scholarly journals Interactions between Fiscal Multipliers and Sovereign Risk Premium During Fiscal Consolidation: Model Based Assessment for the Euro Area

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Lalik
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Sovereign Risk ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Consolidation Model

scholarly journals Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers

2014 ◽  
Vol 124 (6) ◽  
pp. 953 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Blot ◽  
Marion Cochard ◽  
Jérôme Creel ◽  
Bruno Ducoudré ◽  
Danielle Schweisguth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers

scholarly journals Is there an alternative strategy for reducing public debt by 2032?

2014 ◽  
Vol 61 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christophe Blot ◽  
Marion Cochard ◽  
Jérôme Creel ◽  
Bruno Ducoudré ◽  
Danielle Schweisguth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simple Model ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Alternative Strategy ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Alternative Path ◽  
Fiscal Compact ◽  
Output Losses

EMU countries have engaged in fiscal consolidation since 2011. This strategy has proven to be costly in terms of GDP. This cost has been amplified by the fact that fiscal multipliers are high in time of crisis, as recently stressed by the literature. Within this context, we wonder whether there is an alternative strategy aiming at bringing back the debt ratio to 60% of GDP in 2032, meanwhile lowering output losses. To this end, we report simulations realized from a simple model describing the Eurozone and the timing for consolidation. Based on a pragmatic view of the fiscal compact, we find an alternative path for consolidation which achieves a 60% threshold for public debt over the next 20 years in most euro area countries.

scholarly journals Design of fiscal consolidation packages and model-based fiscal multipliers in Croatia

2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-61
Author(s):  
Milan Deskar-Skrbic ◽  
◽  
Darjan Milutinovic ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Model Based

The IMF, the UK Policy Debate, and Debt and Deficit Discourse

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Clift
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Policy Debate ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Policy Space ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Scientific Image ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Deep Recession ◽  
The Imf

This chapter charts changing character of the economic ideas informing fiscal policymaking in Britain, and Fund responses to them. Drawing on interviews with the Fund’s UK Missions and UK authorities, it shows how, despite the IMF’s prizing of its non-political, scientific image, its differing views of UK policy space and prioritization became the stuff of a contested politics. The central assumption of the coalition government’s construction of fiscal rectitude was that Britain faced a ‘crisis of debt’, yet the IMF did not share this view. Fund work on fiscal multipliers being higher during recessions, and the adverse effects of fiscal consolidation on growth, all had pointed relevance for UK policy. The coalition government saw little potential for activist fiscal policy in support of growth. In 2013 Blanchard accused the UK authorities of ‘playing with fire’ by pursuing excessively harsh austerity which threatened a prolonged and deep recession.

scholarly journals Volatility Modeling: An Overview of Equity Markets in the Euro Area during COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1212
Author(s):  
Pierdomenico Duttilo ◽  
Stefano Antonio Gattone ◽  
Tonio Di Di Battista
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Volatility Modeling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Daily Returns

Volatility is the most widespread measure of risk. Volatility modeling allows investors to capture potential losses and investment opportunities. This work aims to examine the impact of the two waves of COVID-19 infections on the return and volatility of the stock market indices of the euro area countries. The study also focuses on other important aspects such as time-varying risk premium and leverage effect. This investigation employed the Threshold GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean model with exogenous dummy variables. Daily returns of the euro area stock markets indices from 4th January 2016 to 31st December 2020 has been used for the analysis. The results reveal that euro area stock markets respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, the first wave of COVID-19 infections had a notable impact on stock market volatility of euro area countries with middle-large financial centres while the second wave had a significant impact only on stock market volatility of Belgium.

scholarly journals The euro area's common default risk: Evidence on the Commission's impact on European fiscal affairs

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 507-528 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Goldbach ◽  
Christian Fahrholz
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Decisive Role ◽  
Fiscal Institutions ◽  
Growth Pact ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Stability

Sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area hinges upon the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). We analyse whether political events that worsen the SGP's credibility result in a shared default risk premium for all euro members, therefore leading to a joint deterioration of creditworthiness. We especially examine the decisions and statements of the Commission and the Council of Economic and Finance Ministers. Analysing daily data through the 1999–2005 period with an ARMA-GARCH model, we find the Commission plays a decisive role in affecting investor evaluations, where its credibility-strengthening decisions decrease volatility and statements signalling a weakening of fiscal credibility spark uncertainty on financial markets. Our results stress the importance of creating credible fiscal institutions that preserve sovereign creditworthiness within the euro area.

scholarly journals Measuring connectedness of euro area sovereign risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebekka Buse ◽  
Melanie Schienle
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Risk
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