How Does Breastfeeding Affect IQ? Applying the Classical Model of Structured Expert Judgment

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail Colson ◽  
Roger M. Cooke
Keyword(s):  
Classical Model ◽  
Expert Judgment

scholarly journals Return Level Analysis of the Hanumante River Using Structured Expert Judgment: A Reconstruction of Historical Water Levels

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3229
Author(s):  
Paulina E. Kindermann ◽  
Wietske S. Brouwer ◽  
Amber van Hamel ◽  
Mick van Haren ◽  
Rik P. Verboeket ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Return Level ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Rain Events ◽  
Level Analysis

Like other cities in the Kathmandu Valley, Bhaktapur faces rapid urbanisation and population growth. Rivers are negatively impacted by uncontrolled settlements in flood-prone areas, lowering permeability, decreasing channels widths, and waste blockage. All these issues, along with more extreme rain events during the monsoon due to climate change, have led to increased flooding in Bhaktapur, especially by the Hanumante River. For a better understanding of flood risk, the first step is a return level analysis. For this, historical data are essential. Unfortunately, historical records of water levels are non-existent for the Hanumante River. We measured water levels and discharge on a regular basis starting from the 2019 monsoon (i.e., June). To reconstruct the missing historical data needed for a return level analysis, this research introduces the Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ). By employing SEJ, we were able to reconstruct historical water level data. Expert assessments were validated using the limited data available. Based on the reconstructed data, it was possible to estimate the return periods of extreme water levels of the Hanumante River by fitting a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Using this distribution, we estimated that a water level of about 3.5 m has a return period of ten years. This research showed that, despite considerable uncertainty in the results, the SEJ method has potential for return level analyses.

A semi-classical model of regular inflationary cosmology

2021 ◽  
pp. 100823
Author(s):  
Biplab Paik ◽  
M.Yu. Khlopov ◽  
Mehedi Kalam ◽  
Saibal Ray
Keyword(s):  
Classical Model ◽  
Inflationary Cosmology

scholarly journals To Weight or Not to Weight, That Is the Question: The Design of a Composite Indicator of Landscape Fragmentation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3208
Author(s):  
Andrea De Montis ◽  
Vittorio Serra ◽  
Giovanna Calia ◽  
Daniele Trogu ◽  
Antonio Ledda
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Expert Judgment ◽  
Landscape Fragmentation ◽  
Composite Indicator ◽  
Per Se ◽  
Higher Sensitivity

Composite indicators (CIs), i.e., combinations of many indicators in a unique synthetizing measure, are useful for disentangling multisector phenomena. Prominent questions concern indicators’ weighting, which implies time-consuming activities and should be properly justified. Landscape fragmentation (LF), the subdivision of habitats in smaller and more isolated patches, has been studied through the composite index of landscape fragmentation (CILF). It was originally proposed by us as an unweighted combination of three LF indicators for the study of the phenomenon in Sardinia, Italy. In this paper, we aim at presenting a weighted release of the CILF and at developing the Hamletian question of whether weighting is worthwhile or not. We focus on the sensitivity of the composite to different algorithms combining three weighting patterns (equalization, extraction by principal component analysis, and expert judgment) and three indicators aggregation rules (weighted average mean, weighted geometric mean, and weighted generalized geometric mean). The exercise provides the reader with meaningful results. Higher sensitivity values signal that the effort of weighting leads to more informative composites. Otherwise, high robustness does not mean that weighting was not worthwhile. Weighting per se can be beneficial for more acceptable and viable decisional processes.

scholarly journals An Incompressible Polymer Fluid Interacting with a Koiter Shell

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominic Breit ◽  
Prince Romeo Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Moving Boundary ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Elastic Shell ◽  
Planck Equation ◽  
Navier Stokes ◽  
Flexible Shell ◽  
Navier Stokes Equation ◽  
Shell System ◽  
Forward Equation ◽  
Polymer Fluid

AbstractWe study a mutually coupled mesoscopic-macroscopic-shell system of equations modeling a dilute incompressible polymer fluid which is evolving and interacting with a flexible shell of Koiter type. The polymer constitutes a solvent-solute mixture where the solvent is modelled on the macroscopic scale by the incompressible Navier–Stokes equation and the solute is modelled on the mesoscopic scale by a Fokker–Planck equation (Kolmogorov forward equation) for the probability density function of the bead-spring polymer chain configuration. This mixture interacts with a nonlinear elastic shell which serves as a moving boundary of the physical spatial domain of the polymer fluid. We use the classical model by Koiter to describe the shell movement which yields a fully nonlinear fourth order hyperbolic equation. Our main result is the existence of a weak solution to the underlying system which exists until the Koiter energy degenerates or the flexible shell approaches a self-intersection.

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