Database of Sovereign Defaults, 2017

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T. Beers ◽  
Jamshid Mavalwalla
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Defaults

Can Sovereign Defaults Be Forecasted?

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (4) ◽  
pp. 32-42
Author(s):  
David Anthony
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Defaults

scholarly journals Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (5) ◽  
pp. 574-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carmen M. Reinhart ◽  
Vincent Reinhart ◽  
Christoph Trebesch
Keyword(s):  
Capital Flows ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Financial Capital ◽  
Global Capital ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
Global Cycles

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises.

Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-664 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irina Balteanu ◽  
Aitor Erce
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Sovereign Defaults

scholarly journals r minus g negative

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (52) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Mauro ◽  
Jing Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Borrowing Costs ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
High Government ◽  
Traditional Assumption ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Sovereign Defaults ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.

SOVEREIGN DEFAULT, TRADE, AND TERMS OF TRADE

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grace Weishi Gu
Keyword(s):  
Default Risk ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Home Bias ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Sovereign Default ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Sovereign Defaults

Sovereign defaults are associated with income and trade reductions and terms-of-trade deterioration. This paper develops a two-country model to study the interactions between income, trade, terms of trade, and foreign-debt default risk and default events. Such default risk and events are costly because they adversely affect the demand for a borrower country’s intermediate goods exports and its income. Consequently, trade flows change due to the income loss and consumption home bias. The defaulter’s terms of trade also deteriorate endogenously, which accelerates its income and trade losses. The model produces procyclical imports, exports, terms of trade, and other empirical features of emerging countries’ business cycles and default episodes.

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