International Transmission of Uncertainty Implicit in Stock Index Option Prices

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jussi Nikkinen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Index ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
International Transmission ◽  
Index Option

Do the Option Prices Forecast Spot Price? Evidence from the KOSPI 200 Index Option Market

2011 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 251-280
Author(s):  
Byungwook Choi
Keyword(s):  
Implied Volatility ◽  
Parametric Method ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
Risk Neutral ◽  
Index Option

This study investigates a forecasting power of volatility curvatures and risk neutral densities implicit in KOSPI 200 option prices by analyzing minute by minute historical index option intraday trading data from January of 2007 to January of 2011. We begin by estimating implied volatility functions and risk neutral price densities based on non-parametric method every minute and by calculating volatility curvature and skewness premium. We then compare the daily rate of return of the signal following trading strategy that we buy (sell) a stock index when the volatility curvature or skewness premium increases (decreases) with that of an intraday buy-and-hold strategy that we buy a stock index on 9:05AM and sell it on 2:50PM. We found that the rate of return of the signal following trading strategy was significantly higher than that of the intraday buy-and-hold strategy, which implies that the option prices have a strong forecasting power on the direction of stock market. Another finding is that the information contents of option prices disappear after three or four minutes.

The State Price Density Implied by Crude Oil Futures and Option Prices

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Christoffersen ◽  
Kris Jacobs ◽  
Xuhui (Nick) Pan
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Oil Futures ◽  
State Price ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Crude Oil Futures ◽  
State Price Density ◽  
Positive Return

Abstract Both large oil price increases and decreases are associated with deteriorating economic conditions. The projection of the state price density (SPD) onto oil returns estimated from oil futures and option prices displays a U-shaped pattern. Because investors assign high state prices to large negative and large positive oil returns, the U-shaped SPD may steepen in either tail when economic conditions deteriorate. The positive return region of the SPD is more closely related to economic conditions. The oil SPD contains information about economic conditions and future security returns that is distinct from the information in the stock index SPD.

scholarly journals Option-Based Estimation of the Price of Coskewness and Cokurtosis Risk

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Peter Christoffersen ◽  
Mathieu Fournier ◽  
Kris Jacobs ◽  
Mehdi Karoui
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Risk Premia ◽  
Factor Models ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Variance Risk Premium ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Variance Risk ◽  
Index Option

Abstract We show that the prices of risk for factors that are nonlinear in the market return can be obtained using index option prices. The price of coskewness risk corresponds to the market variance risk premium, and the price of cokurtosis risk corresponds to the market skewness risk premium. Option-based estimates of the prices of risk lead to reasonable values of the associated risk premia. An analysis of factor models with coskewness risk indicates that the new estimates of the price of risk improve the models’ performance compared with regression-based estimates.

Simulation of Volatility Trading using Nikkei Stock Index Option based on Stock Bulletin Board

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kodai Sasaki ◽  
Yui Hirose ◽  
Eiichi Umehara ◽  
Hirohiko Suwa ◽  
Yuki Ogawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Index ◽  
Bulletin Board ◽  
Index Option
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