Efficient Estimation of Expected Stock Price Returns

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dilip B. Madan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Efficient Estimation

Forecast of stock price fluctuation based on the perspective of volume information in stock and exchange market

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoudong Chen ◽  
Yan-lin Sun ◽  
Yang Liu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Efficient Estimation ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Market Volume ◽  
Non Parametric

Purpose In the process of discussing the relationship between volume and price in the stock market, the purpose of this paper is to consider how to take the flow of foreign capital into consideration, to determine whether the inclusion of volume information really contributes to the prediction of the volatility of the stock price. Design/methodology/approach By comparing the relative advantages and disadvantages of the two main non-parametric methods mainstream, and taking the characteristics of the time series of the volume into consideration, the stochastic volatility with Volume (SV-VOL) model based on the APF-LW simulation method is used in the end, to explore and implement a more efficient estimation algorithm. And the volume is incorporated into the model for submersible quantization, by which the problem of insufficient use of volume information in previous research has been solved, which means that the development of the SV model is realized. Findings Through the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm, the effective estimation of the SV-VOL model is realized by programming. It is found that the stock market volume information is helpful to the prediction of the volatility of the stock price. The exchange market volume information affects the stock returns and the price-volume relationship, which is achieved indirectly through the net capital into stock market. The current exchange devaluation and fluctuation are not conducive to the restoration and recovery of the stock market. Research limitations/implications It is still in the exploratory stage that whether the inclusion of volume information really contributes to the prediction of the volatility of the stock price, and how to incorporate the exchange market volume information. This paper tries to determine the information weight of the exchange market volume according to the direct and indirect channels from the perspective of causality. The relevant practices and conclusions need to be tested and perfected. Practical implications Previous studies have neglected the influence of the information contained in the exchange market volume on the volatility of stock prices. To a certain extent, this research makes a useful supplement to the existing research, especially in the aspects of research problems, research paradigms, research methods and research conclusion. Originality/value SV model with volume information can not only effectively solve the inefficiency of information use problem contained in volume in traditional practice, but also further improve the estimation accuracy of the model by introducing the exchange market volume information into the model through weighted processing, which is a useful supplement to the existing literature. The SMC algorithm realized by programming is helpful to the further advancement and development of non-parametric algorithms. And this paper has made a useful attempt to determine the weight of the exchange market volume information, and some useful conclusions are drawn.

ANALISIS PENGARUH INFLASI, KURS DAN IHSG TERHADAP RETURN REKSA DANA SAHAM PT NIKKO SECURITIES INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Muhammad Rois Rois ◽  
Manarotul Fatati Fatati ◽  
Winda Ihda Magfiroh
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Stock Price Index

This study aims to determine the effect of Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) to Return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Stock Fund period 2014-2017. The study used secondary data obtained through documentation in the form of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia Monthly Net Asset (NAB) report. Data analysis is used with quantitative analysis, multiple linear regression analysis using eviews 9. Population and sample in this research are PT Nikko Securities Indonesia. The result of multiple linear regression analysis was the coefficient of determination (R2) showed the result of 0.123819 or 12%. This means that the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) variables can influence the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund of 12% and 88% is influenced by other variables. Based on the result of the research, the variables of inflation and exchange rate have a negative and significant effect toward the return of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia's equity fund. While the variable of Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has a negative but not significant effect toward Return of Equity Fund of PT Nikko Securities Indonesia

Family Firms and Stock Price Crash Risk

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 77-86
Author(s):  
Hae-Young Ryu ◽  
Soo-Joon Chae
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Family Firms ◽  
Crash Risk

Using Machine Learning Algorithms on Prediction of Stock Price

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 84-99
Author(s):  
Li-Pang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Historical Database ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

In this paper, we investigate analysis and prediction of the time-dependent data. We focus our attention on four different stocks are selected from Yahoo Finance historical database. To build up models and predict the future stock price, we consider three different machine learning techniques including Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). By treating close price, open price, daily low, daily high, adjusted close price, and volume of trades as predictors in machine learning methods, it can be shown that the prediction accuracy is improved.

PENGARUH FREKUENSI PERDAGANGAN PADA SEKTOR PROPERTY DAN REAL ESTATE TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (02) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Adri Wihananto
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Trading Frequency ◽  
Important Thing ◽  
Know How ◽  
Stock Value ◽  
Measuring Frequency ◽  
Case Based

Trading frequency can be said as the implementation from trader of commerce. This case based on positive or negative trader reaction given by trader information.  Stock trading in BEI always fluctuate with price of volume value and frequency particularly. Frequency itself shows the company  involved or not. In trading frequency, if the indicator frequency it self shown the higher point, it means better. In spite of the most important thing is how the fluctuation or value conversion itself. On the frequencies we also could see which stocks is interested by the investor. When trading frequency high, it  may be create sense of interest from investors.The aim of this research, in order to know how far the effect of trading frequency (X) with stock value (Y) using cover stock value. The information used is begin 2008 with sample from twelve property and real estate companies. According to the research can be conclude from twelve companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2008, 75 % of trading frequency samples doesn’t have signification degree between trading frequency and stock value. This case can be explained count on smaller than t tableEvaluation of this research is the trading measuring frequency at property sector and real estate not influence to stock priceKeywords : Trading Frequency, Stock Price 

Analisis Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan dengan Menggunakan Pendekatan Economic Value Added (EVA) dan Market Value Added (MVA) (Studi Kasus pada PT Astra International, Tbk. Periode Tahun 20082012)

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Market Value Added ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study is a qualitative study using a case study approach to the PT. Astra International, Tbk. The object of this research is PT. Astra International, Tbk. PT. Astra International, Tbk is a company engaged in six business sectors, namely: automotive,financial services, heavy equipment, mining and energy, agribusiness, information technology, infrastructure and logistics. Researchers chose PT. Astra International, Tbk as research objects due in the year 2012, PT. Astra International, Tbk managed to rank first in the list of 100 Best Companies to Go Public by the 2011 financial performance of Fortune magazines Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data, the financial statements. Astra International, Tbk 20082012. Other secondary data used is the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), and thecompanys stock price began the year 20082012. This study aims to determine the companys financial performance by the use of EVA and MVA approach, therefore the data analysis technique used is the EVA and MVA. Based on the value EVA of the year 2008 2012, PT. Astra International, Tbk has good financial performance that managed to meet the expectations of the company and the investors. Based on the value of MVA during the years 20082012, PT. Astra International, Tbk managed to create wealth and prosperity for companies and investors. It concluded that financial performance. AstraInternational, Tbk for five years was satisfactory.

Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Budiandru Budiandru ◽  
Sari Yuniarti
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Investment Financing ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Operational Activities

Investment financing is one of the operational activities of Islamic banking to encourage the real sector. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic turmoil on investment financing, analyze the response to investment financing, and analyze each variable's contribution in explaining the diversity of investment financing. This study uses monthly time series data from 2009 to 2020 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis. The results show that the exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates significantly affect Islamic banking investment financing in the long term. The response to investment financing is the fastest to achieve stability when it responds to shocks to the composite stock price index. Inflation is the most significant contribution in explaining diversity in investment financing. Islamic banking should increase the proportion of funding for investment. Customers can have a larger business scale to encourage economic growth, with investment financing increasing.JEL Classification: E22, G11, G24How to Cite:Budiandru., & Yuniarti, S. (2020). Economic Turmoil in Islamic Banking Investment. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(2), xx – xx. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i2.17206.

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