Trend, Cycle and Non-Linear Trade-Off in the Euro Area 1972-2001

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alvaro Pinto Coelho de Aguiar ◽  
Manuel Mota Freitas Martins
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Non Linear

Inflation expectations matter more than unemployment

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Content Type

Significance The surge in inflation this year owes more to supply bottlenecks caused by the release of pent-up demand than to falling unemployment. In the decade before the pandemic, US unemployment more than halved and euro-area unemployment nearly halved, but inflation remained below target in both economic areas. Impacts Central banks face the dilemma of raising rates too early for growth and too late for inflation, and may struggle to dampen expectations. The threat of a possible revival of the pandemic will help temporarily to cool inflation expectations that have surged in 2021. The trade-off between unemployment and inflation that has been missing for many years may emerge again once the pandemic is finally over.

scholarly journals Non-Linear Dynamics in the Euro Area Demand for M1

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Calza ◽  
Andrea Zaghini
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Linear Dynamics ◽  
Non Linear
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