Debt and Default Risk Premium in Emerging Economies: New Evidence from a Panel Threshold Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ngan Tran
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Threshold Analysis ◽  
New Evidence

scholarly journals The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Goldbach ◽  
Christian Fahrholz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Fiscal Institutions ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Stability

Sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area hinges upon the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We analyse whether political events that worsen the SGP's credibility result in a shared default risk premium for all euro members, therefore leading to a joint deterioration of creditworthiness. We especially examine the decisions and statements of the Commission and the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers. Analysing daily data through the 1999–2005 period with an ARMA-GARCH model, we find the Commission plays a decisive role in affecting investor evaluations, where its credibility-strengthening decisions decrease volatility and statements signalling a weakening of fiscal credibility spark uncertainty on financial markets. Our results stress the importance of creating credible fiscal institutions that preserve sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area.

How to estimate expected credit losses – ECL – for provisioning under IFRS 9

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariya Gubareva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Expected Loss ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Term Structures ◽  
Ifrs 9 ◽  
Investment Grade

PurposeThis paper provides an objective approach based on available market information capable of reducing subjectivity, inherently present in the process of expected loss provisioning under the IFRS 9.Design/methodology/approachThis paper develops the two-step methodology. Calibrating the Credit Default Swap (CDS)-implied default probabilities to the through-the-cycle default frequencies provides average weights of default component in the spread for each forward term. Then, the impairment provisions are calculated for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors by distilling their pure default-risk term-structures from the respective term-structures of spreads. This research demonstrates how to estimate credit impairment allowances compliant with IFRS 9 framework.FindingsThis study finds that for both investment grade and high yield exposures, the weights of default component in the credit spreads always remain inferior to 33%. The research's outcomes contrast with several previous results stating that the default risk premium accounts at least for 40% of CDS spreads. The proposed methodology is applied to calculate IFRS 9 compliant provisions for a sample of investment grade and high yield obligors.Research limitations/implicationsMany issuers are not covered by individual Bloomberg valuation curves. However, the way to overcome this limitation is proposed.Practical implicationsThe proposed approach offers a clue for a better alignment of accounting practices, financial regulation and credit risk management, using expected loss metrics across diverse silos inside organizations. It encourages adopting the proposed methodology, illustrating its application to a set of bond exposures.Originality/valueNo previous research addresses impairment provisioning employing Bloomberg valuation curves. The study fills this gap.

scholarly journals Global value chains and technology transfer: new evidence from developing countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Rigo
Keyword(s):  
Technology Transfer ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Foreign Technology ◽  
Technology Firms ◽  
Transfer Of Technology ◽  
Enterprise Surveys ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract International trade has long been considered a channel of technology transfer. This paper draws from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys to provide a sample of 18 developing and emerging economies to investigate whether global value chains (GVCs) are a vehicle for the transfer of technology. It focuses on one specific channel for technology transfer, namely, the licensing of foreign technology. To control for the possible endogeneity of technology licensing, propensity score matching is combined with a difference-in-differences approach. The results show a positive effect of being involved in two-way trading on the licensing of foreign technology. Firms that become two-way traders are significantly more likely to use foreign-licensed technology than firms starting to export or import. This evidence suggests that the complexity associated with the mode of internationalisation determines the licensing of foreign technology. GVC participation also appears to foster firms’ performance, reflecting my findings that the acquisition of foreign technology leads to significant productivity improvements.

Gains from Integration? An Empirical Hint from the Eurozone

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 483-512
Author(s):  
Ku-Hsieh Chen ◽  
Jen-Chi Cheng ◽  
Joe-Ming Lee ◽  
Chih-Chun Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Productivity Gain ◽  
Group A ◽  
Degree Of Risk

Has the eurozone (EZ) really gained from integration? This study applied two econometric frameworks, mGARCH and gMMPI, to test this hypothesis, using panel data that span 1996–2014, a total of 19 years, involving the EZ, EU, G8, G20 and some emerging economies. The empirical outcomes initially showed that the EZ economies experienced neither superior output growth nor a better capital market return than non-EZ economies or the pre-EZ period. They further suggested that each EZ country had a higher degree of risk bearing and, as a group, a greater risk linkage. Moreover, the results indicated that the EZ had a higher productivity gain if the risk premium was counted as part of productivity. Nonetheless, the EZ did not show a substantial productivity gain when the effect of the risk factor was controlled. The ratio of risk bearing to risk premium gain was shown to be 1 to 0.97. The general conclusion is that, other than the risk premium, there was no extra productivity gain for the EZ from taking the risk.

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