Dating the Financial Cycle: A Wavelet Proposition

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Ardila ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Financial Cycle

scholarly journals Financial cycle − A critical analysis of the methodology for its identification

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-116
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kurowski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Critical Perspective ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Economic Justification ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Abstract While the legitimacy of the concept of the financial cycle (as distinct from the business cycle) in research and economic policy after the experience of the global financial crisis raises no concerns, the methodology for its application has become a subject of discussion. The purpose of this article is to indicate which research methods dominate in identifying a financial cycle and which methodological traps accompany them. The low level of critical perspective on the methods used to identify cycles often results in conclusions that have no economic justification and may result in erroneous decisions in economic policy and central bank practice. The case study carried out in the article confirms that the key elements in identifying a financial cycle are part of a long-term series covering at least two lengths of the financial cycle. In addition, because the results may be sensitive to the type of filter used, it is important not to rely on a single variable but rather to build indexes that take into account a number of them (including those obtained using filtration methods).

scholarly journals Spillover Effect of Global Financial Cycle To Asset Markets in Asean-5 Countries: A Structural VAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (02) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sri Andaiyani ◽  
Telisa Aulia Falianty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>An upsurge and volatility of capital flows to Emerging Asian Economies indicated that there is the potential effect of global financial cycle to emerging market. It provides an overview of investor risk aversion in short term investment after financial crisis 2008. Global financial cycle could have a significant impact to asset prices, including equity prices and property prices. Rey (2015) has triggered an interesting discussion about global financial cycle. She found that there was a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and credit growth. This cycle was co</em><em>‐</em><em>moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Therefore, this study attempts to analyze empirically global financial cycle shocks, measured by the VIX, on equity prices and property prices in ASEAN-5, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Philippines. We estimate quarterly frequency data from Q1 1990 to Q2 2016 with Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The result of this study showed that global financial cycle has a negative significant impact on the ASEAN-5 asset markets, in spite of the response of shock differs by country and size. This result is consistent with ASEAN-5 as small open economies that remain vulnerable to the global factor. This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, we identify not only cyclical expansions or contraction in asset markets but also the impact of global financial cycle to asset markets in ASEAN-5 countries. Second, we investigate whether there are heterogeneous responses of ASEAN-5 countries to global financial cycle shocks. Third, we also identify the pattern of cycle in ASEAN-5 countries</em>.</p><p><strong><em>J</em></strong><strong><em>EL Classification: </em></strong>F30, F37, F42</p><strong><em>Keywords: </em></strong><em>ASEAN, Asset Markets, Global Financial Cycle, SVAR</em>

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGGUNAAN SISTEM BARCODE UNTUK MENDUKUNG PAPERLESS DALAM MENINGKATKAN KEUNTUNGAN FINANSIAL DAN OPERASIONAL

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Danny Ong
Keyword(s):  
Employee Performance ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Operating Costs ◽  
Business World ◽  
Operational Process ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
World Today ◽  
Operational Costs ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
Physical Paper

The use of physical paper in the business world today has become a consideration as a waste that can affect the company's financial cycle. The saving of using documents without using physical paper is one way to reduce the company's operating costs, especially for companies that have offices and also some factories in running their businesses. The operational process of non-physical documents is supported by the use of barcodes so that the use of paper is very minimal and management can reduce the company's operational costs to the maximum. This study aims to make observations and analysis of barcode usage related to the effectiveness and efficiency in terms of employee performance and especially financial savings. The results of the study show that in terms of operational expenses of the company that there are benefits of cost savings on physical paper purchases and also employee performance is quite significantly increased in carrying out daily operations because entering data can be done semi-automatically.

scholarly journals Holding the government to account for its finances: the “Unsung” heroes of the UK parliament scrutiny unit

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence Ferry ◽  
Larry Honeysett ◽  
Henry Midgley
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
Accounting Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Secondary Literature ◽  
Vital Part ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Members Of Parliament ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk

PurposeThis paper describes the role and remit of the Scrutiny Unit, which assists members of parliament (MPs) with the analysis of accounting data.Design/methodology/approachThe analysis is developed through an understanding of the secondary literature and practical experience of the work of the Unit.FindingsThe Scrutiny Unit is an unappreciated and yet vital part of the way in which financial scrutiny operates within the UK parliament. It translates to MPs key financial and economic documents including the budget and accounts. It is a unique institution, covering the entire financial cycle of approval and accountability within parliament.Originality/valueThis is the first descriptive piece on the Unit in an accounting journal and contributes to our understanding of how financial accountability works within the UK parliament.

Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Filardo ◽  
Hans Genberg ◽  
Boris Hofmann
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Monetary Analysis

A Theory of the Global Financial Cycle

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (410) ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Scott Davis ◽  
◽  
Eric van Wincoop ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Cycle

Improving the predictability of stock returns with global financial cycle and oil price in oil exporting African countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwasegun B. Adekoya ◽  
Gideon O. Ogunbowale ◽  
Ademola B. Akinseye ◽  
Gabriel O. Oduyemi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Financial Cycle

Capital Controls and the Global Financial Cycle

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marina Lovchikova ◽  
Johannes Matschke
Keyword(s):  
Capital Controls ◽  
Financial Cycle

The Effectiveness of Credit-to-GDP Gap as a Leading Indicator of Banking Crises in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-37
Author(s):  
Javaid Akhter ◽  
Deepak Tandon ◽  
Gaurav Kulshreshtha
Keyword(s):  
Primary Objective ◽  
Regulatory Framework ◽  
Financial Deepening ◽  
Banking Supervision ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Main Indicator ◽  
Credit Cycle ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Gdp Gap

As per the 15th progress report on adoption of the BASEL regulatory framework, published in October 2018 by Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 26 member jurisdictions now have final rules in force for CCCB. In India, the final rules on CCCB came into force from 5th Feb, 2014; however, the buffer has not been activated by RBI till now as in its assessment, the Credit to GDP gap and other indicators currently do not warrant activation of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCCB). The Basel III regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems, released in December 2010, had introduced the CCCB aimed at strengthening banks defense against the build-up of systemic vulnerabilities. The CCCB is a pre-emptive measure that requires banks to build-up capital gradually as imbalances in the credit market develop. The primary objective of CCCB is to avoid any banking industry stress resulting from wide fluctuations in the credit cycle using the credit-to-GDP gap. In doing so, it raises the cost of capital for banks resulting in moderation of credit demand as well as dissuasion of banks from participating in binge credit growth during the buildup phase itself. The authors have calculated the credit-to-GDP gap (which has been accepted as the main Indicator) for India using the available data and conclude that the buffer guide has historically worked as a reliable EWI in the Indian context. The authors have also concluded that while CCCB is an instrument to protect banks from the bust phase of the financial cycle, it is not an instrument to manage the financial cycle, even if it may potentially have a smoothing impact. An important implication of implementing CCCB using the credit-to-GDP gap as the main indicator for banks and EMEs is that it may hinder beneficial financial deepening, if it is used to actively manage the financial cycle. The authors recommend including the attribution of the Credit-to-GDP GAP w.r.t., the changes attributable to GDP growth, as well as attributable to changes in credit growth in the decision making process to activate CCCB.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document