Monitoring the Spanish Economy Through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs

Abstract Vector autoregressions (VARs) are richly parameterized time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, in small samples the rich parametrization of VAR models may come at the cost of overfitting the data, possibly leading to imprecise inference for key quantities of interest such as impulse response functions (IRFs). Bayesian VARs (BVARs) can use prior information to shrink the model parameters, potentially avoiding such overfitting. We provide a simulation study to compare, in terms of the frequentist properties of the estimates of the IRFs, useful strategies to select the informativeness of the prior. The study reveals that prior information may help to obtain more precise estimates of impulse response functions than classical OLS-estimated VARs and more accurate coverage rates of error bands in small samples. Strategies based on selecting the prior hyperparameters of the BVAR building on empirical or hierarchical modeling perform particularly well.

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Regional Industrialisation without National Growth: The Catalan Industrialization and the Growth of Spanish Economy (1830-1861)

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.563222 ◽

2003 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Joan R. Roses

Keyword(s):

Spanish Economy ◽

National Growth

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Politics First: The Economy after Franco

Government and Opposition ◽

10.1111/j.1477-7053.1976.tb00197.x ◽

1976 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 84-103 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Pedro Schwartz

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Success ◽

Spanish Economy ◽

Social Consensus ◽

Political Activities ◽

End Groups ◽

The Government ◽

Business Freedom

DURING THE LAST TWENTY YEARS, SPANIARDS HAVE BEEN LED TO concentrate their attention on economic affairs. ‘Enrichissez-vous’ has been the cry of the government to all classes. World prosperity, a modicum of business freedom, some well-timed reforms, a great. deal of enterprising spirit have spelt economic success and an end to persistent underdevelopment.The repression of political activities imposed a political and social consensus conducive to economic growth. However, the time is fast approaching when the enforced political moratorium will come to an end. Groups of varyin ideologies will contend for power. A backlog of problem will have to be attended to. In this article, while avoiding prophecy, I wish to evaluate the foreseeable effect of some of these variables on the Spanish economy after Franco disappears.

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A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX APPROACH TO APPRAISE SECTORS WITH A ZERO DEFICIT PUBLIC BUDGET

Revista Galega de Economía ◽

10.15304/rge.26.2.4327 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 26 (2) ◽

pp. 89-96

Author(s):

Patricia D. FUENTES SAGUAR ◽

Alfredo J. MAINAR CAUSAPÉ

Keyword(s):

Social Accounting Matrix ◽

Matrix Approach ◽

Public Budget ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Spanish Economy ◽

Environmental Implications ◽

Public Funds ◽

The Public ◽

Para Determinar ◽

Empirical Methodology

The aim of this paper is to develop a mixed empirical methodology to identify, in a zeropublic deficit framework, those sectors with the capability for growth of output andemployment, while also considering the environmental implications of the production ofeach sector. Their economic activities are ranked and selected in terms of their output,employment, and emissions multipliers. For an empirical analysis, a Social AccountingMatrix of the Spanish economy for 2008 is used. Among the findings, highlights the factthat consideration of the zero deficit in the public budget significantly alters theimportance of the sectors for economic development, turning out key choosing a criterionfor determining the allocation of public funds. El objetivo de este trabajo es el desarrollo de una metodología empírica mixta paraidentificar, en un marco de déficit público cero, los sectores que tienen la capacidad decrecimiento de la producción y el empleo, teniendo también en cuenta las implicacionesambientales de la producción de cada sector. Las actividades económicas se clasifican yseleccionan en función de sus multiplicadores de producción, empleo, y emisiones. Paraun análisis empírico, se utiliza una Matriz de Contabilidad Social de la economía españolapara 2008. Entre los resultados, destaca el hecho de que la consideración del déficit ceroen el presupuesto público altera significativamente la importancia de los sectores dedesarrollo económico, resultando clave la elección de un criterio para determinar laasignación de los fondos públicos.

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