The Layman's Summary of the Expected Bond Return Literature

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Sabol
Keyword(s):  
Bond Return

Bond Risk Premiums with Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Bianchi ◽  
Matthias Büchner ◽  
Andrea Tamoni
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Yield Information ◽  
Bond Return ◽  
Bond Risk

Abstract We show that machine learning methods, in particular, extreme trees and neural networks (NNs), provide strong statistical evidence in favor of bond return predictability. NN forecasts based on macroeconomic and yield information translate into economic gains that are larger than those obtained using yields alone. Interestingly, the nature of unspanned factors changes along the yield curve: stock- and labor-market-related variables are more relevant for short-term maturities, whereas output and income variables matter more for longer maturities. Finally, NN forecasts correlate with proxies for time-varying risk aversion and uncertainty, lending support to models featuring both channels.

Residual Equity Momentum Spillover in Global Corporate Bond Markets

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Return Predictability ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Corporate Bond Market ◽  
Pricing Factors ◽  
Bond Return ◽  
Abnormal Pattern ◽  
Additional Support ◽  
Investment Grade

This article presents an improved equity momentum measure for corporate bonds, using the euro-denominated global investment-grade corporate bond market from 2000 to 2016. The author documents economically meaningful and statistically significant corporate bond return predictability. In contrast to the widely used total equity return, momentum as measured by the residual (idiosyncratic) equity return appears to further enhance risk-adjusted performance of corporate bond investors. Additional support for this conjecture is obtained from tests for various asset pricing factors and transaction costs, as exposure to these risk factors cannot explain this abnormal pattern in returns.

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