middle West is a vast unknown. This book sets out to rectify this. It shows how the region has undergone extraordinary social transformations over the past half-century and proven itself surprisingly resilient in the face of such hardships as the Great Depression and the movement of residents to other parts of the country. It examines the heartland's reinvention throughout the decades and traces the social and economic factors that have helped it to survive and prosper. The book points to the critical strength of the region's social institutions established between 1870 and 1950—the market towns, farmsteads, one-room schoolhouses, townships, rural cooperatives, and manufacturing centers that have adapted with the changing times. It focuses on farmers' struggles to recover from the Great Depression well into the 1950s, the cultural redefinition and modernization of the region's image that occurred during the 1950s and 1960s, the growth of secondary and higher education, the decline of small towns, the redeployment of agribusiness, and the rapid expansion of edge cities. Drawing arguments from extensive interviews and evidence from the towns and counties of the Midwest, the book provides a unique perspective as both an objective observer and someone who grew up there. It offers an accessible look at the humble yet strong foundations that have allowed the region to endure undiminished.


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