scholarly journals Is Fiscal Consolidation Self-Defeating? A Panel-VAR Analysis for the Euro Area Countries

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Grazia Attinasi ◽  
Luca Metelli
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Var Analysis

All factors point to left-right coalition in Portugal

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Opinion Poll ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Electoral Cycle ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject The outlook for the October 4 parliamentary election. Significance The October 4 parliamentary election will be the first since Portugal exited its euro-area/IMF bailout. The poll launches a Portuguese electoral cycle which includes the January 2016 presidential election, and a series of parliamentary elections in euro-area post-bailout states, with Spain and Ireland to follow. Opinion polls suggest a tight race between the governing two-party centre-right alliance and the main opposition Socialists (PS), but -- in contrast to other bailout states -- no breakthrough by any new or radical force. Impacts Given the closeness of parties' opinion poll standings, the campaign period could be decisive. Whatever its make-up, the next government is likely to be committed to fiscal consolidation and Portugal's post-bailout obligations. An election win for Portugal's governing centre-right would be a pre-election fillip for its counterpart in Spain.

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